Analyzing NFL Offenses (1985-2022) - Rushing Attempts

Photo: Aaron Doster, USA Today Sports

Editor's Note: Analyzing NFL Offenses (1985-2022) is a three-part series. We recommend reading them in this order:

1. Introduction
2. Rushing Attempts
3. Passing Attempts

Running backs attaining the workhorse or bellcow workloads become important in dynasty leagues. When you can assure young running backs on a high-powered offense, they make you a contender. There is hesitancy when addressing the running back position, especially in dynasty startups. This article will note the total rushing attempts per year dating back to 1985.

If you are reading this article before the introductory article, I would suggest you read it first. The introductory article provides information to apply here. This article will note how the trends apply to 2023 and the foreseeable future. If you are reading this article in 2031, there are still nuggets of information to take in and apply.

Introduction

The days are gone when teams hand the ball off to a running back and call it football. The over-glorification of highlight reel plays may be a modern-day factor. I digress. We do not need to get deep into a dynasty article. Facts to consider when addressing the running back position:

• Age
• Environment
• Are they actually good

Below is a visual representation of rushing attempts per season dating back to 1985.

We are seeing an increasing trend in league average rushing attempts. This must be meaningful. Here are important takeaways from the graph:

• Most attempts (1985):
  • 487.0
• Fewest attempts (2018):
  • 414.8
• Average:
  • 445.1

However, in 2022 we saw 464.1 rushing attempts. This is a drastic increase and only 22.9 attempts from the most in a single year. Also, this is the sixth most attempts amongst the 38 years analyzed. It does indicate the league is rushing the ball more.

Age

You have likely heard about the running back age apex. This is a time for a running back where they hit a point in their life where they will lose value and production. I wrote about this topic a few years back, if you want to read it you can here. The SparkNotes: great running backs will perform beyond the age apex, while bad running backs will get replaced. The apex involves a human-made value system, and within it are edges to exploit. The value is assigned to every running back, assuming every running back declines. LaDanian Tomlinson averaged 326.6 rushing attempts, 1,439.2 yards, and 17.8 touchdowns between his age-25 and age-29 seasons. You would have missed out on five top-tier seasons.

But what about Todd Gurley? He hit the age-apex and started to decline. He was considered a “great”, right? I will address this later, for now, back to the information at hand.

Environment

Coaching changes will happen, resulting in new coaches being hired. This is an example of a variable to note when addressing dynasty players. A running back may have been favored by Coach A. However, Coach B is hired and changes up the scheme.

It is plausible for a running back to contain a unique skillset not yet exploited within an offensive scheme. Cordarrelle Patterson was mis-utilized until his age-30 season, where he saw 153 rushing attempts and 69 targets. This backpacks off how the NFL evolves; unfortunately, players may be ahead of their time.

Are they actually good

Likely the most important factor, they need to be talented. There are instances where a player will receive a large workload. Understanding why this happened will be important. Did they receive the workload because the starter sustained an injury? There are times when just-a-guy, also known as JAG, will be given opportunities.

Bottomline, invest in talented players. There will be situations where a player is not in the ideal scheme – think Kyle Pitts. An outstanding talent but is in a run-first scheme with a coach trying to win football games. This is a reminder the NFL does not care about the make-believe game we play. I know he is a tight end, and this is a running back article. Forgive me.

Rushing attempts hidden agenda

You are being fooled. Rushing attempts are increasing, but it seems at the quarterbacks' expense. Sure, rushing attempts have increased. This does not mean the NFL is bringing back the pound-and-run styles.

• In 2022 the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons were two teams emphasizing the run game. This goes against the original point I am trying to make regarding rushing quarterbacks. Yes, Justin Fields had significant rushing attempts – it will be important to note designed runs versus quarterback scrambles. Fields had 38% of his carries from designed runs. David Montgomery (201) and Khalil Herbert (129) were still included in the run game.
• Maybe NFL offenses are like fashion, popular at one time to only wait 20 years to bring back.

I am sure there are additional examples over the years, I just wanted to point out a counter-example. Let’s look at why quarterbacks are affecting the trend. I looked at the top 12 fantasy finishes dating back to 2013. This is when FantasyPros first recorded fantasy finishes:

The graph depicts why quarterbacks may be an important factor in the increase in rushing attempts. Over the last four seasons, the top-12 quarterbacks have rushed for 71.6 attempts per season.