Week 1 First Look

Photo: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports

In our Wednesday morning first look at the Week 1 Main Slate, we want to take a big-picture view of the slate overall as a first step in our preparation process. The goal here is to give you some information-packed visualizations to quickly set the table for the much more in-depth breakdowns that will come later in the week. In addition, we want to start to identify the players who are most likely to be popular so we can narrow our focus and start digging deeper into some of the players who stand out as potential top options.

The Week 1 article is going to have some elements that you can expect to see every week going forward, such as the implied team totals and a breakdown of players who are popping in early point per dollar projections for DraftKings and FanDuel. The Week 1 first look is also going to be different in many ways than what you can expect later in the year. We do not have data from the previous week(s) to consider and analyze, so some weekly features will not appear until Week 2 or later. Given the unique nature of Week 1 and the early release of pricing, we are going to focus on what has changed since DraftKings and FanDuel released prices last month. As a way to speed the transition from our offseason focus on redraft, we are going to compare redraft ADP to main slate salaries and explore where the biggest differences have emerged. Doing so will help us identify players who have seen their stock rise in the last month and who may present great Week 1 daily fantasy values.

Implied Team Totals and Spreads

The image below plots each team's Week 1 implied team total and against by how much they are favored (negative numbers for underdogs).

• The upper right-hand quadrant shows teams that are favorites and expected to score an above-average amount of points. Players from these teams are prime targets for our DFS lineups this week. The Ravens, Chargers, Seahawks, Vikings, Jaguars, and Commanders should be amongst the most popular teams to target this weekend. We should generally be confident in both the running and passing games.
• The bottom right-hand quadrant contains teams that are favored but playing in what are expected to be low-scoring games. These are spots in which we may want to target running backs, given the positive game script and a decreased chance of a shootout. With the Saints, 49ers, and Falcons each falling into this category, things set up well for Jamaal Williams, Christian McCaffrey, and Bijan Robinson in Week 1.
• The upper left-hand quadrant contains teams that are underdogs but still expected to score an above-average number of points. These games have shootout potential. We typically want to target the passing games of teams in this quadrant. The Dolphins have a pair of top receiving options in a great spot -- Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The potentially rejuvenated Browns passing offense should also be on our radar, especially Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, and Elijah Moore.
• The bottom left-hand quadrant contains underdogs not expected to score much. We want to approach rostering players from these teams with caution, though there are always lower-priced plays worth considering in spite of less-than-ideal team totals.