Don't Call It A Comeback; He's Been Here For Years
Kyler Murray has an average draft position of 76th overall as the 10th quarterback off the board. While it's great to see the young franchise signal caller back in fantasy managers' good graces, it's still a few spots later than he should be drafted. The fascinating part of Murray's narrative is that he's finally ready to break out, or more accurately, to make his comeback. Yet, the data tells a different story.
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Kyler Murray's Fantasy Ranking, Per Game
- 2019 -- QB15 (17.7 fantasy points)
- 2020 -- QB5 (24.2)
- 2021 -- QB5 (21.5)
- 2022 -- QB12 (17.9)
- 2023 -- QB11 (18.0)
After a Heisman-winning season at the University of Oklahoma, Murray was the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft. The Arizona Cardinals paired him with wunderkind coach Kliff Kingsbury, who was supposed to bring the aggressive spread attack dominating the college landscape with him to the NFL, a system quite similar to the one Murray ran under Lincoln Riley at OU. Although he didn't quite hit fantasy QB1 value as a rookie, he was named the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year and cemented himself as a high-upside starting quarterback.
| Year | Gms | Comps | Atts | PaYds | PaTD | INT | Rush | RuYds | RuTD | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 16 | 349 | 542 | 3,722 | 20 | 12 | 93 | 544 | 4 | 9 |
| 2020 | 16 | 375 | 558 | 3,971 | 26 | 12 | 133 | 819 | 11 | 2 |
| 2021 | 14 | 333 | 481 | 3,787 | 24 | 10 | 88 | 423 | 5 | 11 |
| 2022 | 11 | 259 | 390 | 2,368 | 14 | 7 | 67 | 418 | 3 | 21 |
| 2023 | 8 | 176 | 268 | 1,799 | 10 | 5 | 44 | 244 | 3 | 27 |
The 2020 season vaulted Murray into fantasy stardom, and he delivered back-to-back top-5 seasons (on a per-game basis) as a dual-threat option. The team rewarded him with a 5-year, $230 million extension before the 2022 season. Things were going reasonably well in 2022 before Murray tore his ACL, ending his season and putting the nail in GM Steve Kein's and Coach Kingsbury's coffins.
Enter new GM Monti Ossenfort, head coach Jonathan Gannon, and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. The new regime understood they would play at least a portion of the 2023 season without Murray as he rehabbed his knee. Beyond the knee rehab, there was speculation about Murray's interest in remaining with the Cardinals and uncertainty about whether the new power structure wanted to make a clean break.
The Cardinals started the season 1-9 without Murray, removing any question about whether the team could or should move on from him. But would Murray want to return and play for a team with no postseason hopes? We now know that, in fact, he did return and played well enough to erase any doubts about who would be under center in 2024.
The key takeaways:
- Murray was a top-5 fantasy quarterback before tearing his ACL.
- Upon his return last year, he delivered top-12 (QB11) value despite learning a new system without a preseason and dealing with one of the worst receiving corps in the NFC.
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