Is This Real? Week 13

Photo: Ron Chenoy, USA Today Sports

Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should anchor your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.

Is this real?

Is Quentin Johnston a Bust?

Quentin Johnston has struggled mightily as a rookie. On the season, Johnston has 21 receptions, 190 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. This is well below the remaining first-round wide receivers.

Johnston has been clearly worse than the rest of the first-round rookie wide receivers and ranks 13th in receptions among rookies. Johnston started slow, running routes on 28% in the first three weeks of the season, while Mike Williams was in the lineup. After Williams was injured in week 3, Johnston entered the lineup as the starter in weeks 4 through 12. Johnston has jumped up to 70% route participation since week 4, but he has struggled to produce.

Johnston's production is a major concern about his trajectory. For fantasy production, the most important skill is earning targets, a place where Johnston has struggled mightily. On the season, Johnston has been targeted on only 14% of his routes, which ranks 70th out of 91 receivers with at least 200 routes.

The nature of the targets is also a dangerous sign. Of the wide receivers with at least 200 routes, Johnston rates first in percentage of targets that are contested (41.7%). This leaves Johnston with a target per open route rate (TPORR) of 8.5%, which ranks 84th out of 91, a very poor sign of future production.

Even when Johnston is targeted, Johnston has struggled. On the season, Johnston has an aDOT of 11.8 but has struggled to capitalize on the yardage. Johnston is 39% under his air yards realized based on his aDOT, the worst in the league.

Verdict: Overall, Johnston's production has been a major disappointment and well behind the success track of first-round picks. He has time to rebound, but he needs to make a sharp change of direction in his season and career.