Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Washington vs Chicago
After the Week 5 performance, it may be time for Jacory Croskey-Merritt to fully take over this backfield. Crosky-Merritt was outstanding last week against the Chargers as he had 111 yards on 14 carries and found the end zone twice. What was most important was that he saw a season-high 47% of snaps, which is critical for the Commanders' running back to see his snap share continue to grow ahead of Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols. The one concern for Croskey-Merritt is the game script. He's an excellent running back, but where he has struggled is in his pass blocking. If the Commanders find themselves in a negative game script, he's likely going to see his playing time reduce, as he did against Atlanta in Week 4, where he only had seven carries. He's not someone who is an elite receiver this early in his career, which, to be a consistent fantasy producer, is something he will need to improve on to reduce the volatility.
Chicago is coming off a bye week, which they hope allowed them to fix their run defense. This is a team that has had some significant issues through the first five weeks, mostly driven by health. They've seen significant injuries to their secondary, forcing them to put more emphasis on stopping the pass, which has left their run-stopping ability decimated. This is a team that started the year with the defensive line as a big question. They brought in Grady Jarrett after they missed on some of the more high-profile defensive tackles. Jarrett is nowhere close to the player he was from 2018 to 2020, when he made two Pro Bowls and one All-Pro team. He has struggled to stay healthy and has struggled to stop the run. If there is good news for a team giving up 6.1 yards per carry, it is that they do get slot corner Kyler Gordon back this week, which is a start to their secondary improving health-wise. While they still will not have Jaylon Johnson, their elite corner, Gordon's return is a significant improvement, which may allow them to focus on enhancing their run-stopping after the bye.
LA Chargers at Miami
The big news in Los Angeles is that Omarion Hampton was placed on IR with an ankle injury suffered in Week 5. With Najee Harris already out, this leaves a massive hole for the Chargers to try to put together a capable running back room. It's likely to be a committee between Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal, while the team signed Nyheim Hines to the practice squad. For this week, it is likely to be Haskins for the first and second-down runs as he's 6'2'' 230 pounds, while Vidal, at 5'8'' 215 pounds, will likely see more of the third-down work. Vidal is the more explosive runner, so if Haskins does struggle, Vidal has more upside of the two players. Haskins is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry in his three seasons in the NFL, which running behind one of the league's worst offensive lines is not going to help improve those statistics. The Chargers' offensive line has also been decimated with injuries. Left tackle Joe Alt could return this week, which would be a massive improvement for the Chargers, but Los Angeles could be without Mekhi Becton and right tackle Trey Pipkins. This was after they already lost Rashawn Slater for the year this offseason. If the Chargers are completely unable to run the ball, expect Vidal to see more work as the receiving back, while Hines could eat into this in future weeks.
Miami's defense is collapsing. Last week, Rico Dowdle ran for 206 yards and a touchdown against what was anticipated to be a strength of this team. Heading into the season, the Dolphins' defensive line was exciting as it was year two for first-round pick Chop Robinson, they got Bradley Chubb back after he missed all of 2023, and Zach Sieler up the middle had been a reliable veteran. Now, this year, it's all collapsed. It seems like there is no energy in the Miami locker room, as head coach Mike McDaniel looks worn down. The defensive line has been a reflection of the team's culture, going from a pre-season strength to arguably one of the worst in the NFL this season. They continue to get pushed around by opposing offensive lines and have now allowed 80 yards or more in three straight games to James Cook, Breece Hall, and Rico Dowdle. Big plays have haunted them, as safety Ashtyn Davis has been a liability, as he was a big reason why Carolina's running backs had nine touches that were 10+ yards or more, and Rico Dowdle had two 40+ yard runs against this Miami defense. It seems inevitable that there will be some sort of in-season change for Miami, whether it is McDaniel or some coaching staff, but this team needs some sort of spark, as it seems as if they're checked out here in Week 6.
LA Rams at Baltimore
The Rams' backfield has been one of the most difficult situations to figure out this season. Heading into last week, it started to look like Blake Corum was going to continue to take on more workload throughout the season, yet an early fumble caused Corum to see just one carry last week. How the Rams will respond after their 26-23 overtime loss is still to be determined, as Kyren Williams has fumbled twice, including last week. Williams has played much better after his slow start to the season. Despite his volume decreasing in the last two weeks to just 13.5 carries per game, he has topped 60 yards in every game this season. Last week, we saw eight receptions from the running back, a skill set that gives him a significant advantage over Corum going forward. Throughout Sean McVay's history, he's preferred to have a single running back instead of a committee, and we may see him returning to this approach with Williams going forward.
