Reading the New Defense returns for its third season at Footballguys.com. The column investigates how new defensive coordinators impact individual defensive players' fantasy prospects for the upcoming season.
Eleven NFL defenses have new coordinators in 2024. While three of them offer general scheme consistency year over year, eight more promise significant changes to their new environs in 2025. Just two of these coordinators' track records suggest they will change between even- and odd-front nomenclature.
Previous installments: Falcons | Saints | Bears | Cowboys | Jaguars | Colts
To Blitz or Not to Blitz
There's an old cliché about blitzing. A defense blitzes either because it can or because it must.
The New York Jets, led by head coach Aaron Glenn and defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, think they can in 2025. They replaced cornerback D.J. Reed with a bigger, more physical Brandon Stephens on a 3-year $36 million contract and added Andre Cisco to play centerfield for $8.5 million on a one-year prove-it deal.
Jermaine Johnson, a Pro Bowler in 2023, returns from a torn Achilles suffered in September 2024. The Jets' defensive end room lacks the depth to which Saleh was accustomed. If Johnson cannot return to form, the defense will likely need to blitz to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
If Glenn and Wilks are blitzing, they're more likely to be in man coverage. A team does not necessarily need to play man to blitz – the Vikings led the league last year in frequency of both blitzing and zone coverage. Glenn and Wilks's historical tendencies, however, are to show a single high safety. When they blitz, they're often in Cover-1, the most common man coverage, and when they don't blitz, they're most likely to keep seven coverage players back in Cover-3, the most common zone coverage in the NFL.
The Jets' primary linebackers, Quincy Williams and Jamien Sherwood, rank among the top 15 drafted, on average, at their position in the Fast Draft Fantasy tournament. The value in these selections by gamers hinges on how well Stephens, Cisco, and Johnson hold up.
Scheme Differences That Matter
Almost all NFL defenses utilize a 4-2-5 nickel subpackage for the majority of their defensive reps. Unlike Tom Landry's 4-3 Flex defense, the defensive ends of the current-day 4-2-5 line up wide of the offensive tackles. Twenty-first-century NFL defenses differ from one another in three primary ways that impact IDP statistical output.
Zone Vs. Man Coverage
Zone coverage by a defense significantly improves the inside linebackers' rate of tackling per snap. A coach's historical tendencies and the personnel available to him for the upcoming season empower us to make educated guesses as to how often a defense will use zone coverage and, to an extent, how efficiently the inside linebackers will make tackles.
#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2024:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 9, 2025
Cover-2: 15.8%
Cover-6: 15.7%
Cover-4: 14.9%
Cover-3: 14.5%
AVERAGE LB TKL EFFICIENCY: 13.1%
Cover-1: 10.4%
Cover-0: 7.9%
2-MAN: 7.5%
Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones… https://t.co/FXZdUm3Jdd
One High Vs. Two High Safeties
Two-high coverages have received disproportionate attention from mainstream media in this decade. Only the Vikings showed them more than half the time in 2024. Two-high coverages have, however, grown in use over the past decade, making volume tacklers at the safety position harder to spot. Reduced competition from safeties in the middle of the field marginally improves inside linebackers' tackling prospects.
A team that plays predominantly one-high coverages can infuse one of its two safeties with a statistical uptick if it deploys one, typically the strong safety, close to the line of scrimmage more frequently than the other. For reference, Pro Football Focus collects tackle efficiencies for safeties by alignment in the defense. PFF's Jon Macri reports the data on X.
2024 proved lucrative for fantasy gamers chasing strong safeties in one-high defenses. The in-season version of this column closed by debriefing this phenomenon.
Rush Strategy
Some teams ask their pass rushers to mush rush or two-gap, while select linemen on other teams have the green light to get upfield with reckless abandon. The former duties are integral to run defense, wherein the defender must account for more than one running lane. Green-lit defensive tackles, meanwhile, can shoot one gap and have higher sack upside.
Quinnen Williams keeps it simple & violent. Quickly strikes/sheds his blocker & gets the TFL! #StopTheRun #TakeFlight pic.twitter.com/EVZ0SaNudN
— DLineVids (@dlinevids1) December 29, 2023
Jets Defensive Tackles
The Jets signed nose tackle Derrick Nnadi to pair with one-time All-Pro Quinnen Williams at defensive tackle. Nnadi played alongside another former All-Pro, Chris Jones, in Kansas City. Jones averaged 10.3 quarterback sacks throughout those years, even after a down year for both Jones and Nnadi in 2024.
The Jets hope the 29-year-old Nnadi can return to form in 2025. Williams has cleared a sack total of 7.0 just once in his six-year career. The addition of Nnadi suggests that Aaron Glenn and Steve Wilks plan to turn Williams loose as a pass rusher. Under Robert Saleh, Williams would play more interchangeably with his linemate. Nnadi, with a grand total of 5.0 career sacks, will focus on run defense.
