Reading the New Defense: Chicago Bears

Reading the New Defense returns for its third season at Footballguys.com. The column examines how new defensive coordinators affect the fantasy prospects of individual defensive players for the upcoming season.

Eleven NFL defenses have new coordinators in 2024. While three of them offer general scheme consistency year over year, eight more promise significant changes to their new environs in 2025. Two of these coordinators' track records suggest they will change between even- and odd-front nomenclature.

Previous editions: Falcons | Saints

More Monstrous in the Midway

Historically good defenses have carried the Chicago Bears to two Super Bowls, living up to their long-time moniker, "Monsters of the Midway." The Bears' fan base has long craved a havoc-wreaking defense and will welcome Dennis Allen's more aggressive approach, provided it generates the game-altering plays of Bears' lore.

Last week's installment of 'Reading the New Defense' contrasted Brandon Staley's conservative approach, which relies heavily on zone coverages, with Dennis Allen's scheme. Allen spent ten years in New Orleans, first as defensive coordinator under Sean Payton and then as head coach.

Dennis Allen brings a more aggressive approach in 2025. He will play more man coverage and "challenge everything." Outgoing coach Matt Eberflus' more conservative defense sought to limit big plays. The latter allowed more short completions that, in part, propped up linebackers' tackle numbers.

Both Allen and Eberflus use a 4-3 base defense; however, Allen more frequently shows over fronts and odd fronts. In Eberflus' underfront, the undertackle Gervon Dexter Sr was a one-gapping interior penetrator. His role will be more diverse in 2025. Allen will have him controlling running lanes as he did at Florida State.

Scheme Differences That Matter

Almost all NFL defenses utilize a 4-2-5 nickel subpackage for the majority of their defensive reps. Unlike Tom Landry's 4-3 Flex defense, the defensive ends of the current-day 4-2-5 line up wide of the offensive tackles. Twenty-first-century NFL defenses differ from one another in three primary ways that impact IDP statistical output.

Zone Vs. Man Coverage

Zone coverage by a defense significantly improves the inside linebackers' rate of tackling per snap. A coach's historical tendencies and the personnel available to him for the upcoming season empower us to make educated guesses as to how often a defense will use zone coverage and to an extent, how efficiently the inside linebackers will make tackles.

#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2024:

Cover-2: 15.8%
Cover-6: 15.7%
Cover-4: 14.9%
Cover-3: 14.5%

AVERAGE LB TKL EFFICIENCY: 13.1%

Cover-1: 10.4%
Cover-0: 7.9%
2-MAN: 7.5%

Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones… https://t.co/FXZdUm3Jdd

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 9, 2025

One High Vs. Two High Safeties

Two-high coverages have received disproportionate attention from mainstream media in this decade. Only the Vikings showed them more than half the time in 2024. Two-high coverages have, however, grown in use over the past decade and made volume tacklers at the safety position harder to identify. Reduced competition from safeties in the middle of the field marginally improves inside linebackers' tackling prospects.

Meanwhile, a team that plays predominantly one-high coverages can infuse one of its two safeties with a statistical uptick if it deploys one, typically the strong safety, close to the line of scrimmage more frequently than the other. For example, Pro Football Focus collects tackle efficiencies for safeties by alignment in the defense. PFF's Jon Macri reports the data as follows.

#FFIDP - For safety rankings/projections, knowing how unstable that fantasy production can be, rankings start with playing time and potential deployment because...

Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment in 2024:

BOX: 11.3% ?
SLOT: 10.4% ?

-- Average: 9.6% --

DEEP:…

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 16, 2025

2024 proved lucrative for fantasy gamers chasing strong safeties in one-high defenses. The in-season version of this column closed by debriefing this phenomenon.

Rush Strategy

Some teams ask their pass rushers to mush rush or use heavy technique, while select linemen on other teams have the green light to get upfield with reckless abandon. The former set is integral to run defense. Green-lit defensive tackles typically have higher sack upside.

Gervon Dexter Sr was typically, but not always, penetrating in Matt Eberflus' defense. In these clips, his rush is more controlled first to run a stunt, and then to play the run.

Gervon Dexter Sr lead the Bears in pass rush grade per PFF (71.1.)

