Once upon a time, in the olden days when dinosaurs roamed the earth, and you had to get up to change the channel on your television set, running backs were the unquestioned kings of fantasy football. The first round was all about the position—nine or 10 of the top-12 picks would be backs.
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That's no longer the case—in today's pass-wacky NFL and fantasy landscape, where teams have three weekly starters and point-per-reception scoring is more rule than exception, wide receivers have supplanted running backs as fantasy's most valuable position. But that doesn't mean that running backs are the new (shudder) kickers—it's still vitally important for fantasy managers to build a strong backfield.
Of course, running back also has the highest bust rate of any position in fantasy—largely because all that banging into defenders tends to result in (go figure) injuries. Pick the wrong running backs and your chances of fantasy glory will be gobbled up by an Indominus Rex.
They didn't exist except in Jurassic World, but whatever.
With that in mind, here's a look at two backs being drafted in the top 12, two being drafted in the top 24 and one being drafted in the top 30 who have the potential to ruin your day just like that little dinosaur that spits on Newman from Seinfeld in the first Jurassic Park flick.
Now, do me a favor—get up and change it to Channel 4. The Price is Right is coming on.
RB Bust: Kyren Williams, LA Rams (ADP: RB7)
Williams was a revelation for fantasy managers last year, a late-round pick or waiver add who averaged five yards a carry, tallied 1,350 total yards, scored 15 touchdowns and was the second-ranked running back in PPR points per game. The Rams added Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 draft, but Williams told reporters that if anything that will keep him fresh as the Rams navigate the 2024 campaign.
"Obviously it's not going to be good for me [if I take every carry]," Williams said. "I've got to be able to look out for myself because it's the longevity of it. Because, yeah, I want to be great this season, but I want to be great for multiple seasons. So, it's just being able to be smarter and just having people like Blake [Corum] and Ronnie [Rivers] being able to support me in that run game."
Corum's arrival in La-La Land may be a good thing for the Rams, but it's a genuine concern for fantasy managers—especially given that Williams missed five games due to injury last season. Corum didn't play at all in the preseason, but after over 500 carries the last two years at Michigan, he's a known commodity—one that could take a sizable chunk of Williams' workload. If that's the case (or Williams gets hurt again), it's going to be hard to return value on his ADP of the middle of Round 2.
RB Bust: De'Von Achane, Miami (ADP: RB8)
There may not be a more polarizing running back in fantasy football in 2024 than Achane. Supporters see an explosive back who set an NFL record for yards per carry (7.8) last season and could go ballistic with an increased workload. Then there are folks like Footballguys' own Jason Wood, who see a player in a ridiculously crowded backfield who will be hard-pressed to repeat last year's incredible efficiency.
“Achane is one of the most explosive players in the league, and we know he can put up RB1 weeks because he did it as a rookie,” Wood said. “But we, as a staff, have him ranked well below his ADP and see him as an RB2 this year, for good reason. His durability, the depth at the position, including a new rookie (Jaylen Wright) who's a three-down talent, and the absurdity of how much Achane's efficiency was an all-time historical outlier are all reasons to ratchet back expectations.”
Efficiency isn't the only cause for concern with Achane—he's an undersized back (5-foot-9, 188 pounds) who missed six games last year and isn't the lead back for Miami. Fantasy managers might want him to be, but that's still Mostert's gig. I've been railing that Achane is overvalued all offseason long—it's too late to turn back now.
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