Garrett Wilson: Is He Worth a First-Round Pick?

Jason Wood gives a detailed look at Garrett Wilson's fantasy prospects for the 2024 season.

Jason Wood's Garrett Wilson: Is He Worth a First-Round Pick? Jason Wood Published 07/28/2024

Garrett Wilson is one of this year's hottest targets, with an ADP (WR8, 12th Overall) that solidly puts him in first-round consideration in most drafts. The excitement is understandable, as he's been a good-not-great fantasy asset in his first two seasons despite abysmal quarterbacking. Now, he should be on the receiving end of Aaron Rodgers' pinpoint passes. 


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In Aaron Rodgers, We Trust

One of the biggest storylines of the 2023 preseason was Aaron Rodgers' arrival in New York after a Hall of Fame career in Green Bay. Putting the mercurial MVP in the Big Apple, with hopes of returning the Jets to national prominence after being an also-ran to the dynastic Patriots for two decades, was a story everyone could sink their teeth into. HBO chose the Jets for their annual Hard Knocks series, and we got a firsthand look at Rodgers' preparation and the palpable excitement he and Wilson had to work together. 

Unfortunately, Rodgers tore his Achilles at the start of the first game, ending his year before it began. And that led to a disappointing Jets season:

  • 7-10 Record (3rd place, AFC East)
  • 268 Points (29th in the NFL)
  • 2,919 Passing Yards (30th)
  • 11 Passing Touchdowns (32nd)
  • 32 Passing First Downs (32nd)
  • 4.4 Net Yards per Attempt (32nd)

Zach Wilson (11 starts), Trevor Siemian (3 starts), and Tim Boyle (2 starts) left much to be desired. 

The great news is that Rodgers' rehabilitation has gone well, and he should be fully ready for training camp, the preseason, and, most importantly, the start of the 2024 regular season. 

Aaron Rodgers' No. 1 Receivers (2008-2022)

PlayerYearTgtsRecsYdsTDsFPTsWRRank%Tgts%Recs%Yds%TDs
Greg Jennings2008140801,2919263.1726.1%23.5%32.0%32.1%
Donald Driver2009112701,0616212.11920.7%20.0%23.9%20.0%
Greg Jennings2010123761,26512274.5525.9%24.4%32.3%42.9%
Jordy Nelson201195681,26315284.3418.9%19.8%27.2%33.3%
James Jones2012986478414226.41717.8%17.3%18.3%35.9%
Jordy Nelson2013126851,3148264.41343.4%44.0%51.8%47.1%
Jordy Nelson2014151981,51913327.9329.0%28.7%34.7%34.2%
James Jones2015129798296197.92822.6%22.8%21.7%19.4%
Jordy Nelson2016152971,25714306.7224.9%24.2%28.4%35.0%
Davante Adams20171187488510222.51349.6%48.1%52.8%62.5%
Davante Adams20181671111,38613327.6428.0%29.8%31.2%52.0%
Davante Adams2019129839975212.72322.7%23.5%24.9%19.2%
Davante Adams20201471151,37418360.4127.9%30.9%32.0%37.5%
Davante Adams20211671231,55311344.3231.5%33.6%37.7%29.7%
Allen Lazard202295607886174.83417.5%17.1%21.3%23.1%
 Average130861,17111266.6825.6%25.8%29.9%33.8%

As you can see, it's generally great to be Aaron Rodgers' top target—his No. 1 has been a top-10 fantasy receiver in eight of 15 seasons and has finished as a top-20 option in all but three years. In terms of workload distribution, the top option averaged:

  • 25.6% of Team Targets
  • 25.8% of Team Receptions
  • 29.9% of Team Receiving Yards
  • 33.8% of Team Receiving Touchdowns
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