The depth behind Nnadi and Williams is a fistful of dart throws. Williams should clear a 70 percent snap share (about 800 snaps in 17 games) for the first time in his career in 2025.
Jets Edge Defenders
The Jets selected their starting defensive ends in the first round of consecutive drafts in 2022 and 2023. Each player came on as a sophomore after a slow start.
The aforementioned Jermaine Johnson will bookend Will McDonald IV. Johnson looked like the more complete player in 2023, while McDonald flashed as a pass rusher (10.5 sacks) last year. Workmanlike Michael Clemons and journeyman Rashad Weaver are the only players with significant experience behind the starters.
The Jets need Johnson to play a large volume while Clemons relieves McDonald in clear running situations. The Jets missed the fifth-most tackles in 2024 per Pro Football Reference and backslid in run defense. If Nnadi and Johnson aren't answers, the Jets could be in for another long season.
Jets Linebackers
Former college safety Jamien Sherwood broke out after veteran C.J. Mosley's body broke down. Playing on the final year of his rookie deal, Sherwood earned a 3-year $45 million deal to remain in New York. Sherwood's 158 combined tackles and 2.0 sacks in 16 starts likewise endeared him to fantasy gamers.
Sherwood will play alongside Quinnen Williams's brother, Quincy, in the second level. While Quinnen starred at Alabama and became the third overall pick of the 2019 NFL draft, Quincy Williams played at Murray State. The Jaguars shocked observers by drafting him in the third round that same year. Quincy washed out in Jacksonville, landed in New York, worked his way into the starting lineup, and earned All-Pro recognition in 2023.
Quincy Williams's All-Pro campaign is the only season in which he's made more than 116 tackles. His career average tackle rate is below 12 percent (about 1 tackle every 8.5 snaps). Big plays have boosted Quincy's fantasy value: 20 passes defensed, 9.0 sacks, 9 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, and an interception in four seasons as a Jet.
The reserve linebackers sport similar backgrounds to the defensive line depth. All are recent late-round draft picks, UDFAs, or veterans hoping to stick on a roster.
Since 2022 there are only 4 players in the NFL who have 235+ solo tackles, 20+ TFLs, and 5+ forced fumbles in regular season games.
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) July 9, 2025
Who are they?
Zaire Franklin
Quincy Williams
Lavonte David
Bobby Okereke pic.twitter.com/qT3GqWktD3
Jets Coverages
Steve Wilks has been responsible for five different defenses in four NFL cities for one year each. He's been in Carolina twice, but those appearances were five years apart. As a result, his track record does not evidence his tendencies as well. Many coordinators do not fully install their schemes in Year 1 due to the learning curve and lack of personnel to execute.
Wilks most recently coordinated the 49ers' defense in 2023. Aaron Glenn coordinated the Lions' defense from 2021 to 2024. Both coaches have used dime personnel very sparingly. Jamien Sherwood and Quincy Williams are both highly likely to play full-time regardless of who wears the green dot and relays signals.
In 2023, both coordinators showed MOFO (middle-of-the-field open, or two high safeties) structures about a quarter of the time. Wilks's 49ers used man coverage a shade less than the league average rate of 25 percent, while Glenn's Lions played man incrementally more often.
In 2024, Aaron Glenn joined the trend of defensive coordinators showing more MOFO structures with usage eclipsing the league average by a half a percentage point, to 37.9 percent. Glenn's use of man coverage increased 13 percentage points, to 40.4 percent of the time, from 2023 to 2024.
The 2024 Detroit Lions increased their blitz rate from 28.7 percent of snaps in 2023 to 34.6 percent in 2024, according to Pro Football Reference. They blitzed more and played more man coverage after star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson suffered a season-ending injury in Week 5.
Defensive captain, linebacker Alex Anzalone collected more than 8 combined tackles in just 1 of his 10 starts in 2024, a Week-1 overtime win over the Rams. In 2023, Anzalone made at least 9 combined tackles in 7 games across 17 starts.
Jets Defensive Backs
Steve Wilks has always used more zone coverages than Aaron Glenn. Despite the Jets' insistence that they wish to be more physical and use press-man coverage, preliminary indications suggest that $36 million cornerback Brandon Stephens is not up to the task. Wilks may have no choice but to settle into off-man or zone coverages to help Stephens. The high volume of pass break-ups that Aaron Glenn envisions will be harder to achieve.
Stephens has been one of the most targeted cornerbacks in coverage throughout the league in consecutive seasons playing opposite Marlon Humphrey. 2025 should be no different with Sauce Gardner on the other boundary.
would you believe us if we told you this was the first play of 7-on-7? pic.twitter.com/I4Ax2NJQUt
— New York Jets (@nyjets) July 23, 2025
Andre Cisco showed promise as a free safety in Mike Caldwell's single-high zone coverages in 2023. Like most of the Jaguars, Cisco backslid under Ryan Nielsen.
