DraftKings Sunday Showdown: Week 17

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be risky. Typically, your edge comes from identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

With both DraftKings and FanDuel now using similar formats — a multiplier slot (Captain/MVP) that costs 1.5× salary and earns 1.5× points — the nuances between sites come down to scoring systems and contest dynamics. DraftKings' full PPR scoring and larger prize pools reward a slightly different decision-making process than FanDuel's half-PPR and softer fields, but the core principles of Showdown roster construction apply across both.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest-rostered player.

DraftKings Showdown Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Here we have a true "Game of the Year" candidate – a fairly unlikely one – that could determine the NFC's top seed. Both teams are high-tempo and high-volume, hence the 51.0 total and the tight SF-3.5 spread. Vegas isn't sure quite what to do with this one, except to project ample scoring.

So, where will it all come from? I say San Francisco, as I'm looking to play contrarian and I'm a little puzzled by a low-ish 3.5 spread. The home 49ers have been the more consistent 11-4 squad, winning games by more than double the Bears' margin (4.8 to 2.2). In fact, they've won five straight, by 19, 11, 18, 13, and 21 points.

Thus, the 49ers side seems just a bit "upstream" tonight. And while their weapons don't exactly jump off the screen, I think their blend of uniqueness and high-scoring upside is the path to take.

Injury Roundup

Caleb Williams and the Bears will lack top WR Rome Odunze for a fourth straight week. It's worth noting, however, that dynamic rookie Luther Burden III has been cleared for a full snap count.

As always, the 49ers have a handful of their own pass-catchers up in the air. Wideout Ricky Pearsall and tight end George Kittle are game-time calls, though Kittle seems less likely to play. A blocking/decoy role wouldn't be out of the question.

Captain Consideration

1. Christian McCaffrey
2. Brock Purdy
3. Caleb Williams
4. Luther Burden III
5. Ricky Pearsall
6. Jauan Jennings
7. DJ Moore
8. Kyle Monangai
9. D'Andre Swift

Chicago Bears

Quarterback

Caleb Williams (CPT or FLEX)

You can set your watch by Williams' passing volume: he's thrown 32-38 passes in 8 of the Bears' last 9 games. Unsurprisingly, the week he didn't was their 31-3 breeze past the Browns. These Bears tend to play tight games, which keeps Williams throwing (and scrambling) enough to produce. Tonight's tight spread and high total suggests he'll throw plenty again. And it may be worth noting: Williams needs 600 yards over the final 2 weeks to give the Bears their first ever 4,000-yard passer.

And yet, we're still waiting for Williams' fantasy breakout. He totaled 63.8 DraftKings over Weeks 9 and 10, but dipped right back down after that. In his other 13 games, he's averaged a respectable 17.1. And yet, I expect the public to favor him over Brock Purdy, which dampens my interest. I'm a little more intrigued by Purdy and certain 49ers stacks.

Running Back

Kyle Monangai (CPT or FLEX)
D'Andre Swift (CPT or FLEX)

Swift sees consistent volume (15+ touches in 12 of 14 games), so we know there's a floor in place. Barring injury, Swift won't outright tank your finish. That said, some of Swift's upside has been shaved off in this timeshare. Despite his reputation as a pass-catcher, he's added a total of just 13.6 DraftKings receiving points over his last six games. Thus, DraftKings' PPR format doesn't give him much edge over Monangai, who could certainly erupt in his own right.

Monangai isn't quite as safe as Swift, as game flow can all but pull him from the game plan. Still, the signs point toward at least similar output between the two going forward:

Playing either (or both?!) plus fading Caleb Williams should create a ton of uniqueness. It's a dice roll on a very specific game plan, but a realistic one. The battered 49ers held Jonathan Taylor down last week, but they've had less success recently against Kyren Williams, Tony Pollard, Quinshon Judkins, and others.

Wide Receiver