Underdog Pick 'Em Week 8

Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports

Underdog's Fantasy Pick 'Em is a fun way to test our predictive abilities against the market. The two keys to success are selecting the best players to target and leveraging correlations to improve our odds. You play Pick 'Em simply by choosing Higher or Lower on at least two player props. If you make the right selection, here's the payout structure:

• Two picks = 3X
• Three picks = 6X
• Four picks = 10X
• Five picks = 20X

In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.

Week 7 Review

Overall Picks (8-4 on the week, 44-33-1 on the season)
Overall Units (+7, +6 on the season)

• The 10X Correlation Play with four Higher plays on the Tampa Bay and Atlanta passing games hit comfortably. On the Buccaneers' side, Baker Mayfield (221.5) threw for 275 yards. His top target, Mike Evans (56.5), had 82 receiving yards. On the Falcons' side, Desmond Ridder (209.5) threw for 250 yards. His top target, Drake London (3.5 receptions), had six catches.
• 75% of our four Higher plays on the Chargers-Chiefs came home comfortably. On the Chiefs side, Patrick Mahomes II (278.5) easily topped his passing yardage total with 424. His top target, Travis Kelce (6.5 receptions), also flew over with 12 catches. On the other side, Joshua Palmer (49.5) crushed his receiving yardage prop with 133 yards. Unfortunately, we came up one short, with Keenan Allen (77.5) only managing 55 yards on nine targets.
• The attempt to predict the game script in Denver was unsuccessful. We thought the Packers would control the game on the ground with Aaron Jones (higher than 51.5 rushing yards) leading the way. Instead, he carried it just eight times for 35 yards, and AJ Dillon was the lead back in Jones' return. We were right that Jordan Love would attempt fewer than 32.5 passes but missed on both Lower props on the Denver side.

Lessons learned: The stated goal last week was to hit just one of the three correlated same-game Pick 'Ems with a 10X payout. We were able to do so and came very close on hitting a second. The strategy is worth going back to for a second week in a row.

Week 7 Picks

The correlated same-game passing props have been successful of late. Last week, we hit one of two (and came very close to hitting both). We only need to pinpoint the right games and player combinations at least 10% of the time to achieve long-term positive value. We are revisiting this approach with all four of our recommended Pick 'Ems this week.

Eagles-Commanders

Theory of the Play:

• The Eagles' target distribution is extremely condensed. Outside of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Eagles receivers have combined for 98 yards on the season.
• The Commanders have given up the second-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers (193.8 per game).
• The Eagles defense has also been torched by opposing wide receivers, allowing 178.4 yards per game, and Terry McLaurin has been the go-to target since returning to full health.
• We get a strong correlation between Hurts' yardage and that of his top two targets and the opposing team's top wide receiver.

Jalen Hurts

Higher than 249.5 Passing Yards

• Hurts has thrown for at least 277 yards in five straight games.
• The last time the Eagles played in Washington, Hurts threw for 340 yards, and he threw for 319 yards at home against this same defense in Week 4.
• The Commanders are allowing 263.6 passing yards per game, sixth-most in the NFL.

DeVonta Smith

Higher than 48.5 Receiving Yards

• Smith's second-best game of the 2023 season was against the Commanders in Week 4 when he caught 7-of-9 targets for 78 yards.
• Smith has at least 50 receiving yards in 16 of his last 26 games (61.5%).

A.J. Brown

Higher than 89.5 Receiving Yards

• Brown is the hottest wide receiver in the NFL. He has five straight games with at least 127 receiving yards.
• He caught 9-of-13 targets for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Week 4 matchup against the Commanders.

A.J. Brown: 50% target share vs. man coverage (1st)

Commanders: second-most man coverage

Dear god.

(remember the D.J. Moore game)

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 26, 2023

Terry McLaurin

Higher than 56.5 Receiving Yards

• McLaurin had a toe injury during training camp that threatened his early-season availability. He was able to play through it, but the injury likely contributed to his slow start.
• Over his last four games, he has averaged 76.5 receiving yards per game on 8.8 targets.
• He has 80-plus yards in three of his last four games, including 86 yards (on eight catches) against the Eagles in Week 4.

Terry McLaurin in his first three games of 2023:

- 17% target share
- 26% air yardage share
- 24% first-read target share (@FantasyPtsData)
- 10.5 PPR ave

McLaurin over the past month:

- 24% target share
- 34% air yardage share
- 30% first-read target share
- 15.2 PPR

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 25, 2023