Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Every Decision Matters
Whatever your playoff format or league type, it's safe to say our Week 16 roster and lineup decisions are the most important of the year.
With bye weeks behind us, we'll have a full range of healthy players to choose from. We also have the usual injuries to deal with. Playoff implications can complicate our decisions.
Some Context
In the AFC, the Broncos punched their playoff ticket with a dominant win over the Packers. Thanks to the Bills' comeback over the Patriots, Denver also gained ground in the AFC's race for the top seed. New England still has a shot at the division, but they'll have to wait.
In the AFC South, the Jaguars and Texans won, while the Colts' loss to Seattle pushed them out of the playoff picture for now. Jacksonville leads, but Houston and Indy remain wild-card contenders.
The Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, Jets, and Browns are officially out.
In the NFC, the Rams locked up a playoff spot with a win over the Lions. The Seahawks and 49ers also won, keeping the NFC West race tight. Rams and Seahawks, both 11-3, clash Thursday in Seattle for the top seed.
Chicago beat the Browns, while the Packers fell short in Denver, putting the Bears back on top in the NFC North ahead of Saturday's showdown in Chicago.
The Vikings, Giants, Saints, Commanders, Falcons, and Cardinals are now out . . .
Saturdays Enter the Chat
While NFL playoff implications and injuries are all things we've become more adept at dealing with over time, there are other changes this time of year.
In addition to the usual Thursday night tilt (the Rams at the Seahawks this week), we get a pair of Saturday games (Philadelphia at Washington and Green Bay at Chicago).
With three games played before Sunday, injury decisions are more complicated.
Be sure to move players listed as questionable -- or with generally uncertain outcomes if their injury designations haven't been released) to your flex spot to maximize potential options if your first choice can't go on game day.
The same goes for a player in the late window on Sunday or on Sunday/Monday night.
Conversely, make sure your Thursday and Saturday options are in positional spots so as not to clog your flex spot(s).
Beyond that?
Timing is Everything
What should we be looking for as we're making those final lineup decisions in critical games? Teams with momentum? Players with great matchups? Consistent season-long production?
Ideally, it should be a combination of as many of those attributes as possible. And that's the thing.
We're at the point of the season where timing is everything.
Sometimes, cobbling together the best combination of those factors is the best we can hope for. Let's look at some teams and individual players who appear to be peaking at the right time, and see if we've hit the ceiling -- or if the floor is about to collapse . . .
Duval Rising
Don't look now, but the Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in the AFC.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars destroyed the undermanned Jets 48-20 on Sunday to win their fifth game in a row and hold onto first place in the AFC South. In what might have been the best game of his NFL career, Lawrence was 20-for-32 for 330 yards and five touchdown passes, plus five carries for 51 yards and a rushing touchdown.
He's the first player in NFL history with at least five passing TDs, one rushing TD, and 50 rushing yards in a single game.
Lawrence has now thrown for 225-plus yards and multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games. That's the longest stretch of his career, and he has 14 touchdown passes (to six interceptions) and four rushing scores in the Jaguars' past seven games, during which they are 6-1.
Lawrence got hot after the bye in 2022 as well, when he threw 12 touchdown passes to only two interceptions to lead the Jaguars to a 6-1 record and a division title.
But Sunday's win was the most dominant fantasy performance of his career. His 44.3 points were 15.2 points more than QB2 on the week, Bo Nix, who scored 29.1.
With the effort, Lawrence has a position-leading 102.5 points over the past four weeks. That's 17.3 points more than the No. 2 over that span, Josh Allen.
As ESPN's Dan Graziano noted, in Week 15 of his fifth pro season, Lawrence is out there winning streamers their fantasy playoff matchups and looking like the player the Jags thought they were getting when they drafted him No. 1 three coaching staffs ago in 2021 . . .
Will it Persist?
The fifth-year QB is coming into his own down the back half of Liam Coen's first season in Duval. Lawrence misses a pass now and again, but he's often more decisive and capable of splash plays. He's never been better, and the Jags are better for it.
Lawrence has one of his toughest matchups all season in Week 16, a meeting with the Broncos in Denver. That hasn't scared off the Footballguys projection team, who have him finishing as QB5 this week.
He'll get the Colts in Indianapolis in Week 17 . . .
What About Etienne?
Lawrence's backfield mate, Travis Etienne Jr., scored a season-high 31.5 fantasy points, just 2.9 points off his career best (34.4, in Week 5 of 2023).
He did it by catching three of Lawrence's five touchdown passes . . .
Trust Level, High?
Yes, he'll have his work cut out for him with the Broncos, who, in addition to allowing the fifth-fewest points per game to enemy signal callers (14.0), give up the fewest points in the league to opposing running backs (17.8).
Still, I'd be more confident starting Etienne than Lawrence because Etienne's been a strong play all season.
After his RB2 overall performance last week, Etienne has been RB4 over the last four games, with 19.6 points per game.
This isn't new.
Etienne is RB10 on the season, averaging 15.8 points per game. I'm playing him for what he is, regardless of matchup . . .
What Can St. Brown Do for You?
