Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
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Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections, as well as my insights, to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Week 1 NFL player props.
Week 1 NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Romeo Doubs Over/Under 18.5 Longest Reception (Hard Rock)
Jayden Reed is dealing with a foot injury, Dontayvion Wicks is seemingly a backup, and Matthew Golden is just a rookie. So why are we taking a Romeo Doubs under play?
On the surface, things look good for Doubs. He was able to hit this line in 8 of 13 regular-season games last year, and it's likely the Packers will have to throw to beat the Lions.
However, I'm not convinced that Doubs is going to be a deep threat right now for this team, and that's why I'm taking the under here. The Lions played the highest amount of man coverage in 2024, at over 40%, and Doubs had the fifth-highest target share amongst the wide receivers on the team against man coverage at only 17%.
The Lions were actually a sneakily good coverage team as well, ranking seventh-best against WR2s in 2024 by DVOA. Doubs could be a good play to see some volume, but with a paltry 8.3 yards per target last season, I don't think he has a 19-yard catch or longer.
PICK: Doubs UNDER 18.5 longest reception (-115)
David Njoku Over/Under 17.5 Longest Reception (DraftKings)
Death, taxes, and starting your tight ends against the Cincinnati Bengals. Njoku and Joe Flacco had an instant connection when the former was plucked off the bench for the Browns for six weeks of action in 2023, a stretch where Njoku went 5-1 to the over on this NFL player prop.
Undoubtedly, the Browns will have to throw the ball at some point in this matchup against the Bengals, and I'm counting on Njoku and Flacco to hook up once again for a juicy chunk play.
PICK: Njoku OVER 17.5 longest reception (-110)