It’s understandable to want to wait to draft your team until late in the preseason when you have no risk of an injury torpedoing one of your early picks. Having more complete and accurate information can better inform you and leave you feeling better about your draft. The problem is that it also informs all of your leaguemates and corrects ADP from earlier drafts that both present tremendous values and allow you to take advantage of players getting overdrafted before camp brings everyone to their senses. There are a lot of reasons to get in now to draft your Footballguys championship team. One is our 10% discount through June 30 (you can still choose when you draft), but that’s far from the only one. Here are five opportunities you can take advantage of in early drafts:
Note: See all Footballguys Championship early ADP here.
The Rookie Running Back Discount
2020 and 2021 were down years for rookie running backs. 2022 was better, but the early draft market hasn’t reflected what should be renewed optimism in the ability of rookie backs to make an impact. Consider these options:
- Tyjae Spears, TEN (ADP: 148) - He’s the most dynamic player in space in an offense that sorely needs playmakers. If the rumors about his knee shortening his career are true, that’s even more reason for the Titans to use him early and often.
- Tank Bigsby, JAX (123) - He could have a similar role to James Robinson’s before he was dealt to the Jets, which would make him a value pick in 11th round. One beat writer has already speculated that he could get more work than Travis Etienne in any given game, depending on who is the hot hand.
- Devon Achane, MIA (119) - Dalvin Cook could sign in Miami and knock Achane’s ADP down a bit, but if Cook signs elsewhere, his ADP is sure to rise. Either way, Achane will be involved as a receiver and be a threat to score every time he touches the ball in an offense that is great at making big plays.
- Zach Charbonnet, SEA (115) - Charbonnet is closer to a 1B to Kenneth Walker’s 1A than he is to being a backup, and he’ll be the passing down back. The Seahawks offense should also be improved this year. He should be going 2-3 rounds higher at a minimum, and he’s a must pick if you don’t believe in Walker’s durability.
- Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (46) - Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara have already shown us that a part-time running back can be a full-time fantasy starter if he is involved in the passing game. Early reports have Gibbs lining up all over the formation, and he was Alabama’s leading receiver at any position last year. If he can create big plays on Detroit’s fast track, he’ll look like a steal even with only 12-15 touches a game. D’Andre Swift was going in the second round last year with the same anticipated role.
The San Francisco Quarterback Situation
The 49ers have one of the best offenses in the league, yet their quarterbacks are barely getting drafted in a six-point pass touchdown scoring system. Both Brock Purdy and Trey Lance are last-round picks. If Purdy is cleared to begin camp, his ADP will jump multiple rounds. If Purdy isn’t cleared to begin camp, Lance’s ADP will jump even more because he offers rushing upside that puts a Top 6-8 fantasy ranking in his range of outcomes. Lance could also create enough buzz behind a healthy Purdy to make the leash short, increasing Lance’s perceived speculative value. One way or another, one of these quarterbacks is going to go up in price.
Uncertain Wide Receiver Depth Charts
This list isn’t limited to these two teams, but the Giants and Panthers stand out right away as wide receiver groups that will almost certainly present at least one great value when the dust settles. Carolina has Adam Thielen (117), D.J. Chark (155), Jonathan Mingo (159), and maybe the most promising of all, Terrace Marshall Jr (191). Once news starts to come out of camp about who No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young is favoring, one of these names will truly separate from the pack, and others will fade. The Giants offer Isaiah Hodgins (166), Parris Campbell (188), and Darius Slayton (219) in a passing offense that should be improved and give us at least one relevant wideout despite the addition of Darren Waller. If Waller struggles to stay healthy like he did last year, more than one Giants wideout could hit.
Free Agent Uncertainty
DeAndre Hopkins and Dalvin Cook are bigger than the usual names we see available in free agency during the summer. Their teams exhausted trade possibilities before finally conceding that they would have to release the former franchise cornerstones. The fantasy community continues to be bullish about the 2023 prospects for both, even though they have found softer-than-expected markets for their services. DeAndre Hopkins’ ADP is 36. Would you take Hopkins at 36 if he is the No. 1 receiver for the Patriots or Titans? Those are the only two teams to have him in for a visit, and he didn’t like either contract offer enough to take it. Dalvin Cook doesn’t seem close to a deal with anyone, and not every team connected to him has a vacancy atop their running back depth chart. Somehow, Cook’s ADP is at 64, 11 spots earlier than the player who will replace him, Alexander Mattison. When reality sets in for Cook and Hopkins, their ADPs will almost certainly drop. Reality should have already set in and sent Mattison up the board.
Injury Uncertainty
Early draft ADPs give you a chance to capitalize on market inefficiencies related to injury uncertainty. There has been some positive news about Javonte Williams (85) against a background of news that recommended caution with respect to his early season value, but Samaje Perine (104) is actually going more than a round later. One of these players is going to be a value on a team that has recommitted to the run this offseason. Breece Hall (30) was on a pace to be a first-round pick in fantasy drafts this year before tearing his ACL. If he is a full go in training camp, he won’t be available in the third round any longer. If he is slow to get up to speed or has a setback, fifth-round pick Israel Abanikanda (193) will skyrocket up the board. Those aren’t the only two offseason injury situations with uncertainty to exploit, but they are the two most prominent.
Taking a stance in early drafts gives you a chance to build a team that is impossible to put together in August. If more of the “sharps” are persuaded by data that seems to favor drafting later, then that will nullify that advantage and swing the desired back to early drafting. Get ahead of the curve and put your beliefs into action before the information edge is leveled by the training camp firehose.
