Will Chris Olave Take Over in New Orleans?

Route running is the bedrock of a successful wide receiver's career in the NFL, and it's no different for Chris Olave. Drafted 11th overall in 2022, Olave's impressive rookie season proved that his success was no fluke. In 2023, he's going to finish as a top-12 receiver, and it's easy to see why.

My colleagues at Footballguys forecast a similar outcome.

Table: Wide Receiver Projections (PPR)

Despite the inconsistency in quarterback play, Olave has managed to carve out a niche for himself as the go-to receiver for New Orleans. He displayed his versatility by taking on the roles of "X," "Z," and slot receiver, handling 119 targets and gaining the trust of his team. He racked up solid fantasy production, hinting at a promising future:

• 200.2 fantasy points (PPR)
• WR24 ranking
• WR26 on a per-game basis

With quarterback Derek Carr joining New Orleans, Olave's synergy with the new signal-caller is set to thrive.

Selling Routes

Olave is quickly becoming one of the most meticulous receivers in the NFL with the way he attacks corners and leverage. The Panthers show a Cover 3 shell with a deep safety and both outside corners opening slightly to the middle of the field. Olave knows he can sell the inside route, especially with the corner in position to cover the inside. He releases with an inside stem, closes the space on the corner, and forces him to open his shoulder nearly vertically in preparation to run with Olave down the field. An inside jab step leads to Olave breaking off the corner and sending him up the field, giving Jameis Winston time to find Olave wide open at the sideline.

chris olave ranking 6th in yards per route run as a rookie with uneven quarterback play bodes very well for him this season with another year of experience and (hopefully) more consistent quarterback play pic.twitter.com/7nFsL9PsWf

— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) July 19, 2023

Top Rookie WR Seasons by YPRR
+ min. 200 routes run, since 2010

1 Odell Beckham Jr, 2014 (2.75)
2 A.J. Brown, 2019 (2.67)
3 Justin Jefferson, 2020 (2.66)
4 Ja'Marr Chase, 2021 (2.51)
5 CHRIS OLAVE, 2022 (2.42)
6 Tyreek Hill, 2016 (2.28)
7 CHRISTIAN WATSON, 2022 (2.26)

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) July 22, 2023

Chris Olave's attention to detail in his routes sets him apart as one of the most precise receivers. His ability to read defenders allows him to excel at all levels of the field. As a rookie, he ranked sixth in Yards Per Route Run (YPRR), putting him in the company of some of the best rookie receivers in recent history.

The Unexpected Twist

Though not known for deep speed during his college days, Olave's sub 4.4 forty at the combine showcased his capability to win downfield. Last season, he had an impressive Average Depth of Target (ADoT) of 14.9 yards, with nearly 40% of the Saints' air yards directed toward him. Additionally, Olave's versatility was evident as he frequently moved around the field, showcasing his talent both outside and in the slot. Against San Francisco, he played the majority of the game from the slot but, on the season, played outside 66% of the time. Being able to come down in the slot and do this is an added bonus for the offense.

Where can he improve?

Olave can get better are generating yards after the catch (YAC). While his lateral agility and quickness have not yet translated to significant YAC gains, his understanding of space and coverage presents opportunities for growth.

Understanding space, coverage, and angles can translate directly to YAC opportunities. Think of how Travis Kelce catches the football moving in one direction and pivots in the opposite direction and into space. These two examples show growth and opportunity for Olave in that same vein. Against the Rams, Olave runs the “Dagger” concept with a deep “Over” route and has to slow down because of the placement of the football. That should have changed his direction after the catch and popped him out right into a ton of space. Instead, he kept his original path and was tackled right after. Then, we see an “In” route where Olave stutter’s at the top of the route before breaking inside where the throw is outside. Taking in the information of space around him, man coverage on him, and only deep middle safety help, he pivots outside on the catch and is free and clear for the touchdown. That touchdown was in the final game of the season, so there’s some growth from Olave, showing that he’s seeing more of the field than where he’s running his route. He’s a detailed player, and that added wrinkle can help his all-around game immensely.

Contested catches have a level of difficulty not every receiver can consistently demonstrate. Hand strength, timing, leverage, concentration, and the will to win the ball are required to come out on top in these situations. His release and work at the top of the route are spot on; the nuance to lean into the corner before breaking off to the inside is noticeable, but the key here is the throw. It’s underthrown, through no real fault of Andy Dalton, who gets folded in half! Olave has to work back to the corner and is unable to bring the ball down while the corner gets a hand on it. Underthrows from the quarterbacks in New Orleans last season happened often, and Olave made some great grabs, but consistency will be important going forward.

One of the Best

I'd say having a good YPRR vs Man and Zone coverage is pretty important pic.twitter.com/wfuXaEzXZA

— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) March 24, 2023

Beating man and zone is essential to become not only a fantasy-relevant receiver for years but becoming a top receiver in the league and a team's go-to player. Olave demonstrated all the tools, techniques, and traits to be a dominant force in the NFL. He had the best YPRR against man coverage in the NFL as a rookie! Continuing to learn the evolving coverages defenses show will take time, but he’s got the mental capacity to soak all that in and keep ascending.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, whether it's by manipulating a defensive back with intentional fakes and speed variations or adjusting his route on the go to make a spectacular catch, Olave's game has all the makings of a fantasy powerhouse. He's a formidable PPR player and a deep threat, with numerous strategies to outsmart defenses. Despite only scoring four touchdowns in the previous season, that's set to change in 2023. Therefore, Olave should be on your list of wide receivers to target late in the second round of drafts.