There's a word in fantasy football—one that strikes fear into even the most grizzled and battle-tested of managers. A word more terrifying than a tax audit, a colonoscopy, and having to watch 36 straight hours of Downtown Abbey put together. A term that gives fantasy drafters palpitations and cold sweats because it can sink a season in the blink of an eye.
That word is "bust."
Use too many early picks on players who fail to meet expectations in the campaign to come, and that's that—you can play the waiver wire like a madman, but too many busts and the season will be wrecked.
Now, the quarterback position may well be the least likely to torpedo a fantasy season—it's easily the deepest position in fantasy, with options available outside the top 15 per Footballguys ADP that have the potential to be solid weekly starters.
But that doesn't mean there aren't landmines at the position. In fact, there is a quartet of quarterbacks being selected inside the top 10 who could be hard-pressed to live up to their ADP in 2024.
Beginning with the first signal-caller off draft boards on average.
QB Bust: Josh Allen, Buffalo (ADP: QB1)
There are some major changes in the Buffalo offense this year—the team's top two receivers from a year ago (Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs) are gone, replaced by veteran Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman. While appearing on the Green Light with Chris Long podcast, Bills quarterback Josh Allen said he's confident Coleman will play a big role in Buffalo as a rookie, going so far as to compare Coleman to a pair of former Pro Bowlers in Michael Thomas and Dez Bryant.
“I think he's the best body control that I've seen in terms of running to the right, jumping off his right and getting left, and then running left side, jumping off his left, and getting right,” Allen said. “I think that's his basketball background. But again, he's 6-foot-4, I think he plays faster than what his 40 [yard dash] time said. I know everybody knocks him for that, but he's a gamer, too, and he loves the game of football. I'm excited to throw to him.”
Allen was fantasy's top quarterback a year ago, but there are a number of reasons why a repeat could be unlikely—including all the changes to the passing game weapons around him. Allen's 15 rushing touchdowns were more than he had in 2021 and 2022 combined, and his 29 touchdown passes were his fewest since 2019. An argument can be made that taking any quarterback in the middle of Round 3 isn't a great idea—taking one with this many red flags is just asking for trouble.
QB Bust: C.J. Stroud, Houston (ADP: QB5)
There isn't a quarterback in the league riding a bigger wave of hype into the 2024 campaign than Stroud. Partly it's the Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign that Stroud put up in 2023. Partly it's a loaded offense that added a pair of proven veteran weapons in wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon. And partly, it's talk from Houston that Stroud is ready to take his game to the next level this season.
"Everything in pre-snap from the meeting rooms, the command, calling the plays and everything is just so further along now," Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans said, via ESPN's DJ Bien-Aime. "It's just been a seamless process of him understanding the entire picture, not just being focused on himself. You see a lot of him getting guys lined up, putting guys in the right spot. (Offensive coordinator) Bobby Slowik has done a really great job of having him see the bigger picture."
Stroud's arm talent is undeniable. And in Diggs, Mixon, wideouts Nico Collins and Tank Dell and tight end Dalton Schultz, Stroud's weapons are as good as any in the NFL. But Stroud isn't much of a factor on the ground—just 167 rushing yards a year ago. To return top-five fantasy value, Stroud is going to need to surpass 4,500 passing yards and post a sizable increase over last year's 23 touchdown passes.