The flip side of succeeding with undervalued players is failing with overvalued players. They can clog your roster and never seem to match your expectations. Avoiding them is another important key to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to identify players available in the top half of your draft who should underperform their draft position.
RELATED: See 3 Underrated Tight Ends here
Four overrated tight ends quickly gathered interest. See what our staff has to say about each player.
Overrated TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo
Jason Wood: Dalton Kincaid was supposed to be the next young, immediate-impact tight end to take the NFL by storm. However, his rookie season ultimately proved to be good, rather than great. He finished as TE13. That early success led much of the industry to project a 2024 breakout. Instead, Kincaid regressed, finishing as TE21 on a per-game basis.
Even more concerning, his role declined as the season wore on. He ranked as TE33 in the second half of the year. The reality is that the Bills have shown they don't trust Kincaid as a difference-maker. He's just another guy, someone who will make the occasional play when a defense blows a coverage, not someone you can count on week to week.
Ben Cummins: Dalton Kincaid missed four games and played through injuries at times last season. That is important context, but there is no way to fully excuse his massive letdown in 2024.
After Stefon Diggs was traded away, Kincaid was expected to take a significant leap in his second season without any true alpha wide receiver on the Bills. Instead, he finished third on the team in receiving yards (448) and had fewer than rookie Keon Coleman despite Coleman also missing four contests.
Dawson Knox played a significant role in the offense last year and is projected to do so once again in 2025, as he's a better blocker than Kincaid. Knox played on 50+% of the offensive snaps in 13 of 16 regular-season games and out-snapped Kincaid in all three playoff games.
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady returns for another season, and his offense spread the ball around last year. Six players saw between 25 and 50 targets in addition to Kincaid, Coleman, and Khalil Shakir's volume. Kincaid isn't good enough to register worthwhile production, essentially operating as a big receiver, and the offense he's in doesn't do him any favors since Brady and Josh Allen don't funnel targets.
Colton Dodgson: Bills pass catchers will give me some pause heading into next season. Not because this isn't a great offense with talented options. It's because of the dispersion of their targets. Khalil Shakir led the team in targets per game with 6.7. That ranked 42nd in the NFL. Further, eight players saw at least two targets per game in Buffalo last season.
For what it's worth, Dalton Kincaid was second with 5.8 targets per game with a target percentage of 29 percent. His 3.4 receptions, though, were 18th. His +0.13 EPA/target was 23rd with a catch rate over expected of -11.6 percent.
This isn't a system under Joe Brady in which one option will see a massive target share, or even an above-average target share. Given how well it worked for them last year, I wouldn't expect much of a departure from the identity.
Maurile Tremblay: Dalton Kincaid remains a fashionable breakout pick, but there are multiple reasons to steer clear in 2025. His second campaign was actually a step back: knee trouble limited him to 13 games, and he finished outside the top 20 at the position despite playing with Josh Allen.
Nothing about Buffalo's offseason suggests a sudden target spike. The Bills kept Dawson Knox because his $14.5 million cap hit makes cutting him impractical, guaranteeing continued two-tight-end rotations and siphoning valuable routes near the goal line.
Meanwhile, GM Brandon Beane flooded the receiver room with Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore, and Curtis Samuel to join Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir, an influx that crowds whatever middle-of-the-field volume Kincaid once feasted upon.
Joe Brady's offense already leaned on heavy personnel to bolster the ground game (both tight ends topped 40 percent snap share last year). That philosophy remains, meaning Kincaid is asked to block as often as he releases into the pattern.
Add in Allen's tendency to call his own number inside the ten, and Kincaid must achieve rare efficiency just to match last season's middling fantasy finish. That upside-dependent profile is one to fade when clearer paths to volume are available.
Overrated TE Tyler Warren, Indianapolis
Jason Wood: Neither Daniel Jones nor Anthony Richardson has shown an ability to produce touchdowns at an acceptable rate as passers, and rookie Tyler Warren will need a healthy dose of scores to come close to matching his ADP.
Even if you believe Warren is on the same level as Sam LaPorta or Brock Bowers (I don't), he's stepping into a dysfunctional passing offense with limited upside. Warren's dynasty stock is red hot, but in redraft formats, he's being overvalued by several rounds.
Matt Waldman: Warren is mislabeled in the draftnik community as a Brock Bowers/George Kittle in the same way every Penn State tight end I have watched in recent years has been. The way the Nittany Lions use the position inflates impressions of their athletic ability.
They are athletic enough to perform in the league as starters, but not like Bowers, Kittle, or Rob Gronkowski as athletes. There was a similar fever dream about Michael Mayer at Notre Dame. Mayer is a good zone player with the skill to win against tight coverage. He's not explosive enough against man coverage.
Warren is not a one-on-one route winner outside the red zone like Kittle, Bowers, Sam LaPorta, or Trey McBride. He's more like Tucker Kraft. Get Warren in the flats and he'll rumble.
That's what it normally takes for a tight end to reach that tier of fantasy production. Warren's best shot at this is a Taysom Hill role in the red zone, but he's not as twitchy as Hill.
Ryan Weisse: Betting on rookie tight ends is always risky, and Tyler Warren is no exception. Yes, Brock Bowers and Sam LaPorta have raised expectations in recent years, but they are outliers. Most rookie tight ends take time to develop, especially in offenses that are not built around the passing game.
