Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.
The 2024 fantasy football season is entering the second half, and for every player making fantasy managers happy there are two making them pull their hair out. The first tight end drafted in the majority of leagues has been all but invisible. The position thought to be the most bust-proof (quarterback) is littered with them.
It's the latter where this week's Polarizing Players begins.
Disappointing QBs
Halfway into the 2024 season, Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys, Patrick Mahomes II of the Kansas City Chiefs, and Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts all rank outside the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks.
Do any have a shot at a top-five fantasy finish at the position? Who winds up with the most fantasy points?
Harris: I don't think any of them have a shot at finishing in the top five this season. It's possible, but the emergence of Jayden Daniels and the surprising rise of others (including Baker Mayfield up to this point) crowd the field at the top.
But more importantly, it would take some serious improvement for Prescott to hit the 20.2 fantasy point-per-game average that resulted in his QB3 finish last year. That said, if he and CeeDee Lamb hit stride the way they did last season, a rise from his current QB20 spot inside the top 10 is possible. Especially working in an offense that hasn't found a way to run the football, expecting Prescott's numbers to normalize to something closer to last year's output seems reasonable. I just don't think that will get him in the top five.
I plumbed the depths on Mahomes in last week's Polarizing Players. Still, if you want to argue that DeAndre Hopkins materially changes his trajectory, I'll remind you that Rashee Rice and JuJu Smith-Schuster were plenty productive and Mahomes still sits at QB22 in the season, scoring 13.7 points per game. From my perspective, the Chiefs' approach has changed. They win by playing defense and running the ball. Super-productive Mahomes is still there, but the team is no longer constructed to dial up the 30-50 TD passes that fueled previous fantasy success.
As the engineer of the Richardson hype train this year, I should probably recuse myself from any serious discussion about his potential -- although Footballguy Matt Waldman makes every argument I would in this week's Gutcheck column, which features the QB. I'm still hoping for a positive outcome for Richardson when all is said and done, but selling him as top-five anything is me failing to acknowledge a big miss this year.
Davenport: I'd love to be able to say that I disagree with Harris. But it's more likely to me that all three of these quarterbacks fail to crack the top 10 for the season than it is for one to sneak his way into the top five. There are problems with each—significant ones.
The problem for Prescott is a lack of any kind of offensive balance in Dallas. No team in the NFL is worse at running the ball than the Cowboys, and the offense just isn't functioning with any consistency. The notion of Dallas being the most pass-heavy team in the NFL may wind up more curse than blessing for Prescott in 2024.
Mahomes doesn't have to throw for 5,000 yards this year. And even if he could, I don't think the Chiefs want him to. There will be spike games, but Kansas City's offensive identity this season has been fairly conservative. They are the only team in the league without a loss, so I don't expect them to fix what isn't broken. The arrival of Hopkins isn't a sea change in that philosophy. They needed a body at wide receiver.
As for Richardson? Well, at the risk of sounding harsh, he's terrible throwing the football right now. He also isn't racking up the gaudy rushing totals that some expected. The Colts are too invested in Richardson (and too smart) to Bryce Young him, but Indy has a better chance of winning football games with Joe Flacco under center. There isn't any breakout coming. Moderate improvement would be a Godsend.