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has etched his name into the NFL history books.
A fourth-round pick of the Lions in 2021, St. Brown has been a staple of consistency since the team added him on the third day of that NFL draft. Against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14, St. Brown added another accolade to his illustrious resume.
St. Brown set an NFL record for most receptions for a player in his first five NFL seasons with a six-catch performance against the Cowboys. He now has 511 catches in his career, with the ability to add more over the final four games of the regular season in 2025.
He broke a record previously held by Michael Thomas, who recorded 510 receptions in his first five NFL seasons with the New Orleans Saints. St. Brown reached 500 career receptions two weeks prior against the New York Giants, and did so in the second-fewest amount of games in NFL history (77).
With 81 catches and 976 yards, St. Brown entered the Week 15 game against the Rams on the cusp of finishing a fourth-straight season with over 100 catches and 1,000 receiving yards . . .
Mission Accomplished
St. Brown caught 13 of his 18 targets for 164 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-34 loss in Los Angeles. He's now caught 94 of 135 targets for 1,140 yards with 11 touchdowns.
On Tuesday, the Lions took to social media to announce that St. Brown notched the most receiving yards by a Lion through five career seasons, surpassing Calvin Johnson.
St. Brown is also the first player in team history to produce 10-plus TD receptions in three-straight seasons.
More importantly for us, St. Brown finished the week as WR1 overall with a whopping 41.4 points, setting a new personal best in that category.
As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockcroft noted, St. Brown can now claim two of his best single-game scores this year (his 39.2 in Week 2 was his third best). He has six games of 30-plus points since the beginning of 2023, tied for second and behind only Ja'Marr Chase (7) . . .
Williams, Too!
In the Lions' 34-27 overtime victory against the New York Giants in Week 12, wide receiver Jameson Williams did not catch any of his three targets. In the Lions' next game, he had a career-high seven receptions for 144 yards and one touchdown in Week 13, followed by another seven-catch game in Week 14.
Then, on Sunday, Williams matched his career high for the third game in a row with seven receptions, collecting 134 receiving yards and catching a touchdown pass, en route to a WR3 finish on the week with 26.4 points.
And though he played second-fiddle to St. Brown in this one, Williams is WR2 over the last three games, averaging 23.5 points per game. St. Brown is WR7 over that same span, averaging 18.9 points . . .
Can We Run it Back?
Play St. Brown and Williams as the WR1s they've been over the last month against the Steelers in Week 16. Worth noting, however, Pittsburgh has especially struggled to defend slot receivers, and St. Brown is one of the league's best in that role . . .
The Best Came First
As impressive as the fantasy points posted by Lawrence, Etienne, and St. Brown were in Week 15, they all took a backseat to the biggest performance of the week.
With 11 catches for 166 yards and a trio of touchdowns, Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. opened the fantasy football playoffs with one of the best performances by a tight end in NFL history.
From an NFL perspective, the numbers are historic.
SBNation's Dave Choate notes that Pitts' 166 yards were the most in Falcons franchise history for a tight end -- breaking his own record of 163 from 2021 -- and a top 40 number all-time among tight ends in NFL history.
His three touchdowns were easily a personal record and tied Alge Crumpler for the Falcons' single-game record at the position.
His 11 receptions were the third-highest single-game total for a Falcons tight end, behind Tony Gonzalez, who did it twice.
It was even better from a fantasy perspective.
Pitts' 45.6 fantasy points are the sixth-most for a tight end in a single game. According to Cockcroft, it was the fifth-most points by a tight end since 1960.
NBCSports.com's Kyle Dvorchak pointed out the last time a tight end topped 45 points in a game was when Shannon Sharpe did so in 1996.
That he did it on a Thursday night adds to the legendary aspect.
Players in NFL HISTORY to have 150+ Rec Yards, 10+ Receptions & 3+ Rec TD in a Thursday game:
— Greg Harvey (@BetweenTheNums) December 12, 2025
Kyle Pitts Sr. - Tonight
Ja’Marr Chase - 11/7/2024
That’s it. pic.twitter.com/WQwBsuVKcr
Anybody facing Pitts in the first round of their playoffs had to stew on that -- and try to come up with ways to overcome that 45.6-point deficit for three days . . .
Unrepeatable
Pitts has now scored at least 15 points in each of his past three games while working with Kirk Cousins, and his 29.0 percent target share during that span makes him seem much more like a weekly fantasy playoffs starter rather than the inconsistent player he has been over his five NFL seasons.
He'll next face the Arizona Cardinals, but there is a concern: Drake London.
The fourth-year wide receiver has missed the last four games with a PCL strain, but there's hope he could return in Week 16. Falcons head coach Raheem Morris was asked about London's status at his Monday press conference. According to Morris, his top wideout is still day-to-day but said he's "more hopeful" about London returning this weekend.
London, who practiced Wednesday, has 60 receptions for 810 receiving yards and six touchdowns this season.
Morris is happy with how Pitts has stepped up with London out of the lineup. "He was there as the No. 1 wideout, so to speak," said Morris. "He got the targets Drake would normally get."
Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason notes that without London over the last four weeks, Pitts has seen target shares of 25 percent, 26 percent, 35 percent, and 29 percent.
Pitts' fantasy totals will take a hit if London returns . . .
Bijan Puts Some Mustard on It
With Pitts dominating the fantasy production last Thursday, it's easy to overlook Bijan Robinson.
But the star halfback had 93 rushing yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in Thursday's win. He also hauled in eight passes for 82 yards, reminding the national television audience that he's genuinely a dual-threat playmaker for the Falcons.
Robinson finished the game with 31.5 fantasy points, making him RB2 for the week.
As Footballguy Sigmund Bloom suggested, it was another ceiling game, and this time against a run defense that held him to 12 carries for 24 yards in Week 1. There's hope of him delivering another big-time finish in Week 16, going up against a Cardinals defense that has yielded the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season . . .
This and That: The Best of the Rest Edition
There can only be one No. 1 scorer at each position. But there can be more who deliver key performances when they matter most. Let's review some . . .
Setting a Very High Bar
Cardinals tight end Trey McBride set some records Sunday.
In addition to catching Arizona's first two TD passes of the game, McBride had 12 receptions on 13 targets for 134 yards, with 97 of those yards coming after the catch. The Texans held McBride to only a pair of catches after his second TD, but as good as they are defensively, they had few answers for the Cardinals' tight end.
His 12 receptions put him over 100 for the season, after he posted 111 last season. That makes him the first tight end to ever catch 100 passes in back-to-back seasons. Kansas City's Travis Kelce -- who had three such seasons -- is the only tight end with multiple 100-reception seasons at any point in a career.
McBride also reached the 100-catch mark and 1,000 yards for back-to-back seasons, something not even Kelce has done.
His performance at Houston also helped him set an NFL record for most consecutive games with five or more catches. He has now done it in 16 games, passing Kelce, who held the record with 15 in 2018.
Oh, and he continued to deliver high-end fantasy production.
In fact, McBride had a season-high 37.4 points Sunday, and he did that against the Texans' top-tier defense.
How dominant has he been at the position?
Travis Kelce (TE2) is closer to David Njoku (TE28) than he is to Trey McBride (TE1)
— Bryce DeGroat (@NFL_Convo) December 15, 2025
Let that sink in.
McBride's 272.1 points on the season are better than all but three wide receivers, five running backs, and five quarterbacks.
As Bowen suggested, it's the route running, the matchup ability, and the coverage awareness with McBride. He's also the best tight end in the league on the tape. Lock him in as the overall TE1 for the rest of the fantasy playoffs with matchups against the Falcons in Week 16 and the Bengals in Week 17 . . .
On Point . . . When It Matters Most
As NFL.com's Kevin Patra asked this week, "Can the Bills be counted out of any game after yet another slow start?"
Not if quarterback Josh Allen is healthy.
After looking woefully unprepared in the first half, the Bills put together a comeback in Sunday's win over the Patriots that tied for the third biggest in franchise history (21 points).
The Bills were previously 2-60 all-time when trailing by 21 points or more. A series of five straight touchdown drives for the offense paired nicely with the defense holding the Patriots to 100 yards in the second half.
While Allen was fine, the reigning MVP went 19-of-28 passing for 193 yards and three touchdowns, adding 11 rushes for 48 yards, James Cook was the real difference maker.
Cook's 31.5 points were his most since Week 8 against Carolina (33.6).
Cook, who finished the week as RB3, scored three touchdowns in Foxboro, and he played a volume role again, finishing with 111 total yards on 24 touches.
Bowen notes that Cook has now had 20 or more touches in four straight games, and the fading Browns' run defense is on tap in Week 16.
Cook remains an RB1 candidate in that matchup . . .
Big Plays R Us
Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson finished Sunday's loss to the Bills with 148 yards on 14 carries with two touchdowns. He also caught two of three targets for 13 yards.
For the second time this season, Henderson broke away for two long touchdown runs, a pair of 50-plus yarders on which he was clocked at faster than 20 mph on each, to make anyone who played him in fantasy leagues look like a genius.
Henderson scored 30.1 fantasy points to finish as RB4.
If this seems familiar, it's because it is.
In Week 10, he scored 28.0 fantasy points, had a pair of 50-plus yard, 20-plus mph touchdowns.
Of course, Rhamondre Stevenson was on the field more. Again.
Stevenson played 10 more snaps and ran 11 more routes than Henderson against the Bills. Henderson saw eight more carries, though, and, according to Zachariason, has now hit a 12 percent-plus target share in each of his last four games.
The rookie is averaging 22.6 points per game over his last five, making him RB5 overall during that span.
Henderson is projected to finish as RB16 against an improving Baltimore defense this week.
He is still a boom/bust play against the Ravens, but given his recent outcomes and explosive play-making ability, there aren't many committee backs with Henderson's upside.
By the way, the Patriots get the Jets, one of the best matchups for running backs this season, in Week 17.
As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke suggested, it's possible that both Henderson and Stevenson could have fantasy value in the fantasy championship weekend . . .