The Gut Check No.603: Howell, Fields, Cook, and Collins

Photo: Thomas Shea, USA Today Sports

Hot Names . . . Hot Games?

Sam Howell, James Cook, and Nico Collins are all delivering top-10 fantasy value at their respective positions during the first two weeks of the year. They're hot names who could help your team during the first half of the season, depending on how you wield your knowledge of their games.

Justin Fields is perhaps the hottest name in football, but he has displayed a "not" game.

Let's open up the film notebook and share some key plays that give fantasy GMs an understanding of how they should value these options in leagues.

Howell: A Promising Rookie Phase

Howell, like Desmond Ridder, is not a rookie, but he doesn't have enough starts to say he's exited the rookie phase of his development. The rookie phase of quarterbacks is their first 12-15 games as starters. Technically, Jordan Love is still in his rookie phase despite accumulating three years in the league.

Opposing NFL defenses don't begin tweaking their game plans with specific ways to test first-year starters beyond the confines of its schemes until scouts have accumulated notes on the initial 4-6 weeks of games. Even then, defensive coaches aren't throwing out the playbook and implementing entirely new ideas based on notes made about a handful of interesting plays that might indicate a weakness or strength. Over the course of the next 6-12 weeks, defensive coordinators make small tweaks that, if successful, their cohorts build upon until the league begins to develop an unofficial book on the quarterback.

This book indicates what the quarterback does well, where he may struggle, and what has worked against him. Some teams have the scheme and personnel to test specific flaws of that quarterback that others cannot.

This is why we often see young quarterbacks look promising in the box score during the first half of their rookie phase of starts and, in the second half, begin to struggle.

With that vital qualifier stated, here are four plays from Sam Howell's past two weeks of performances that impressed me enough to believe he's worth holding or acquiring in fantasy leagues this year:

For those of you who just need the quick answers:

• Howell is standing tough in the pocket and demonstrating he can throw around pressure with downfield accuracy with hits imminent.
• In two games, Howell has improved his recognition of open windows in the vertical game against favorable leverage and displayed a logically aggressive mentality with good placement.
• Although the Commanders are giving Howell concepts that flood one side of the field where there is one more receiver than a defender in the area, Howell is illustrating the capacity to read the width of the field when making progression reads.
• Howell isn't an elite runner, but he can create and he has displayed a knack for unscripted plays in the red zone.
• He has avoided playing Hero Ball -- skipping easy answers for the remote possibility of bigger plays, not throwing the ball away when he should, and trying to do too much when just delegating and distributing the ball is more than enough.

Washington has done a good job of scheming for Howell. They're often spreading the field so Howell can see the defense clearly.

They're also using three receivers to one side and flooding defensive zones with two defenders. This gives Howell the benefit of the routes passively manipulating the defense while Howell can stare down that side of the field.

They're also throwing in a lot of screens and RPOs to establish a rhythm and not force Howell to perform progression reads on every drop.

Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, and Cole Turner are a solid group of skill talents who are explosive enough for the team to use 3- and 4-Verts concepts, which is when three or four receivers all run go routes and either the tight end or the running back settles in the middle of the field as the receivers run off the coverage.

I would expect opposing defenses to test Howell with different blitz and zone drops as the season unfolds. For those units that have the personnel, expect tight man-to-man coverage to test Howell's leverage reading to its limits.

Advice: I would consider Howell a worthwhile addition to a fantasy roster so you can use him as your second QB who might be worth starting when matchups are favorable against the likes of the Bears, Falcons, and Giants. If interceptions aren't point-killers in your league, he could also be compelling as a garbage-time option if the Bills, Eagles, Cowboys, and Seahawks offenses build strong leads.

If you have two good quarterbacks and need a non-quarterback for your starting lineup due to injury, adding Howell and trading one of your good passers could be the best way to get the most from Howell.

Justin Fields: The Marriage Could Be Over

As I was sharing on a podcast with the Dynasty Degens last night that will be out on Friday morning, the Bears and Justin Fields are like a marriage where one spouse had a major issue that they needed to address while the other spouse tried to cope with the issue and remain patient, but now that the first spouse has finally gotten a handle on the problem, the other spouse has lost the love and the trust can't be rebuilt.

The Bears' front office has made questionable hiring decisions and, for at least two years, failed to outfit Fields with surrounding talent that could maximize his development trajectory. Scheme and playcalling have remained underlying issues during Fields' brief career in Chicago, and that's a big deal when considering that Fields was not a skilled processor of coverages at the college level and needed a strong plan to develop his game, ala Josh Allen.

Fields is smart enough to be a good NFL quarterback.