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In our Wednesday morning first look at the Week 2 Main Slate, we want to take a big-picture view as a first step in our preparation process. The goal here is to give you some information-packed visualizations to quickly set the table for the much more in-depth breakdowns and player recommendations that will come later in the week. In addition, we want to start to identify the players who are most likely to be popular so we can narrow our focus and start digging deeper into some of the players who stand out as potential top options.
Our Week 2 First Look will start out with a look at what the lines and totals tell us about teams to target. We are also going to identify the players that are popping out as top values in early-week projections and make note of the news items we will be tracking throughout the week that will have the biggest impact on the slate. Lastly, we will dig into some Week 1 usage stats.
Implied Team Totals and Spreads
The visualization below shows each team’s implied team total and how much they are favored by (negative numbers for underdogs).
- The upper right-hand quadrant shows teams that are favorites and expected to score an above-average amount of points. Players from these teams are prime targets for our DFS lineups this week. With the Cowboys, 49ers, and Bills opening as huge favorites with strong implied team totals, the script sets up well for Tony Pollard, Christian McCaffrey, and James Cook to have big weeks.
- The bottom right-hand quadrant contains teams that are favored but in what are expected to be low-scoring games. A.J. Dillon could be in for a heavy workload if the Packers can get out to an early lead.
- The upper left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs but still expected to score an above-average number of points in games with shootout potential. The game script should set up well for the passing games of these offenses. We saw the Dolphins in this quadrant last week, and Miami ended up being the key team on the slate. Jacksonville is the lone team here this week, and it could be a big week for Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley.
- The bottom left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs and not expected to score much. We want to approach players from these teams with caution. This quadrant is loaded this week, and it includes many teams with running games we typically want to target (Titans, Jets, Raiders, and Falcons).
Early Point Per Dollar Standouts
The top quarterback values this week are spread out in price, with Baker Mayfield leading the pack due to his $5,100 price tag. We also like Josh Allen to bounce back from the terrible Monday Night Football showing. Aside from Christian McCaffrey at $8,900, most of the top running back values are priced between $5,500 and $6,500. A pair of rookies, Puka Nacua and Zay Flowers, are the standout wide receiver values this week. At tight end, the top five values are each priced between $3,000 and $3,500.
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