Motor City Bargain
Over the last few seasons, a shift has occurred in fantasy football. With the rise of truly elite quarterback options, fantasy managers are reaching earlier and earlier in their drafts to secure a starting quarterback. Last season, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes II II were all taken by the end of the second round, on average. While having a set-it-and-forget-it quarterback is excellent, there could be more value for those willing to wait on the position. Jared Goff, for example, was a top-5 fantasy option last season, and the Lions' schedule suggests he could repeat his success in 2024.
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Home in a Dome
Jared Goff plays better indoors. This narrative has followed Goff for the last few seasons, and in 2024, it could mean big things for fantasy managers. Here are his splits over the previous two seasons, with dome and retractable roof statistics combined:
| 2022-2023 | Games | Attempts | Comps | COMP% | Yards | Yards/Game | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indoor Gms | 23 | 796 | 539 | 67.7% | 6291 | 274 | 49 | 14 |
| Outdoor Gms | 11 | 396 | 250 | 63.1% | 2722 | 247 | 10 | 5 |
When looking at only his indoor games, Goff has a 17-game pace of 4650 yards and 36 touchdowns. Those statistics would have led the league last season, and "Dome Goff" would have been the best quarterback in fantasy. Perhaps more astounding is how much better he is indoors versus outdoors. Along with a 4-percent increase in completions and 27 more yards per game, Goff throws more than double the touchdowns per game indoors.
In 2024, the Lions play 14 of their 17 games inside a dome or retractable roof. Outside of a Week 5 bye, Week 9 at Green Bay, and Weeks 16 and 17 at Chicago and San Francisco, Goff will be in a climate-controlled, fantasy-friendly environment for nearly every game. This schedule bodes well for Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions.
A Rising Tide Lifts All Ships
If you combine Goff's averages for indoor and outdoor games, he could finish the 2024 season with 4,572 yards and 33 TDs. Interestingly, that is almost his exact yardage total from 2023, with three more touchdowns. While some expect regression in 2024, we could easily see improvement. These numbers from Goff should again mean great things for the Detroit Lions this season.
Last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown was the third-best receiver in fantasy, putting up 1,515 yards and ten touchdowns. Sam LaPorta also scored ten times and was fantasy's best tight end. Jahmyr Gibbs ranked in the top 10 among running backs in receptions. With 70 vacated targets, Gibbs and third-year receiver Jameson Williams should see more involvement this season. Add in a projected three more touchdowns from Goff, and St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs all have top-5 upside yet again.
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