Analyzing NFL Offenses (1985-2022) - Introduction

Photo: Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports

Editor's Note: Analyzing NFL Offenses (1985-2022) is a three-part series. We recommend reading them in this order:

1. Introduction
2. Rushing Attempts
3. Passing Attempts

Comprehension of how the average NFL team prefers their offense to be used must be a fundamental understanding of dynasty football. This is likely confusing at first, so hopefully, this article will articulate the nugget of information to apply across your leagues. This article is the introduction to a series. I will analyze passing and rushing attempts per season dating back to 1985. The forthcoming articles will state notable changes and why this is potentially happening.

The NFL has evolved over time. I think this concept is easy to understand. What does it mean? This is the information we need to know in dynasty leagues.

Introduction

The NFL is often referred to as a "copycat league". This terminology is attempting to paint a picture for you. It is implying teams utilize the same fundamental style or concepts within their offense and scheme. I have zero idea if what I am saying is true. I just feel there has to be a reason the data provided is, well, what it represents.

Recently, Deebo Samuel has been utilized outside of their positional tag. This does not mean they were the first to be utilized this way, recency bias will be a factor when applying knowledge for the immediate future. In 2011, Percy Havin had 52 rushing attempts to complement 121 targets. Tavon Austin was drafted in 2013 to be utilized similarly. Unfortunately, he never lived up to the expectations. This does not mean he was a bust or failure. Rather, it begs the question if his specific skill set was ahead of its time.

History of NFL Offenses

Below is a visual representation of the average passing and rushing attempts per season dating back to 1985. As stated, the attempts are averaged for a 17-game season. This will further represent the existing NFL season.

Here are observations from the graph:

• Rushing dominated early (1985 - 2009)
• Passing has recently dominated
• Rushing is trending up

Passing attempts have always been higher than rushing attempts. Looking in depth at the trends will provide additional clarity. The evolution of the game will naturally happen. I would like to think coaching staffs would like to find innovative and creative ways to exploit their players’ talents. Each defensive matchup will bring unique challenges and opportunities. This also means the defensive side is playing the same game. Talent is a cycle catching up on both ends. When an offensive scheme exploits defenses, this is when defensive coordinators and scouts will attempt to counter. When the defense counters, offensive coordinators and scouts will attempt to find the new "thing".

The cycle is a never-ending loop. The existing time is the ultimate variable. The modern-day Isaiah Simmons failed in the past – but why would an athletic middle linebacker who could play in the secondary be needed when offenses were pounding the rock? Arizona’s new head coach has reportedly been exclusively working him at defensive back during the 2023 organized team activities (OTA). I am sorry if you do not understand defensive references – neither do I – I just play Madden and applied his athleticism to defense for an additional example. Moving on back to the offense.

The important nugget of information to take in, oftentimes a player may possess a unique skill set that offenses do not understand how to utilize correctly. It will be imperative to have a fundamental understanding of an asset’s skill set and the current NFL trends or usage.

Passing Attempts

The passing attempts per season are averaged for a 17-game season. This accounts for the modern-day schedule. Since 1985, passing has been on an upwards trend. The game has clearly evolved since then. This is shown from the chart depicting passing attempts per season. Here is a concise version:

There needs to be a reason why passing attempts have increased over time. The kernel of truth within this should be utilized in your dynasty leagues. If the league is passing more, this may require an emphasis on wide receiver and/or tight end talent, right? This is correlation, not causation. The running back position has evolved over time. We know there is a pass-catching specialist on NFL teams. This will be an additional benefit in PPR leagues.

• High-powered offenses
  • Schemes, coaching
• Wide receiver talent
  • In 2022, teammates Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle finished as WR1s in PPR scoring.
• Tight end talent
  • In 2021, Rob Gronkowski finished as TE7 despite playing alongside Mike Evans (WR9) and Chris Godwin (WR15) in PPR scoring.
• Pass-catching running backs
  • Christian McCaffrey had back-to-back 100+ reception seasons (2018-2019).

I will have an article solely focusing on passing attempts and the distribution within. This current article is introductory to help mold the supplementary articles.