NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings Showdown lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
DraftKings Showdown Game Scripting & Roster Construction
Atlanta currently sits +2 on the road, which generally means they'd be the favorites on a neutral field. Vegas is absolutely aware of the Falcons' (more specifically, Michael Penix Jr.'s) home vs. road splits, but they still like Atlanta to buck home-field advantage to at least a break-even. That's fair, as the 49ers are simply shredded by injuries on offense and defense. But it also creates lots of value potential for the 49ers left standing. We still have to expect a close game, and the San Francisco side looks to carry real advantages in terms of roster build.
Injury Roundup
The 49ers remain devastated by injuries on both sides of the ball. Brock Purdy (toe) will miss his fifth game, leaving Mac Jones in place under center. Top wideout Brandon Aiyuk remains out (ACL recovery), joined by Ricky Pearsall (knee). George Kittle will return, though, while default No. 1 receiver Jauan Jennings will play through a multitude of injuries.
The Falcons are missing very little. Slot receiver Ray-Ray McCloud III remains shelved due to a personal matter.
Captain Consideration
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Penix is a promising young passer, to be sure, and there's nothing wrong with a young quarterback playing better at home. But Penix's splits are, well… stark:
| Home | Stat | Road |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Won-Loss | 0-3 |
| 30.0 | Team Points/Game | 15.3 |
| 64.2% | Completion % | 54.3% |
| 8.33 | Yards/Att | 5.76 |
| 275.0 | Yards/Game | 176.7 |
| 6:3 | TD:INT | 1:3 |
| 18.33 | DK Points/Gm | 7.11 |
The sample is small, but Penix is clearly much more comfortable indoors in Atlanta. Vegas (and DraftKings) have baked that into their numbers, albeit conservatively. The public may be riding a Falcons high, but I'm very much picking my spots, and this ain't one. I'm downgrading Penix and all his weapons accordingly.