Baltimore made the right call this past week in sticking by defensive coordinator Zach Orr despite a troubling start defensively that has not been up to their standard. Last week was abysmal for Baltimore as they lost 44-10 to Houston. As we mentioned last week, this defense has seen more injuries at critical positions than we've seen in a long time. Making matters worse is how quickly it has all happened. Sometimes you'll see a team with this many injuries at the end of the season, but this has all occurred in the last two weeks. This year, Baltimore is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, the fifth-most yards per game, and they've largely been bailed out as they've faced one of the easiest running back schedules to start the year, as they've faced Houston, Kansas City, and Cleveland in three of their five games so far. Last week, Nick Chubb looked like the Nick Chubb of old as he had 61 yards on just 11 carries as the Texans gashed the interior of the defensive line for Baltimore. While the Ravens do get All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton back this week, they are still going to be without All-Pro Roquan Smith, both starting corners in Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey, two of their three starting defensive lineman in Broderick Washington Jr. and Nnamdi Madubuike, and 360-pound defensive lineman Travis Jones looks like he's trying to play through an injury as his play and snap count have completely fallen off. At least until the Ravens get Roquan Smith back, they're going to struggle against the run, as this is a team that is built around big defensive linemen who can keep their linebackers from shedding blocks, but fourth-round rookie Teddye Buchanan has struggled.
Green Bay vs Cincinnati
Josh Jacobs has struggled through the first four games of the season. The Packers have faced a difficult schedule, playing Cleveland, Detroit, and Washington in three of their four games. In Green Bay's most recent game against Dallas in a far from favorable matchup, Jacobs showed some improvement, but still failed to average over 4 yards per carry. The issue for Green Bay is along the offensive line, as they've been dealing with injuries and a rotating cast. Coming off the bye, they should get right tackle Zach Tom and left guard Aaron Banks back, but even then, this is an offensive line that projects to be the 26th offensive line this week. However, the benefit for Green Bay is that they'll be facing one of the league's worst interior defensive lines in Cincinnati, which should allow for some upside for Jacobs, who has largely been touchdown dependent from a fantasy perspective this season.
Cincinnati's run defense through the first five weeks reflects the entire team, which has been disappointing. Cincinnati has allowed 123 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is the third-most in the NFL this season, and they've allowed opposing teams to top 100 yards in four straight games. When building an NFL team, teams have to ultimately make sacrifices when it comes to the salary cap and ultimately pick an identity for the team. Given the Bengals thought they would have a high-powered offense with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, they invested heavily in pass rushers, thinking they could create positive game scripts and force teams to throw against their defense. With Burrow out, the Bengals have faced the most rushing attempts per game as teams try to take advantage of the weak interior of Cincinnati's defensive line. The 330-pound T.J. Slaton Jr. has struggled up the middle for Cincinnati, which has put a lot of pressure on the linebackers. Logan Wilson, who was excellent last year, has not had as great a start to the season as he is fifth in tackles on the team with just 33 on the year. Wilson is averaging just three solo tackles per game, compared to last year's average of five.
Las Vegas vs Tennessee
While Jeanty wasn't able to fully build on his Week 4 breakout performance, there were a lot of things to be encouraged about in his Week 5 outing against Indianapolis. Jeanty had 67 yards on 14 carries for 4.8 yards per carry, but the most encouraging thing about this stat line is that he did not have a carry longer than 12 yards. This is encouraging because the issue with Jeanty has been that he has taken too many hits behind the line of scrimmage, greatly limiting his output. Against Indianapolis, while he wasn't able to break a big play, he consistently gained yardage. This is more optimistic for the rest of the season if the trend continues, as it will increase his floor, instead of the 2 yards per carry we saw earlier this year. The schedule will get easier for the rookie, as he has already faced two of the better run defenses this season in Washington and New England. We should continue to see improvement here in Week 6.
The big question for Tennessee this week is whether a miraculous comeback will inspire them to turn the season around, or if we will see much of the same as we've seen through the first five weeks. While Tennessee won, it was more than Arizona fumbling the game away with some critical errors that the Titans were able to capitalize on. Tennessee has struggled against the run, as they're allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game and a staggering 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game, which leads the NFL. Over the last two weeks, this team has had the luxury of facing an Arizona team without James Conner and a Houston team, which has one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL, yet they still gave up over 100 yards to both teams. The loss of T'Vondre Sweat in Week 1 was critical, as the 370-pound defensive tackle is almost impossible to replace to be able to clog up the middle of the field. With an offense struggling to score points, this run defense will face game scripts featuring a high volume of runs, as they've encountered the fifth-most rushing attempts in the NFL this season.