It's the close calls that so often determine the difference between victory in defeat. No one has to tell fantasy managers to start Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley or Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase. But it's those few points between similarly ranked fantasy options that can mean the difference between a win and a loss.
And in Week 14, that could mean an awful lot.
Sure, there are some teams who are locked into the playoffs regardless of what happens this week. For some other sad sacks, the regular season ends after this week win or lose.
If it makes you feel any better, I'm in that boat in more than a few places. 2024 has been a year.
But for quite a few folks, the playoffs have essentially already started. Find a path to victory this week, and they will play on in Week 15. Lose, and the season ends in an even more depressing fashion than tomato cans who have been out of it for weeks.
For those "win and in" managers, there's no margin for error. They need to hit on as many lineup spots as possible—especially the tougher decisions. The Close Calls.
That rather felt like a segue.
Every week here at Footballguys, Close Calls will make a case for a pair of closely-ranked fantasy options—and then make the call on which player will be more productive.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in the Footballguys Weekly Rankings.
Enough intro-ing. Let's get to it.
Close Call: Justin Herbert, LA Chargers (QB17) vs. Jameis Winston, Cleveland (QB18)
The Case for Herbert: To make a case for Herbert, we first have to engage in a little selective amnesia—last week's clunker by the Chargers offense in Atlanta never happened. Los Angeles wasn't held to 187 yards of offense, and Herbert didn't throw for just 147 yards without a touchdown pass. It never happened.
We have seen Herbert post far better numbers this season—over a month-long stretch from Week 9 to Week 12, Herbert was sixth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. With running back J.K. Dobbins on the shelf, the Chargers' ground game has evaporated. If the Bolts have a chance against Kansas City, it lies with Herbert throwing the ball.
The Case for Winston: Um, did you watch last week's loss to the Denver Broncos? In that game, Winston set a new franchise record for passing yards in a game by a Browns quarterback, torching the Denver Broncos defense for 497 yards and four scores. In many scoring systems, Winston was Week 13's highest-scoring quarterback.
To be fair, Winston also threw three interceptions against Denver—two of which were returned for touchdowns. Winston's numbers two weeks ago against the Steelers were more modest—219 passing yards with an interception. But that game happened in a driving snowstorm, and the weather this week in Pittsburgh is supposed to be relatively pleasant for this time of year.
The Verdict: Winston. Herbert has a much better matchup—the Steelers are actually dead last in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks this year. But the Broncos rank outside the top 25 in that regard, and Winston just roasted them for almost five bills. Counting on Jameis Winston for a playoff spot—welcome to 2024.
Close Call: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina (RB22) vs. Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City (RB26)
The Case for Hubbard: Not much has gone right for the Panthers this season, but the play of Hubbard has been a bright spot—so much so that he earned a contract extension during the season. Hubbard has averaged a robust 4.9 yards per carry, and with 81 more yards on the ground, he will record the first 1,000-yard season of his NFL career.
Philadelphia's top-ranked defense hasn't been easy to run on—the Eagles are seventh in the league in run defense, allowing less than 105 yards on the ground per game. But if the Panthers have any hope of pulling off a massive upset in Philadelphia, it lies with using Hubbard and the rushing attack to keep the Eagles offense off the field.
The Case for Pacheco: After a lengthy stint on injured reserve with a broken leg, Pacheco returned to action last week, carrying the ball seven times for 44 yards in limited action. Perhaps most importantly, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid told reporters that the third-year running back came out of the game none the worse for wear.
"He ended up with 20-something plays," Reid said. "Wanted to get him in the mix, caught up with the speed of the game. We were thinking around 20 plays; didn't necessarily care about the carries or not, but it worked out that way though. He came out healthy, feeling good, no setbacks."
The Verdict: Pacheco. As good as Hubbard has been this season, his 12 carries last year were his fewest since Week 2. He also lost a critical fumble in an overtime loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. These are two backs heading in opposite directions, and while Pacheco's matchup isn't especially good, it's better than Hubbard's.
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