Contract Terms
Sam Darnold will sign a one-year deal worth $10 million with the Minnesota Vikings.
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Fantasy Football Impact
After losing Kirk Cousins, the immediate question for all fantasy football fans was: Who will throw the ball to Justin Jefferson? We may not have a long-term answer to that question, but it looks like Sam Darnold in the short term.
Darnold's career has played out in the headlines. The Jets drafted him third overall in 2018, two picks after Baker Mayfield and four picks before Josh Allen. In New York, he had a penchant for turning the ball over and never finished better than QB27 in fantasy. Believe it or not, that was the high point of his career.
He left town seeing ghosts and ended up in Carolina for two years before, oddly enough, being replaced by Baker Mayfield. That led to him accepting a backup job in San Francisco in 2023. With uncertainty that Brock Purdy would be ready for the start of the season, there were even rumors Darnold would start Week 1. That didn't happen, but most reports on Darnold were positive, and now he gets a chance at a starting spot once again.
In Minnesota, the table is certainly set. They have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at wide receiver and, when healthy, T.J. Hockenson at tight end. It's fair to say this is better than anything he had in New York or Carolina, especially after losing Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore to trades. Based on his limited reps in San Francisco, it's hard to tell from the outside whether Darnold is a better player. He is a career 59% passer and completed 60.9% on 46 attempts with the 49ers.
The system in Minnesota is QB-friendly. Their head coach and offensive coordinator are both from the Sean McVay tree, and the quarterback coach is a former Darnold teammate, Josh McCown. They will throw the ball a lot and have plenty of firepower. Over the last two seasons, the Vikings averaged 652 passing attempts, 3rd-most in the NFL. Darnold has never thrown more than 441 passes in a season.
We saw great games from Joshua Dobbs when Cousins missed time last year. It is not impossible for Darnold to go to Minnesota and have the best season of his career. He's still only 26; this could be a new beginning. It's also very possible that the Vikings see him as a stop-gap for a younger quarterback. Dave Kluge said of the signing, "Lots of smoke about Minnesota being interested in J.J. McCarthy. Darnold is a perfect bridge QB for that potential scenario."
The Fantasy Football Fallout
This move does not cause much worry in San Francisco. With a healthy Brock Purdy, they rarely used Darnold. After their playoff debacle of 2022, you can be sure they'll add a backup or three before we hit Week 1.
In Minnesota, the fallout might depend on who is still around. Immediately after Kirk Cousins signed in Atlanta, rumors about a Justin Jefferson trade began. While some were quick to shoot those rumors down, Footballguys' Jason Wood says, "I'm not sure why trading away Justin Jefferson should be out of the question. League history pretty clearly shows that having an elite, crazy-expensive WR is not exactly a blueprint for Super Bowl contention. They're likely starting Sam Darnold this year at quarterback. Let Jefferson get his bag elsewhere. That window closed."
Assuming everyone stays in place, Darnold will still be a step back from Cousins. This dip in talent shouldn't affect Justin Jefferson so much. He's elite and appears quarterback-proof. However, secondary options like Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson will lose fantasy value. Hockenson is still dealing with a late-season knee injury and is a candidate to start the season on the PUP list. Where you draft these guys might come down to your appetite for risk. You can keep an eye on how Footballguys ranks them in our 2024 Draft Rankings.
Stock Watch
Risers
- Sam Darnold, if he keeps the job
Fallers
- Jordan Addison
- T.J. Hockenson
- Justin Jefferson - his value is probably flat, but it's still Sam Darnold
Overview
After a year in San Francisco, Sam Darnold gets another chance to start in the NFL. Minnesota gave him a one-year deal worth up to $10 million to prove himself with one of the more talented receiving corps in the league.
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