5 Overvalued Dynasty WRs

Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports

A great source for evaluating players is comparing a player’s dynasty valuation with the redraft market. To do this, you compared their dynasty valuation with their best ball ADP. Players with higher dynasty valuations than best ball ADPs are overvalued in the near term, while players with higher best ball ADPs than dynasty values are undervalued. This is particularly true later in dynasty drafts when longevity is less of a concern. This article focuses on wide receivers who are overvalued in Dynasty.

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The receivers below are poor targets for win-now Dynasty teams.

Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans

Best Ball WR39 – Dynasty WR29

A first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Treylon Burks finds himself in an opportunity to step into the WR1 role in the Tennessee offense in his second season. Burks was targeted 4.8 times per game on 23.1 routes per game in his rookie season and only averaged 8.6 points per game. His rookie season production was good for WR61 in points per game. Tennessee is one of the more run-centric teams in the league and is going through a rebuild that could be tough on Burks’s development. Ryan Tannehill is the incumbent starter, but the team drafted Will Levis in the second round of the NFL Draft and could look to audition him during the season. This all leaves Burks as a potential WR1 but in a questionable offense. Burks is WR39 in best ball ADP, well below his WR29 dynasty valuation. If he produces the range of his best ball ADP, he is almost certain to fall in dynasty valuation in 2023.

Michael Pittman Jr, Indianapolis Colts

Best Ball WR28 – Dynasty WR18

Michael Pittman is ranked as the WR18 in dynasty valuation, which is well ahead of his dynasty valuation of WR28. Pittman was targeted 8.7 times per game in 2022 when the Colts dropped back to pass 40.3 times per game, which ranked ninth in the league. The selection of Anthony Richardson with the fourth pick in the draft could create a major volume problem for Pittman. In fact, our consensus projections only project Indianapolis Colts to throw 29.6 attempts per game, behind only Chicago (26.5) and Atlanta (27.7) in our projections. Pittman is a non-elite wide receiver in a tough volume situation, which is a formula for a drop in dynasty valuation after this year.

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

Best Ball WR25 – Dynasty WR16

Drake London suffers a similar problem as Michael Pittman, as his team is projected as having the second-fewest attempts in the league, ahead of only Chicago. London has three critical differences from Pittman. First, London was a first-round draft pick ahead of Pittman, who was selected in the second round. Second, London is entering the second year of his career compared to Pittman, who is entering his fourth season. Third, London was an elite performer as a rookie, something Pittman has never been. He was targeted on 27% of his routes, which is a 100th-percentile career performance, and 2.07 yards per route run, a 95th-percentile career performance, both well above the career performances of Pittman. London could produce at or near his best ball ADP and maintain his dynasty valuation and has a major jump in valuation if the team throws more than they are projected to in 2023.