The Gut Check No.634: Buy-Sell-Hold Steelers Offense

The Steelers benched Justin Fields for Russell Wilson. More accurately, the Steelers awarded Russell Wilson the starting job this summer, Wilson got hurt, and NFL coaches don't like to have a quarterback lose his job due to injury. 

What matters most to us is how this impacts the Steelers' fantasy options. Who should we be buying, selling, and holding in this offense? 

Hold/Buy: Russell Wilson

If you're desperate for a starting quarterback, Wilson should be a cheap addition to your roster. Most are skeptical about his production potential after Wilson's disastrous stint in Denver, the Steelers' porous offensive line, the lack of established aerial weapons in Pittsburgh, and Arthur Smith's reputation with personnel usage. It means you should get Wilson at a significant discount. 

For most of you, Wilson has no value beyond holding him if he's already on your roster in re-draft or dynasty leagues. You're hoping he either plays his way into your lineups or elevates his value so you can trade him. 

The football community has been down on Wilson for a while. I wrote about the hate for Wilson on and off the field two years ago. Although Wilson didn't deliver in Denver, there were a lot more reasons that were out of his control than characterized. 

As for the vitriol from the media, I thought it was petty -- especially from Kyle Brandt (and you can read about it in that link above). However, we've since learned that his teammates felt that Wilson held them at arm's length--even in Seattle. When Marshawn Lynch is critical of Wilson, you know there's fire with that smoke. 

That said, teammates loved Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger, and Deshaun Watson before the world saw their off-field behaviors come to light. Wilson may lose the popularity referendum, but from what I've seen, he still has enough left to compete in the NFL. 

Is he better than Fields? As a runner? Never. Fantasy GMs with Fields are disappointed in the loss of ceiling at QB. 

As a passer? Absolutely. Wilson processes information faster and more accurately pre-snap and post-snap. He's also capable of winning from the pocket. 

The big question - -and what's holding me back from recommending Wilson as a universal "buy" -- is the Steelers offensive line. They may not give Wilson the time to perform significantly better than Fields. I'm open to it, but only as a "hold" or cheap "buy" if desperate for a backup/emergency starter. 

Hold: Justin Fields

You can't sell Fields. You can only hope that he gets another shot. Given the Steelers' pass protection, Wilson could falter physically or conceptually, and Pittsburgh would have no choice but to return to Fields. 

You've probably seen a bunch of stats about Fields in the past 24 hours. Seth Walder at ESPN noted that Fields' 8.3 percent sack rate this year, despite a bottom-feeding offensive line, is a career-best mark for the young quarterback. 

It's also not hard to find that Fields' completion percentage dropped below 60 percent during the past two weeks. So did his average yardage per attempt. Fields has also fumbled six times this year--four times in the past three games. 

There's also the bottom line: The Steelers have lost two of the past three games--each by three points. 

What does the film say? After watching Fields' past three games, it's easy to see why the Steelers are benching him. I posted a thread Wednesday afternoon with several videos from Fields's past three starts. 

Here's the summary of the insights: 

• Fields may have a career-low sack rate, but he generates sacks because he's a slow processor of pre-snap and post-snap information. 
• He doesn't read the field with patience and accuracy when he has plenty of time. 
• Fields has game-management lapses in critical areas of the field and game-script scenarios. 
• Fields doesn't see the early and most efficient opportunities for big plays and stresses his offense. 
• Fields sabotages the potential of plays with predetermined decisions that limit their potential.

Let's look at some examples...

This sack is on Justin Fields. He knows where he's going pre-snap. He sees the LB's head turned to the S after the snap. He doesn't need to hold the LB nearly as long as he does. He's late to throw to Pickens and then can't make the throw. pic.twitter.com/pN6XmvXm8E

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2024

Justin Fields on third down in FG range down by 14 takes a sack for a 22 yard loss in mid-third quarter.

Pre-snap show of blitz from edges. He knows the routes and who should be coming unblocked. No adjustment to this. Should be a quick throw to left--two options there. Nope. pic.twitter.com/7DuTzscPIb

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2024

Justin Fields makes a terrific throw to Pickens off-structure.

Unfortunately, he could have hit Pickens in structure and gives the WR a better shot for a bigger gain and be more efficient. Less risk. pic.twitter.com/R0NZ2YCzWr

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2024

Fields doesn't put 2+2 together well downfield. If you determine the S has leverage against the seam on the right side, it means you will have the open seam up the left.

Fields misses this and the check-down opportunity. pic.twitter.com/AH4vBkcReO

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2024

There are four more videos you can find in this thread. 

Fields can keep the Steelers competitive. He's already proven it. The Steelers don't believe Fields is ready to elevate this offense and they believe Wilson has the conceptual skills as a passer to do so. We're about to find out.