How to approach a two-game slate:
Two-game slates are, without question, the worst slate of DFS that is out there. The reason is that it is incredibly difficult to create variance with your competition in such a small slate. Even in something like a Showdown slate, you have the captains so that you can find ways to be unique and reduce the amount of duplicative lineups. Ultimately, there are people who are going to play just about every slate, especially when there are prize pools as large as $2.75M on DraftKings and $800k on FanDuel.
The way to play these two game slates is to factor in a narrative regarding what is going to happen this week. As much as we love our optimizer tools at Footballguys, you should consider throwing them out the window on a two-game slate. The reason for this is relatively simple. An optimized lineup is going to give you a lot of the same value plays across the board, which is going to significantly increase the roster percentage of certain players.
By creating a narrative for each game as a starting point, this allows you to back into how you think those points are going to be scored.
Potential Questions To Ask Yourself:
- How is Los Angeles’ passing game going to perform this week against Seattle, given that they threw for 457 yards and 3 touchdowns in their last performance against Seattle, while only throwing for 130 yards in their first meeting against the Seahawks?
- Will New England be able to block Denver? Drake Maye has been sacked five times in each of the last two games, and Denver led the NFL with 67 sacks on the season. If they’re able to block for Maye, both Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins are intriguing value plays this week.
- How will Jarrett Stidham perform? We haven’t seen the 29-year-old have a start since 2023, and the reality is that there is a non-zero chance he’s completely fine. In his two starts in 2023, he averaged 7.5 yards per attempt compared to Bo Nix’s 6.6 on the season. With the Broncos unlikely to find any success running the ball this week with R.J. Harvey struggling, they likely are going to need to rely on Stidham to throw the ball and could have some success this week.
- Just how hurt is Sam Darnold? This is a critical one as the Seahawks took him off the injury report on Friday, which should mean he’s good to go, but we saw him throw just 17 times last week in the 41-6 victory against San Francisco. While Darnold is a difficult play this week, his pass catchers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and A.J. Barner, will be critical decision points this week.
This is a slate where you should likely play four wide receivers at least on DraftKings instead of trying to take three running backs. The running backs on this slate just are not overly exciting outside of Ken Walker III, and while the wide receiver position is not particularly deep, it will provide some much-needed savings on DraftKings that allow you to spend up elsewhere. On FanDuel, you can still play three running backs just because you don’t get much of a savings by going down to the low-end of wide receivers.
Key Injuries- Conference Championships:
- Bo Nix will miss the rest of the season with an ankle injury suffered on the final drive of the Buffalo game. Jarrett Stidham will make his first start since 2023. While it’s not ideal for Denver, there is a non-zero chance that this opens up an opportunity, as many are simply thinking that Stidham is incapable of playing the position. He’s a value quarterback this week, who could go under the radar.
- J.K. Dobbins was ruled out for this game, which was unfortunate news for Denver, as he would have provided a significant upgrade at the running back position for the Broncos. R.J. Harvey will get the start, although he saw only six carries last week, as the rookie has struggled immensely over the last several games. Harvey is a better play on DraftKings with the full PPR instead of FanDuel, as he has caught four or more passes in three of his last four games.
- Mack Hollins is questionable for New England, but does appear that he will play which is big news for the Patriots as it provides a much needed receiver with Stefon Diggs struggling in recent weeks.
- Zach Charbonnet is out with a torn ACL suffered in last week’s game. Even in a 41-6 victory, the Seahawks almost entirely depended on Ken Walker III to carry the workload, with converted wide receiver Velus Jones Jr seeing a few carries late in the game. This seems like a scenario where Seattle is not going to keep running the committee approach and instead rely heavily on Walker this week.
Position Recommendations:
This section will break down each position group and some players at the high-end and low-end that you should target this week.
Quarterback:
Personally, this is a spend-up or spend-down situation for me this week. Neither Drake Maye nor Sam Darnold has looked impressive enough to have confidence that there will be a GPP-winning upside in this game. For Darnold, it just comes down to health, and they’re going to try to win the game running the ball if possible. For Maye, expect that he will be one of the most popular quarterbacks this week as the optimization models love him. However, during the playoffs, he has not looked as crisp as he did during the regular season. He completed just 58% of his passes compared to 72% during the regular season, but a big issue has been the lack of protection that New England has provided him. During the regular season, he was sacked just 2.7 times per game, while in the playoffs, through the first two weeks, he’s been sacked five times in each game.