NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge comes from identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
With both DraftKings and FanDuel now using similar formats — a multiplier slot (Captain/MVP) that costs 1.5× salary and earns 1.5× points — the nuances between sites come down to scoring systems and contest dynamics. DraftKings' full PPR scoring and larger prize pools reward a slightly different decision-making process than FanDuel's half-PPR and softer fields, but the core principles of Showdown roster construction apply across both.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest-rostered player.
DraftKings Showdown Game Scripting & Roster Construction
Vegas looks at this matchup (Baltimore -3) as essentially a toss-up, with a few token points thrown the home Ravens' way. Both teams have much to play for, but only the Ravens truly have their playoff backs against the wall. It's an unfamiliar position for John Harbaugh's Ravens, so it's hard to know what to expect.
We can project, though, for the home-favorite Ravens to try and control the ball as much as possible. They'll likely focus on what they do best – pound Derrick Henry and use Lamar Jackson to exploit the mismatches – for as long as possible. That will also keep Patriots MVP candidate Drake Maye on the sideline.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have been winning with explosive, game-shifting splash plays. Maye has cooled a bit since midseason, though, and the Baltimore defense has improved by leaps and bounds.
Injury Roundup
Neither team is missing any notable skill players, but the Patriots do have a handful of key defenders up in the air.
Captain Consideration
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Drake Maye (CPT or FLEX)
Maye still looks great, MVP-caliber great even, but there's no question he's swooned a bit since midseason:
| WEEKS 1-8 | Metric | WEEKS 9-15 |
|---|---|---|
| 75.2% | Comp % | 65.6% |
| 9.0 | Yds / Att | 8.4 |
| 6.63% | TD % | 4.37% |
| 1.32% | Int % | 2.19% |
| 22.2 | DK Pt / Gm | 18.7 |
That's not too worrisome in a vacuum, but this has been a relatively weak stretch of defenses. And this week, they'll face a Ravens unit that's improved mightily over that same stretch:
| WEEKS 1-8 | Metric | WEEKS 9-15 |
|---|---|---|
| 68.1% | Comp % Allowed | 56.9% |
| 7.2 | Yds / Att Allowed | 6.3 |
| 5.51% | TD % Allowed | 1.96% |
| 0.78% | Int % Allowed | 2.75% |
| 21.5 | DK Pt / Gm Allowed | 13.4 |
Running Back
TreVeyon Henderson (CPT or FLEX)
Rhamondre Stevenson (FLEX)
It appears that coach Mike Vrabel has let Henderson out of the doghouse. Or, at the very least, he's allowing him to do whatever he wants in there. Henderson has shaken off a rough start to the year and looks like one of the game's most explosive weapons:
| WEEKS 1-7 | Metric | WEEKS 8-15 |
|---|---|---|
| 30.3% | RB Rush % | 62.5% |
| 2.6 | Targ / Gm | 3.3 |
| 36.0 | Scrim / Gm | 104.7 |
| 6.7 | DK Pt / Gm | 19.8 |
It's not wise to expect such wild efficiency all the time, though, and much of your league will be playing (and Captaining) the dynamic Henderson. "Dynamic" means up-and-down, and Henderson is particularly dependent on huge runs. If he's held in check this week, you'll be glad you pumped the brakes. And if you did, you likely rolled the dice on Stevenson seeing strong volume and/or finding the end zone. That's not a bad trade-off, considering that Stevenson draws more usage than a typical backup.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs (FLEX)
Kayshon Boutte (FLEX)
Mack Hollins (FLEX)
Kyle Williams (FLEX)
This situation remains fluid and a bit of a week-to-week mess. Diggs has only cleared 50 yards once since Week 7. At this point, he's likely more valuable to the Patriots than to the fantasy world. When they're up solidly, Diggs doesn't see enough snaps to contribute much to the stat sheet. When they're forced to throw, he's nowhere near a typical No. 1 in terms of volume or explosiveness. Maye prefers to find the right throw and spread the ball situationally.
Hollins is easy to pull for, but he's not very fast or explosive, and the Patriots only gain 8.6 yards per target of his. The Showdown world is better served by poking around Boutte (or even Williams) for a low-played arbitrage. Boutte hasn't seen much action since returning from a hamstring issue in Week 11, but don't be fooled: he's still very much valued in this offense. He's the only speed threat that sees regular snaps. Williams remains an afterthought, with just five catches all year, but they've gone for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns. If he ever works his way into the rotation, even for a week, he'll likely shatter 4x value.