Like Detroit, Jacksonville used more man coverages and more MOFO structures last season. Both Wilks and Glenn employed quarters coverage – Cover-4 with split safeties – frequently in past stops. The Jets should rank in the top ten in its use in 2025. Cisco's experience fits what the Jets want to do; now, he must execute.
Incumbent strong safety Tony Adams, a former undrafted free agent, will line up next to Cisco. Michael Carter II returns in the slot.
The Jets drafted two defensive backs in the middle rounds of the 2025 draft who should push for playing time. Azareye'h Thomas, a 6-foot-2 cornerback from Florida State, fell to the third round after his 4.58 40-yard dash at the NFL combine had evaluators questioning his recovery speed. Aaron Glenn dismissed that concern and praised Thomas for his physicality.
While Thomas looks like a Plan B to Stephens at corner, fourth-rounder Malachi Moore does not profile as the strong safety to complement Cisco as a centerfielder. Instead, the Alabama product fits as an interchangeable split safety.
2025 Jets Defense Outlook
The Jets finished third in total defense for two consecutive seasons and fifth the year before. Despite this apparent success, they have allowed more and more points each year since 2022, falling to 20th last season.
The 2025 offseason cost the team depth. The replacement of D.J. Reed by Brandon Stephens is a head-scratcher despite Reed's smaller stature. The one-year gamble on Cisco is an interesting move, one that might have advisably been duplicated at nose tackle. Derrick Nnadi et al might just be warm bodies that compose a soft underbelly in this defense.
A cornerstone at each level of the defense should make the unit competitive. The promising young defenders around them must not only perform but stay healthy. Improving on a middling defense while salvaging Justin Fields's career appears the most likely route to success. It also feels like a tall order.
2025 Jets IDP Outlook
The Jets' new coaches will double down on Quinnen Williams. Without another credible interior pass-rush threat, Steve Wilks will scheme to keep him from being double-teamed. He is a threat to surpass a double-digit sack total for the second time in his career.
Like the defense as a whole, Williams has slid down the fantasy leaderboard year to year. He finished 5th among defensive tackles by Footballguys' scoring in 2022, and has newfound upside to re-establish himself as a top option. Fantasy gamers are eager for a bounce-back season, making him the 9th defensive tackle off the board, on average, in Fast Draft Fantasy's D-Up best-ball tournament despite a lackluster 2024 campaign.
Will McDonald IV is a DE3 by ADP, a reasonable price for his boom/bust profile. Jermaine Johnson, meanwhile, is being forgotten. Like the Colts' edge defenders featured last week, McDonald parallels Laiatu Latu, while Jermaine Johnson's outlook resembles that of Kwity Paye. Johnson should be the more consistent fantasy asset as a more accomplished run defender. If he's fully recovered from the Achilles injury that cost him 2024, he fits as a low-end DE2 who can be drafted after 100 IDPs have come off the board.
would you believe us if we told you this was the first play of 7-on-7? pic.twitter.com/I4Ax2NJQUt
— New York Jets (@nyjets) July 23, 2025
If optimism about the starting defensive ends can be paired with skepticism about Brandon Stephens, Steve Wilks will find himself getting pressure with four and playing zone behind them. This scenario infuses Jamien Sherwood's ADP with a bit of upside. Last year's 10th-ranked linebacker by fantasy points (Footballguys scoring) is the 15th linebacker off the board according to FastDraft ADP.
Quincy Williams landed 10th on the Footballguys leaderboard in 2023, his best finish, and 16th last year, yet he's the 7th linebacker by ADP. Sherwood made more tackles last year, his first as a starter, and at a higher rate per snap than Williams has in any season. Big plays on a successful defense have fueled Williams's production. Success that may be more fleeting in 2025. The possibility that the Jets play more man coverage adds further risk to his unjustified LB1 price tag. Williams should be drafted closer to Sherwood.
With the big contract afforded him by the front office, new coaches are unlikely to bench Brandon Stephens in their first year. Stephens should yet again rank among the most targeted cornerbacks in the league, making him a fantasy CB2 candidate.
The more aggressive defense that Aaron Glenn envisions could make Tony Adams a free square for fantasy. He's recorded 166 combined tackles, including 8 for loss in two years as a starter. These numbers should rise in the new defense. Brian Branch's tackle total rose from 74 in 2023, when nickel was his primary position, to 109 as the strong safety in Glenn's defense last year.
While Adams is no Branch, he will push 100 combined tackles thanks to alignments close to the line of scrimmage if he plays full-time. Equally likely, Adams will rotate with Moore, in which case he can be dropped in Week 2 for the first big name off the waiver wire.
Summer Plans
Reading the New Defense will drop each week throughout the summer with a fresh look at expectations for defenses under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow @DynastyTripp on the app formerly known as Twitter.
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