OVERVIEW
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lower-rostered player.
GAME THEORY
The Miami Dolphins head to New England to take on the Patriots as 2.5-point favorites, which feels a touch low. The total is set at 46.5. The small spread paired with the value for New England will make it easier to be unique while stacking Miami, who are the most likely to blow the doors off this game total. The Dolphins have a condensed running back rotation, while the Patriot’s backfield is yet to be sorted out.
INJURY ROUND-UP
DeVante Parker – Knee – Questionable
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
DOLPHINS OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Tua Tagovailoa $11,200 – Captain or Flex
Tagovailoa silenced the critics in Week 1 while throwing for 466 yards and connecting with Hill on multiple deep balls. Contrary to last season, the Patriots showed the ability to succeed in the passing game in Week 1. A similar output from Mac Jones would bode well for this game hitting the over and allowing Tagovailoa to pass at a similar rate to last week.
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