Is This Real? Week 8

Is This Real is a weekly article focused on whether player performance is real and sustainable or should be expected to change going forward.  Through the use of stats and analytics, the article will help decipher difficult situations around the league.  

The Chargers Offense

Coming into the season, the prevailing thought was the Chargers’ offense would be a run-heavy unit.  This was certainly true through the first four weeks of the season, as the team threw the ball 10% under the expected rate for their game situations. 

After the team’s week 5 bye, the team is 2% over the expected pass rate. 

This marks a major shift for a Chargers team that is not well suited to be a high-volume passing attack. 

The change was not apparent in Denver's blowout win in week 6, which Denver closed to a one-score game in garbage time, but it showed up in a major way in week 7.

On Monday Night Football, Herbert had a season-high in completions (27), attempts (39), and receiving yards (349) and did so with his best yards per attempt of the season (8.9). 

The beneficiary of the increase was Will Dissly.  In the past two weeks, Dissly has played the top two route participation games of the season at 55% and 75%, accounting for 18% and 29% respectively.  This has come at the expense of Hayden Hurst getting injured in week 6 and missing week 7. 

Quentin Johnson missed week 7, allowing Simi Fehoko to jump to 95% route participation in week 7, which tied Ladd McConkey for the team-high in week 7.  Johnston’s and Hurst’s return could complicate Fehoko and Dissly’s roles. 

Notably, this could decrease J.K. Dobbins' workload.  While his production was strong in week 6, it was in a blowout game script.

Verdict: If the volume increase is real, Herbert could be a better fantasy producer, with an opportunity for McConkey and Johnston to outperform expectations.  While Hurst is out, Dissly should be a TE2 with TE1 ranges of outcomes.