A month into the season is enough sample size to draw conclusions about NFL offenses and player utilization. However, the fantasy season is barreling towards the business section of the calendar, where at least 1-2 teams in a league are looking toward 2026 already. Here are the key NFL and fantasy observations at the quarterback position:
One of the key pieces of analysis for the quarterback position is comparing how a quarterback is playing beyond the fantasy stat lines and their overt counting stats. A central method I use is being critical of their touchdowns and interceptions when compared to their big-time throws vs. turnover-worthy plays. This easily leads the research to overrated and underrated performers early in the season.
Overrated Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence is one of the most overrated NFL and fantasy quarterbacks on the landscape. Jacksonville has one of the most difficult remaining schedules by aPPG, including Kansas City and Seattle the next two weeks. Also, one of the glaring stats at the entire position this season is Lawrence's 0:7 Big Time Throw (BTT) ratio. Yet, Lawrence has five touchdowns and four interceptions. The underlying data would have Lawrence on watch to be benched, if not for him being a former 1.01 selection and his enormous contract. The one thing Lawrence is doing well this season is avoiding sacks at a career-best rate.
Through two weeks, I was very Spencer Rattler positive, commenting that he deserved the starting job and might hold the position deep into the season. His 4:3 BTT ratio was encouraging. However, the small sample size has whiplashed with 0:6 BTT the past two weeks and 4:9 overall. This is bench-worthy from a job security question, especially for a low-pedigreed quarterback who has yet to win an NFL game dating back to last season. His 5:1 TD-INT ratio is completely misleading, and his worrisome profile continues to grow. The longer he continues to start without improving his underlying metrics speaks to what New Orleans thinks about Tyler Shough.
Baker Mayfield is on thin ice in terms of his profile. His Jameis Winston-esque moments have been more than moments this season, yet the credit card bill has yet to come down. His 8:1 TD-INT ratio is one of the most inflated in the NFL, considering his 11:9 BTT ratio. One specific example was his long touchdown to Emeka Egbuka in Week 4, passing through two defenders' hands on the way to Egbuka and a casual run to the end zone - a likely interception or at least an incompletion turned touchdown.
Lamar Jackson is off to the worst start of his NFL career. Like Baker Mayfield, Jackson's 10:1 TD-INT ratio does not describe how he has played. With a career 1.5 BTT ratio, Jackson's 3:6 early ratio this season is troubling, highlighted by multiple blowups on the sideline slamming down his helmet. Now, Jackson's hamstring injury complicates his situation (both rushing and when he will play next) in addition to his poor play despite a quality stat line.
Aaron Rodgers is another deceptive quarterback through the opening month. His 3:6 BTT ratio is bench-worthy and he has at least one turnover-worthy play in every game. He is producing fewer high-level throws than every before in his career. With a bye week and Cleveland over the next two weeks, Rodgers is a cut candidate in shallower redraft leagues and an ideal trade candidate in Superflex dynasty formats.
Underrated Quarterbacks
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