Roundtable: Paper Champion Defenses

The Footballguys roundtable shares which defenses are better fantasy matchups than they appear on paper.

Matt Waldman's Roundtable: Paper Champion Defenses Matt Waldman Published 10/02/2025

© Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images roundtable

Welcome to Week 5 of the 2025 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

Let's roll...

Matt Waldman: Share a defense that ranks as a neutral or tough matchup statistically against a specific skill position, but you believe is much more favorable than the numbers indicate. 

Jason Wood: Four weeks into the season, the Eagles’ pass defense is far and away the toughest against opposing fantasy receivers. That makes sense on multiple levels, as the unit features one of the NFL's best young cover cornerbacks in Quinyon Mitchell and one of the best nickel backs in Cooper DeJean. However, the group has an Achilles heel at the other cornerback spot. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has frequently and unapologetically criticized all the options, including Adoree' Jackson, Kelee Ringo, and Jakorian Bennett.

Now that both Jackson and Bennett are injured, the position has become a massive problem. Talented offenses are almost certain to test that weakness a few times per game. We saw it last week when the Buccaneers scored on two long touchdowns.

David Zacharias: The Tennessee Titans have the 9th-best defense versus tight ends through four games, giving up 9.6 PPR fantasy points per game to the position. In Week 5, however, the Titans travel to Arizona to face a top-three tight end, Trey McBride.

Tennessee's opponents have targeted the tight end position 5.8 times per game. McBride has been targeted 52% more frequently (8.8 times per game) and averaged 40 percent more PPR fantasy points (13.4). Arizona is favored by 7.5 points in this matchup, and I expect McBride to be a key chainmover. 

Will Grant: The Ravens' defense looked solid from a fantasy perspective going into this season.  I would be stunned if they were not drafted in well over 90 percent of the fantasy leagues going into week one. However, after a 1-3 start and giving up a league-worst 133 points, many fantasy owners, myself included, have cut bait and picked up better options.  

But the Ravens had a rough start, facing the Bills, Lions, and Chiefs in their three losses this year. Their schedule gets much easier as the season progresses, with two games against the Bengals, another against the Browns, and home games against the Texans, Bears, and Jets.

None of these teams is even close to the level of offensive talent that the Ravens faced in Buffalo, Detroit, and Kansas City. The Ravens should dominate all of those games from the defensive side of the ball.

Consider picking them up this week before the Texans come to town and give Baltimore a chance to 'get right' on defense as they try to save their season. 

Corey Spala: Jacksonville’s defense has a league-leading 13 turnovers and is allowing the fifth-fewest points per game. The defense is neutral, allowing the 15th most yards per game and notably the 4th fewest rushing yards per game.

They have faced three teams that are in the bottom 10 of total yards per game, and the other opponent was San Francisco, which ranks fifth in total yards per game. They totaled 325 yards. Jacksonville did play Cincinnati in Week 2 when Joe Burrow got injured and Jake Browning threw for 241 yards.

The offense totaled 400 yards. For a frame of reference, Cincinnati is averaging the fewest yards per game. 

Jacksonville’s defense has forced at least three turnovers per game, limiting an offense’s ability. Despite these turnovers, they are allowing 24 points per game.
 
It is not reasonable to expect a consistent three turnovers per game, which would limit an offense's total production. Last year, Buffalo had the highest percentage of drives ending in a turnover, yet they had four games with over three turnovers and seven games with at least one.
 
Jacksonville will play Kansas City, Seattle, and the Los Angeles Rams over the next three weeks. These offenses are significantly better than what Jacksonville has played.
 
The threat of passing offenses may lead to an increase in rushing production; this could be due to the receiving weapons needing attention or if the game script leans heavily on the rushing attack. 
 
Josh Fahlsing: Man, you are pulling me out of my comfort zone to make me talk about defenses. I am going to keep this specifically focused on this week and the matchup between the New England run defense. 
 
Currently third in the league in rushing yards allowed per game with a mere 77.5, the Patriots face the league-leading rushing offense of the Buffalo Bills, who have rolled to 654 yards on the ground through four weeks. I'm not quite ready to call them paper champions, but I think we will get a chance to see this week whether the New England run defense is for real when they visit Buffalo to face James Cook and Josh Allen.
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