DFS First Look: Week 17

Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we'll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 17 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. 

Matchup Overview

I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 17.

Please Note: Commanders-Falcons is on the FanDuel main slate but not the DraftKings main slate.

Upper Left: High-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them intriguing targets for potential shootouts. In Week 17, the Packers are the lone team in this quadrant. While both Green Bay and Minnesota have excellent defenses, the offenses on both sides have been hot. This matchup should be a high-scoring, closely contested battle between two of the NFL's best teams. Jordan Love has had a quiet fantasy season, but the potential shootout nature of this game could unlock his upside.

Upper Right: High-Scoring Favorites
These teams are favorites with above-average implied team totals, making them priority targets for both cash games and GPPs. A few teams stand out from the pack in this key quadrant for Week 17:

• The Bills started slowly against the Patriots last week, and the offense underperformed after back-to-back strong performances. It wouldn't be surprising to see this unit bounce back in a big way against the Jets.
• The Buccaneers have quietly been one of the NFL's best offenses. Bucky Irving and Mike Evans had big games the last time they faced the Panthers.

Bottom Right: Low-Scoring Favorites
Favorites in this quadrant have below-average implied totals, making them less appealing overall. However, running backs remain viable due to likely positive game scripts, while passing game options carry increased risk. Keep an eye on the health of the Saints' running backs, as their availability could shape the slate.

Bottom Left: Low-Scoring Underdogs
Teams in this quadrant are underdogs with below-average implied team totals, offering the least appeal across the slate. Players from these teams should only be rostered if you have high confidence in their production, as the overall game environment is unlikely to support consistent fantasy success.

Week 17 Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages are valuable data points. In this section, we'll highlight teams expected to score more points than their current season average. This is a simple yet effective way to identify teams and players projected to perform better than in previous weeks.

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 17 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• Jonathan Taylor was the fantasy star of Week 16 and has the potential to shine again in Week 17 with a prime matchup against the Giants. The Colts lead the slate with a 14.4% Week 17 scoring boost.

• The Dolphins have the second-highest Week 17 scoring boost, which bodes well for the red-hot De'Von Achane. In half-PPR scoring, Achane has averaged 19.5 fantasy PPG when Tua Tagovailoa is active—second only to Saquon Barkley.

• The Tennessee Titans have been involved in back-to-back shootouts, which could spell good news for the Jaguars offense and breakout rookie star Brian Thomas Jr.

Week 17 Worst Matchups

In the table below, we compare each team's implied total points ("Total") to their season-to-date average points per game ("PPG") and calculate the expected scoring boost for the current week ("Week 17 Boost"). For the teams below, that scoring boost will be negative. Here are the teams projected to score worse than their season averages:

• Josh Jacobs has been on a scoring streak, but Week 17 presents a challenging matchup against the Vikings defense. Minnesota allows the third-fewest points per game above expectation (-4.7) to opposing running backs, making this a tough spot for Jacobs despite likely seeing a full workload.

• The Cowboys offense has been surprisingly efficient with Cooper Rush under center, but Week 17 will be a tough test against the league's best defense.