Disclaimer
These contests are intended to be fun as you're watching the game. It's incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
Macro Level Game View
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Spread: Patriots -7.5
- Patriots Implied Team Total: 27
- Giants Implied Team Total: 19.5
Captain Consideration
New England Patriots Showdown Players
Quarterback
Drake Maye - Captain/Flex
Drake Maye leads a Patriots offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play, fifth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and tenth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). He ranks fifth in passing yards per game (260.8) and eighth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). Maye is playing at home in a phenomenal matchup against a bad Giants defense that ranks just 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End
TreVeyon Henderson - Captain/Flex
Rhamondre Stevenson returned from injury last week to receive only six carries and eight total opportunities. Meanwhile, TreVeyon Henderson's averages over his past four games: 20.3 opportunities and 102.8 total yards (both would rank ninth over the full year). He has scored five touchdowns over this span as well. With the Patriots as 7.5-point home favorites, this one sets up incredibly well for Henderson against a bad Giants defense that ranks just 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed.
Stefon Diggs - Flex
Stefon Diggs leads the Patriots in targets (75), receptions (61), and receiving yards (679). However, New England has played it safe with Diggs at times this season. With Kayshon Boutte back from injury last week, Diggs only played on 47.9% of the offensive snaps and only ran a route on 53.8% of dropbacks. Diggs is the best Patriots pass catcher play in a favorable matchup, with the caveat that we shouldn't be extremely confident in that assertion. If making multiple lineups, be sure to hedge.
Kayshon Boutte - Flex
Kayshon Boutte missed two games with a mild hamstring injury, but we don't have to worry about his health at all because he was not eased in upon his return last week. Boutte played on 80.3% of the offensive snaps and ran a route on 84.6% of dropbacks. Boutte remains tied for the team lead in touchdown receptions (5) despite his time off.
Mack Hollins - Flex
Last week, Mack Hollins led all Patriots skill position players in offensive snap rate (85.9%). He also ran a route on 79.5% of dropbacks. In that game, Hollins saw the second-most targets (6) on the team behind only Hunter Henry.
Hunter Henry - Flex
Last week, Hunter Henry feasted on a bad Bengals pass defense, catching 7 of 10 targets for 115 yards and 1 touchdown. While not as favorable, this is still another good spot for Henry against a bad Giants defense that ranks just 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
D/ST
Patriots D/ST
The Patriots are 7.5-point home favorites, and Mike Vrabel's defense is playing well this season. New England's defense ranks ninth best in EPA/Play Allowed, and eighth best in Dropback EPA Allowed.
