NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Scripting & Roster Construction
All good things must come to an end. After two weeks of Thursday Night Football (TNF) featuring playoff-relevant matchups, this week’s game offers a less compelling showdown. The 8-2 Steelers will make the short trip across the Pennsylvania-Ohio border to face the 2-8 Browns in Cleveland. Unless you’re a fan of low-scoring games, there isn’t much to get excited about here. Oddsmakers are predicting a narrow road victory for the Steelers, with a projected score of 20-17.
When building your roster, there are a few key considerations:
- The Steelers are only 3.5-point favorites against a team with as many wins as Pittsburgh has losses—ask yourself why that might be.
- This is an AFC North matchup, meaning these teams are familiar with one another and games are often unpredictable.
- Jameis Winston, now the Browns’ starting quarterback, has thrown for 300+ yards in two of his three starts since taking over in Week 8.
Taking these points into account, there’s a strong argument for rostering at least three Browns players. Public sentiment may lean toward a Steelers blowout, but the savvy play in Showdown contests is to hedge against that assumption. If the game turns into a back-and-forth affair instead of a lopsided Steelers victory, you’ll be positioned to capitalize by having a contrarian lineup stacked with Cleveland players.
Injury Roundup
The Steelers will be without two defensive starters on Thursday night. Cornerback Cory Trice Jr.. was placed on injured reserve this week due to a hamstring injury, and linebacker Alex Highsmith will miss the game with an ankle injury sustained a few weeks ago against the Commanders. While these absences may concern the Steelers' coaching staff, they are unlikely to have significant fantasy implications.
Cleveland will also be missing a pair of starters for this matchup. Tight end Geoff Swaim remains in concussion protocol, and offensive lineman Jedrick Wills will be inactive due to a knee injury. Similar to the Steelers' injuries, these absences appear to be inconsequential for lineup decisions in Showdown contests.