He's becoming VERY hard to block 1 on 1 he's been showing quickness and strength consistently. #DaBears #Bears #ChicagoBears pic.twitter.com/TtHbznrObT

— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) October 25, 2023

Bears Defensive Tackles

Long-time Atlanta Falcon Grady Jarrett signed a remarkable 3-year $42.75 million contract to join the Bears in March. The 32-year-old has just 4.0 sacks through the last two seasons (25 games played).

Jarrett will pair with Dexter in the starting line-up, relegating incumbent nose tackle Andrew Billings to a reserve role. Jarrett and Dexter will operate interchangeably, with one serving as the interior disruptor and the other holding the point of attack in alternation. Despite starting last season, Billings was never going to offer fantasy value as a space-occupier in the middle.

Defensive tackle Bryan Bresee led the Saints with 7.5 sacks last season, evidencing upside for Chicago defensive tackles in 2025. Either Dexter will elevate his game, or Jarrett must rebound to match Bresee's total. Bresee also made just 25 combined tackles in 2024, as he was a liability in run defense. The most likely scenario for Jarrett and Dexter is a greater balance in sacks and tackles that leave each on the margins of fantasy relevance.

Bears Edge Defenders

If Jarrett's contract was something to behold, the Bears outdid themselves by signing former Colt Dayo Odeyingbo to a 3-year $48 million contract. The 2021 2nd-round pick accumulated 16.5 sacks and 106 tackles during his rookie contract. The 25-year-old's untapped upside is believed to have driven up his price in the free-agent market.

Odeyingbo will start opposite 28-year-old Montez Sweat, a former 1st-round pick for whom Chicago traded in 2023. He burst onto the Midway scene, collecting 6.0 sacks in his first six games. Last year, he was banged up in Week 8 and missed Week 9. He battled through the injury the rest of the way, recording just 2.0 sacks.

Chicago lacks depth behind Sweat and Odeyingbo. Assuming 2nd-rounder Shemar Turner plays primarily inside, Dennis Allen must choose between playing the starters 800+ snaps or relying on former late-round picks Austin Booker and Dominique Robinson in key spots.

Montez sweat will thrive this year, dennis allen loves utilizing a unique defensive front using a singular 9-tech edge rusher, due to 9 tech being so outside it will give sweat the opportunity to use his speed and power to take advantage of bad angles from the tackles he's facing https://t.co/WgKYeTzDut pic.twitter.com/3j2Kl6ovlH

— Grim Warren (@GrimKevinWarren) June 23, 2025

Bears Linebackers

T.J. Edwards has finished each of the last three seasons as a fantasy LB1 thanks in part to the frequent zone coverages played by his Bears in 2023 and 2024. Increasing reliance on man coverages in 2025 puts downward pressure on Edwards' value.

His chances to maintain LB1 status rest on Dennis Allen's deployment of him and his running mate, Tremaine Edmunds. In New Orleans, Allen had Demario Davis utilize his superior coverage skills to carry tight ends downfield. Pete Werner and other Davis sidekicks would attack the flats. Before Allen was fired in the middle of the 2024 season, Davis was notorious among fantasy gamers for low tackle efficiency. Quite simply, a player with his back to the line of scrimmage makes fewer tackles.

Edmunds is more athletic than Edwards, while Edwards better reads defenses. A split in which Edmunds plays deeper in coverage would be inherently logical, except that the former Bill has been a career disappointment. Reports from OTAs suggest Edwards is the weak-side linebacker while Edmunds mans the middle, consistent with this expectation.

Bears Coverages

Over the past two seasons under defensive coordinator Joe Woods, the Saints increasingly utilized two-high structures in coverage, on trend with the rest of the league. Overall, they retained a slight lean to one-high utilization, which had long been a feature before Dennis Allen ascended to the top job. An open question in 2025, then, is whether Woods has influenced Allen's approach or if he'll revert to past tendencies.

After a year of playing more zone, the Saints resumed playing man coverage about a third of the time in 2024. As noted earlier, the effect of man coverage versus zone on IDP outcomes is greater than that of MOFC versus MOFO coverages. Notably, most man coverage schemes are MOFC (middle-of-the-field closed) with one high safety.