Tight End
Hunter Henry (FLEX)
Henry's role isn't particularly consistent, which is a shame, as he produces well on a per-target basis. Six times he's been thrown to six times or more, and he averaged 16.0 DraftKings points in those games. That said, he'll face an athletic Ravens defense that plays the TE exceptionally well. Baltimore hasn't allowed one to top a mere 26 yards since back in Week 9.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson (CPT or FLEX)
It's hard to project a ceiling for Jackson, who simply does not look healthy or in his right quarterbacking mind at the moment. We've seen plenty of floor, though: he finished with single-digit DraftKings points in each of Weeks 11-13. Jackson isn't running much right now – just – and his passing efficiency has cratered.
Of course, Jackson is the type of fantasy performer who can transcend all that when things go his way. Should we get a low-scoring game, he can easily lead the slate in scoring with just a single scramble or two. In a shootout, of course, there's always the chance he regains his high-scoring form midstream.
We can guess, though, that a chunk of Showdown players have been burned by Jackson in recent weeks, and that his rostership will dip as a result. Anyone with deflating attention but week-winning upside demands we kick the Captain tires. A quarterback like Jackson screams for it.
Running Back
Derrick Henry (CPT or FLEX)
Keaton Mitchell (FLEX)
You know what to expect from Henry. If the Ravens stay out in front of game flow, he'll be the offensive fulcrum and approach 100 yards, and he'll likely at least threaten the end zone. There's no question he's slipped efficiency-wise from his 2024 level, which is to be expected at age 31.
Still, Henry remains the most consistent and predictable part of this offense. Any script that keeps the Ravens involved in this game will practically involve Henry by default. And for all his 10 touchdowns thus far, natural progression suggests he has a week of multiple scores left in his 2025. Amazingly, he's already carried more inside the five-yard line than he did in all of 2024.
Mitchell continues to spell in place of Justice Hill, and he boasts the per-snap and per-carry numbers of a Greek god. Project his 101 career rushes to Henry's volume, and you'd get a final line of 2,308 yards. He's worked his way into the pass game (somewhat), too, which only boosts him as a cheap-ish play.
Note: Some will play Mitchell instead of Henry, but there's real uniqueness to be found in playing them together. In last week's blowout, they combined for 166 yards on 19 rushes. With a touchdown or two – and the Baltimore offense running more than 40 snaps – they could've reached 4x value together and then some. The Ravens average 54 plays per game, for the record, and 10 in the red zone.
Wide Receiver
Zay Flowers (CPT or FLEX)
DeAndre Hopkins (FLEX)
Rashod Bateman (FLEX)
Flowers, the only thing close to a consistent option here, may be bouncing back from a horrendous midseason slump. He's drawn 36% of Lamar Jackson's targets over the past 2 weeks, posting 11 catches, 192 yards, and 1 touchdown. The unquestioned No. 1 wideout, Flowers is always a high-upside Captain arbitrage on Derrick Henry. If Henry doesn't produce, it'll likely be because the Ravens were yanked into some sort of shootout.
As for the rest of the Baltimore wideouts… roll the dice. Final stat lines for all non-Flowers WRs over the past six weeks: 1 for 32, 2 for 23, 2 for 25, 3 for 43, 1 for 11, 2 for 13. Coach John Harbaugh has at least stated a desire to get Hopkins more involved. It's a fine thought, given that Hopkins has gone for 20+ yards on 4 of his 18 catches. It's also easier said than done for the 13th-year wideout. Let your competitors chase the press-conference narratives. There just isn't any notable volume here to spare, and a 30-yard touchdown (and nothing else) would only boost you so much.
Bateman has settled into a deep threat role; think of a poor man's Alec Pierce. He draws a high 12.4 aDOT, but is used mostly to clear out the secondary. He's topped 50 yards just twice all year, and 2 receptions only once.
Tight End
Mark Andrews (FLEX)
Isaiah Likely (FLEX)
Neither TE is nearly as woven into the offense as we're used to seeing. When they play together, Andrews wins the volume battle (18% of targets to Likely's 11%), but Likely is more efficient (1.36 yards per route to Andrews' 1.26). Both make for intriguing plays tonight, but most of that value comes from uniqueness, not so much from scoring upside.
Likely is the hotter of the two right now, and thus the more likely to land on rosters. Andrews has left bad tastes in many mouths lately, but we know what he's capable of in a given week.
Kickers and Defenses
Ravens rookie kicker Tyler Loop has been sensational, hitting 26 of 28 field goal tries, and he's been needed to. The slumping Baltimore offense sits 31st in red-zone touchdown rate, a big reason they've trotted Loop out 28 times already. In fact, he's attempted 2+ in 11 of 14 games thus far. Anyone easing off the Ravens offense would be wise to consider him.
Both defenses have improved over the course of the season, but not in the ways DraftKings cares about. They're both in need of pass-rush reinforcements: the Patriots rank 23rd in sack rate, and the Ravens 31st.
