NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings Showdown lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections. However, if two options project closely, give the nod to the player with the lowest rostered value.
DraftKings Showdown Game Scripting & Roster Construction
With both defenses struggling, Vegas is prepping for scoring; the 49.5 projected total is tied as the week's highest. Their projected final score, Buffalo 28.5 – 21.0, qualifies as a near-blowout in this divisional battle.
DraftKings' pricing, however, doesn't help us this week. DraftKings knows scoring should be plentiful, and knows that these teams don't feature many proven weekly dominators. There's no Ja'Marr Chase, nor Justin Jefferson, nor anything close here; these teams tend to manufacture their touchdowns. That line of thinking tells us that Bills-heavy (4-2 or 5-1) is the smart play tonight, because:
- They're noticeably better on offense.
- Their quarterback is amazing and stacks better than New England's.
- The Bills boast more ho-hum receivers to scramble the field's rostership. We can play Bills tonight while still being unique!
Injury Roundup
Both teams enter extraordinarily healthy, even for Week Five, with no skill starters in jeopardy. Only a few defensive role players, like Buffalo LB Matt Milano and New England CB Carlton Davis III, are question marks.
Captain Consideration
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Drake Maye (CPT or FLEX)
Maye has quietly posted 21+ points every week since the opener. Most encouragingly, they came in differing game scripts: 26.3 in a, 21.2 in a turnover-plagued mess, and 23.2 in a blowout win that saw Maye throwing while up 35-6. The secret? Maye throws almost exclusively underneath, completing a league-high 74.0%, and his receivers are YAC specialists. It helps that he adds 5.5 DraftKings points per game with his legs.
Tonight, he'll almost surely be asked to throw with volume (35+ attempts in 7 of 14 starts), and very few will Captain the underdog quarterback. If Maye is going to be hyper-efficient AND run for extra production… then he's not your typical underdog quarterback.
Running Back
TreVeyon Henderson (CPT or FLEX)
Rhamondre Stevenson (FLEX)
Antonio Gibson (FLEX)
Stevenson and Henderson continue to cannibalize each other, thanks to each still bearing a fatal flaw. Stevenson is an explosive, consistent runner… who's fumbled 9 times over his last 19 games. Henderson is lightning in a bottle, as both a runner and a receiver… who can't pass-block well enough to draw more than 40% of the snaps.
Henderson's upside, though, is the one to chase. He's working his way into all packages – base, third-down, even goal-line – and he threatens to tilt a game with every snap. His first NFL touch, remember, was a preseason kick-return touchdown. He's far bulkier and more durable than your typical scatback. There's a non-zero chance he emerges from this game the lead back overall.
Gibson continues to siphon off just enough production to be annoying, including a goal-line touchdown last week. But he's lost the pass-game role that once made him mildly intriguing; there's no real ceiling here.