Three Up, Three Down: Week 3

Week 1 is about overreactions. Week 2 is about balancing out. However, two weeks is enough time to start noticing trends, so we should adjust our rest-of-season rankings.

Three Up

QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay

Raise your hand if you expected Baker Mayfield to be the top-scoring fantasy quarterback through Week 2! Now put your hand down, liars. While Mayfield probably won't average 24.7 fantasy points per game over the course of the entire season, it's hard to ignore the production he's had since signing with the Buccaneers last year. Since the start of last season, only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott have scored more fantasy points than Mayfield. He is fourth in the league in EPA per dropback. While there have undoubtedly been other quarterback surprises to start this season (Derek Carr and Sam Darnold, most notably), Mayfield's is best translating to fantasy production. Mike Evans is still playing at an elite level. Chris Godwin is seeing a resurgence with his usage in the slot. And Mayfield, still just 29 years old, is averaging 27.5 rushing yards per game. That's well above his season-long career best of 10.3 yards per game. While some regression might hit in the rushing department, Mayfield has shown that he's more than capable of leading a high-powered passing attack. He moves up from being a high-end QB2 to being a locked-in top-10 option until he gives us a reason not to rank him there.

RB Ty Chandler, Minnesota

Last year, Ty Chandler took some time to carve out a role for himself in a committee with Alexander Mattison. He didn't see double-digit touches in a game until Week 10. This year, however, he's much more involved early in the year, a promising sign for his season-long outlook. Through two weeks, he's averaging 10.5 touches per game. Aaron Jones has amassed 15 touches per game. They're both averaging precisely 5.9 yards per touch. They both rank inside the top 10 in rushing yards over expectation per attempt, and each boasts a rushing EPA above +1. Drafters this offseason had a clear preference towards Jones. But Chandler is getting a similar workload and putting up equally impressive efficiency metrics. He's starting to provide some weekly flex appeal and has elite contingent upside in a better-than-expected Vikings offense.