That's the situation Warren steps into in Indianapolis. The Colts were one of the most run-heavy teams in football last season, and that identity is unlikely to change with Anthony Richardson Sr.—or Daniel Jones—under center.
Even if Warren were to command every single target that went to Colts' tight ends in 2024, he still would not have cracked the Top 15 at the position. The team threw just 75 passes to tight ends all season, and Warren is likely to spend a fair share of his snaps helping out in the run game rather than running routes.
Rookie tight ends need volume and scoring opportunities to be fantasy-relevant, and it is hard to see either being consistent in this system. There is long-term potential in Warren's profile, but expecting immediate impact is chasing a ceiling that is highly unlikely to materialize in 2025.
Overrated TE T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota
Jason Wood: T.J. Hockenson was TE18 on a per-game basis last year as the Vikings' offense evolved and began spreading the ball around to multiple receivers beyond Justin Jefferson, including Jalen Nailor and Jordan Addison.
Hockenson is a solid player and should be a starter in 12-team leagues, but drafting him at ADP assumes he's a lock to be the Vikings' first or second option in the passing game. More likely, he's part of a multi-player target rotation behind the lone alpha, Jefferson.
Add in the uncertainty of another new starting quarterback in J.J. McCarthy and an offensive line ranked 19th by Matt Bitonti, and Hockenson carries more downside risk than his current draft cost reflects.
Bob Harris: T.J. Hockenson was a fantasy force in 2023, his first season in Minnesota, before tearing his ACL late in the year. He didn't return until mid-2024, and when he did, he wasn't ready to play up to past levels.
In 10 games, he managed 41 catches for 455 yards and no touchdowns. His best effort, a 114-yard game in Chicago, was a rare flash in an otherwise quiet stretch. Now he's got an unproven rookie quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, adding a layer of uncertainty to the situation.
So, what's keeping him in the TE5 range? Upside -- and memory. Hockenson had more PPR points per game than any tight end in the NFC in 2023. A healthy return could reintroduce that version.
But if 2024 is the new normal, fantasy managers could be chasing ghosts. All that being the case, I'll let someone else take the leap. The price isn't outrageous, Hockenson has had more time to recover, McCarthy likes to utilize his tight ends, and it's possible the former Lion could regain past form. Still, I'd rather use that spot on a more certain bet and let someone else be the hero if Hockenson rebounds.
Ryan Weisse: T.J. Hockenson is being drafted like a reliable fantasy starter, but that expectation doesn't match what we saw in 2024. After suffering a major knee injury late in 2023, Hockenson returned last season but wasn't the same player.
He posted the lowest catch rate of his career, failed to score a single touchdown, and averaged his fewest fantasy points per game since his rookie year. Now he enters 2025, another year removed from injury, but also with a new quarterback, rookie J.J. McCarthy, who has yet to take an NFL snap.
Hockenson's current ADP appears to be driven more by name value and his peak production in 2022 and 2023 than by any genuine optimism about his role in this evolving offense. Even if he's healthier this year, the uncertainty surrounding McCarthy's development and the overall offensive efficiency should give drafters pause.
Minnesota has plenty of mouths to feed, and without reliable red zone work or a proven connection with the quarterback, it's tough to project a bounce-back. In a deep tight end pool, Hockenson is being drafted near his ceiling. Given the risk, he's more likely to finish outside the Top 10 than return to elite status.
Overrated TE Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens
Dave Kluge: Week 1 is arguably the best week of the fantasy football season. We victoriously beat our chests for being right and anguish over bad calls. Everyone overreacts.
When Isaiah Likely scored nearly twice as many points as the next closest tight end in Week 1, people lost their minds. Mark Andrews was the TE29 in Week 1, and people quickly proclaimed the changing of the guard. But over the rest of the season, Weeks 2-18, order was restored.
Likely was the TE24. Andrews was the TE5. Still, people hang on to what we saw in that Week 1 primetime game, and it's pushed Likely's value way higher than it should be.
The Ravens switched to a lot of two-tight-end sets last year. But they lean heavily on the run game. Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, and Rashod Bateman all sit atop Likely in the pecking order.
From Week 2 on, Likely was 32nd in targets among tight ends. His usage and production were similar to Noah Gray, Colby Parkinson, and Ja'Tavion Sanders. The ceiling he displayed in Week 1 was rare for a tight end. But looking over his whole career, it seems more like a blip than a trend.
Jeff Blaylock: One of fantasy's best-loved myths is Isaiah Likely being the heir apparent to Mark Andrews. That myth was given more steam by visions of Mark Andrews fumbling after a catch and dropping a two-point conversion in a 27-25 playoff loss to Buffalo.
Between a forgettable first five games of the 2025 season and that memorable playoff game, Andrews was the TE6 and led all tight ends with 11 touchdowns. Unlike Andrews, Likely opened last season spectacularly, torching Kansas City for 111 yards and a touchdown. After that, he was the TE26 for the rest of the season.
Isaiah Likely may well be the best second tight end in the league, but a second tight end he remains. Andrews was Lamar Jackson's preferred option in the red zone. Inside the 20-yard line, Andrews ran more routes, was targeted more often, caught more passes, and averaged double the yards per catch as Likely. Andrews was also utilized more frequently than Likely elsewhere on the field.
Coming into the season, some speculated that Andrews might be traded, but no trade materialized. Likely may be the future as Andrews enters his age-30 season, also a contract year, but Andrews remains the present.
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