The Bears' secondary is the strength of the defense and arguably the team. Jaylon Johnson is a solid boundary corner, and Kyler Gordon is emerging at nickel. Former All-Pro Kevin Byard III pairs with Jaquan Brisker at safety. The inconsistent Tyrique Stevenson is the other boundary cornerback in a make-or-break Year 4 of his rookie deal.

Back and help will shade toward the 6-foot-0, 212-pound Stevenson. Like Paulson Adebo, Stevenson will have the opportunity to play tight man coverage nearer the line of scrimmage, an arrangement that could return him to the ranks of fantasy CB1s. He posted 86 combined tackles and 16 passes defensed in 2023 while leading the league in targets by opposing quarterbacks. His numbers dipped slightly in 2024 thanks to fewer targets.

As a fantasy asset, Kyler Gordon has been a disappointment from his nickelback position; however, he merits monitoring after Alontae Taylor posted 45 combined tackles and 4.0 sacks in 8 games as New Orleans' nickelback in 2024.

In 35 career games, Jaquan Brisker has recorded 249 combined tackles, including 11 for loss, along with 6.0 sacks and 13 passes defensed. Offseason reports indicate he's fully healthy after missing most of 2024 to a concussion. Brisker should enjoy opportunities near the line of scrimmage as the strong safety in Dennis Allen's defense.

Put that pressure on them ?s ain't no loses! #NoComparisons?? #OTAs pic.twitter.com/c31RYzb9b3

— Quanny B. (@JaquanBrisker) June 16, 2025

2025 Bears Defense Outlook

The 2024 Bears defense allowed more than 6,000 yards of offense, sixth-worst in the league. The unit was surprisingly middling or better in several key categories, including points allowed, turnovers forced, sacks, and quarterback pressure percentage, according to Pro Football Reference.

Dennis Allen will be expected to reduce offenses' ability to go up and down Soldier Field while maintaining, if not gaining, big plays. The dubious investments in Dayo Odeyingbo and Grady Jarrett must pay off to meet expectations. The more aggressive approach and change increased use of man coverage could result in more defensive breakdowns and thus, more big plays. It took the Saints a couple of seasons to acclimate to Allen's scheme when he arrived in New Orleans. Patience will be necessary before an Allen defense regains standing among the league's top units.

I know people have concerns about Shemar Turner's on-field discipline, and he'll have to tone it down a bit.

But I'd rather have a player who's too passionate than someone who doesn't care. Turner plays his ass off and plays smart — a great combo. #Bears pic.twitter.com/lV6B4zqo8V

— Jacob Infante (@jacobinfante24) June 4, 2025

2025 Bears IDP Outlook

Chicago's weak group of edge defenders is among the top reasons the unit won't greatly improve in 2025. The same lack of depth only increases interest in Montez Sweat as a fantasy option. Sweat is only occasionally drafted in FastDraft Fantasy's D-Up tournament. Assuming good health, he could push 900 snaps and clear 70 combined tackles like New Orleans' Carl Granderson did in 2023.

Dayo Odeyingbo merits a roster spot only on platforms that continue to separate 3-4 outside linebackers from other edge defenders. Expected volume alone makes him an option worth monitoring in all formats.

Gervon Dexter Sr and Grady Jarrett, in that order, should be drafted in deeper leagues that require two starting defensive tackles each week. Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon are highly recognizable names in CB-required leagues, and both are worth picks in such leagues for 2025.

Jaquan Brisker might be off fantasy drafters' lists after his struggle to recover from his Week 5 concussion last year. He's worth an aggressive move because safety is among the easier positions to replace and stream if draft picks for the position don't work out. Brisker finished 2023 as a SAF1 even in Matt Eberflus' conservative defense.

T.J. Edwards finished 12th among fantasy linebackers by Footballguys scoring. His FastDraft Fantasy ADP makes him the fifth most popular linebacker. Notably, the latter uses big-play scoring; however, the ADP of 15 among all IDPs offers nothing but downside for gamers investing in Edwards.

Tremaine Edmunds stands at 31 among fantasy linebackers on the Footballguys leaderboard for 2024. His ADP of 94 overall might seem like a value, but Edmunds and his fit in Dennis Allen's defense offer little reason for optimism.

Summer Plans

Reading the New Defense will drop each week throughout the summer with a fresh look at expectations for defenses under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the app formerly known as Twitter.