DFS Week 4 First Look

Photo: Brad Rempel, USA Today Sports

In our Wednesday morning first look at the Week 4 Main Slate, we want to take a big-picture view as a first step in our preparation process. The goal here is to give you some information-packed visualizations to quickly set the table for the much more in-depth breakdowns and player recommendations that will come later in the week. In addition, we want to start to identify the players who are most likely to be popular so we can narrow our focus and start digging deeper into some of the players who stand out as potential top options.

Our Week 4 First Look will start out with a look at what the lines and totals tell us about teams to target. We are also going to identify the players that are popping out as top values in early-week projections and make note of the news items we will be tracking throughout the week that will have the biggest impact on the slate. Lastly, we will dig into some Week 3 usage stats.

Implied Team Totals and Spreads

The above visualization shows each team’s implied team total and how much they are favored (negative numbers for underdogs).

• The upper right-hand quadrant shows teams that are favorites and expected to score an above-average amount of points. Players from these teams are prime targets for our DFS lineups this week. San Francisco is a massive favorite against the Cardinals with a 29.3-point implied team total. This would seem to be a fantastic spot for Christian McCaffrey, but we thought similarly about Tony Pollard last week. The Cowboys, Eagles, and Chargers are also checking a lot of boxes this week.
• The bottom right-hand quadrant contains teams that are favored but in what are expected to be low-scoring games. These are spots that potentially favor running backs. Alvin Kamara returns to the lineup after a three-game suspension to a game in which the Saints are solid 3-point favorites.
• The upper left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs but still expected to score an above-average number of points in games with shootout potential. The game script should set up well for the passing games of these offenses. The last time Miami was in this quadrant was Week 1 against the Chargers, and the passing offense went nuclear. This week, the Rams are also a sneaky-strong play as slight dogs against the Colts.
• The bottom left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs and not expected to score much. We want to approach rostering players from these teams with caution. The visualization in this quadrant is actually tough to look at given just how many teams on this slate are 2.5-to-3.5-point underdogs with an implied team total between 18.8 and 21.5. Chicago, Atlanta, Houston, Tennessee, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay each fall into this group as slight dogs in what are projected to be low-scoring games.