Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell gave Arthur Smith the game of his dreams in Week 16. It was a dream for the managers who fired up either guy, too. I didn't have much of a choice. I had to lead with what we saw from Pittsburgh's backfield in Detroit.
This is the last time I'll bring you six weekly storylines that defined our fantasy fortunes. I'll save my nice little farewell address for the end. There's a chance it'll be heartfelt.
Until then, welcome to the final edition of Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. I was reminded, in crushing fashion, how differently things hit when everything's on the line. Ashton Jeanty brought me one of the worst beats of my fantasy career. It was a two-man job. Jeanty was sitting on my bench, while the red-hot TreVeyon Henderson took over in my flex. Talk about a tough pill to swallow. It was a stark reminder, in the worst way, of the brutality of injuries. You can feel great about a call. That doesn't mean the juxtaposition of a Henderson concussion with a career day for Jeanty, on your bench, against one of the NFL's best defenses, won't bring you back to earth. I'm going to get to Jeanty in a nightmare entry today. It's certainly possible he was a dream for you. I've said it since I started writing this weekly piece: every dream for someone is a nightmare for someone else. That's the beauty of this infuriating game we play.
What wasn't beautiful was watching Jeanty score his second touchdown of 50-plus yards. I have to imagine being punched in the face by D.K. Metcalf was a better alternative.
Steelers WR DK Metcalf had a history with the Lions fan he confronted Sunday — Metcalf reported the same fan to Seahawks security last season while playing for Seattle, sources say.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 22, 2025
The NFL is reviewing the incident for potential discipline.pic.twitter.com/ZYbAGdOWub
Enough about my pain. Let's run through the storylines that defined the semifinals. Here's to one last ride.
Fantasy Dream: Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell Go Wild
Running back usage in a Smith offense isn't supposed to lead to two RB1 finishes. It took a once-in-a-lifetime catch to end the half and some explosive runs, but Warren and Gainwell were the opposite of a headache. They were co-week winners.
The matchup against the Lions' run defense was once fade-worthy. Now, five running backs have finished as top-24 fantasy options over the last three weeks. Three of those backs, Kyren Williams, Warren, and Gainwell, finished in the top 12.
Warren and Gainwell in Week 16
| Metrics | Jaylen Warren | Kenneth Gainwell |
|---|---|---|
| Snap Share | 48.6% | 54.3% |
| Opportunties | 16 | 16 |
| Target Share | 4.9% | 17.1% |
| Expected Points Added/Rush | 0.57 | 0.11 |
| Expected Points Added/Target | -0.67 | 0.64 |
| Catch Rate Over Expected | 12.3% | 5.3% |
| Rushing Yards Over Expected/Attempt | 6.8 | 0.6 |
| Half-PPR Fantasy Points/Opportunity | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Half-PPR Fantasy Points | 28.1 | 21.3 |
The Steelers' offensive line created more space for Warren than he's seen at any point in his career. His 52 rushing yards before contact were the most he's logged in any game over four years. He also totaled 95 rushing yards over expected. For reference, Warren hadn't posted a positive rushing yards over expected total since his 25 against the Bengals in Week 11. In his 13 games leading up to Week 16, Warren totaled 61 rushing yards over expected. The margin for error was razor-thin, as Pittsburgh threw on 82.6 percent of its plays. That was the highest pass rate of the week.
In other words, he did things we have yet to see him do as an NFL running back against Detroit. The 4.9 percent target share was a prime indication that we could've been having a different conversation about this backfield had Warren not produced career-best metrics.
Gainwell, on the other hand, might be in for an even bigger bump with Metcalf now suspended for two games. Gainwell has now managed at least 15 percent of Pittsburgh's targets in five of the last six games, and at least 20 percent in three of those games. That usage has equated to 6.3 targets per game over that span, with 49.5 yards after the catch per game. His rushing efficiency creates a favorable outlook, with a high-enough floor to push for weekly RB1 consideration.
If you took a swing on Gainwell late in drafts, you're likely still playing. It's okay to feel like a savant after that one.
Fantasy Nightmare: The Bottom Falls Out for the Cardinals
I won't vent throughout the entirety of our last dance. I know I unpacked some pain in the intro. This is the last time I'm transparent about how bad things went for me in the semifinals, so bear with me.
I wanted nothing to do with Jacoby Brissett in Week 15 against the Texans. For a look at why, feel free to revisit this edition of Dreams and Nightmares from a couple of weeks ago. If you don't feel like looking back, here's the skinny -- Daniel Jones, Cameron Ward, Patrick Mahomes II, and Josh Allen combined to average 10.9 points against Houston in the four games leading up to the Brissett matchup.
Brissett threw for three touchdowns en route to 20.6 points. It was his eighth top-12 finish in nine starts this season. I didn't want to fade him against the Falcons. Not much has made sense for the Cardinals this year. It's clear, though, they've been forced to buck their run-heavy identity and embrace a high-volume passing approach. You can point to personnel or game scripts as the reason. Both variables have likely played a role.
In either case, the wheels fell off in Week 16, when my fantasy team and many others could least afford it.
Jacoby Brissett in Week 16 vs. Weeks 6-15
| Metric | Brissett vs. ATL (Week 16) | Brissett (Weeks 6-15 - 9 Games) |
|---|---|---|
| Team Pass Rate/Game | 58.9% | 68.5% |
| Dropbacks/Game | 33 | 48.4 |
| Expected Points Added/Dropback | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| Completions/Game | 16 | 28.4 |
| Completion Percentage Over Expected/Game | -4.6% | 4% |
| Air Yards Per Attempt/Game | 8.4 | 7.8 |
| Plays Run While Trailing/Game | 23 | 46 |
| Pressure Rate/Game | 33.3% | 40.1% |
| Fantasy Points/Game | 10.6 | 20.3 |
At the risk of oversimplifying the issue, the Cardinals were in a game. That was all it took for a fantasy wagon to catch fire. They threw almost 10 percent less than they had in any game Brissett has started this season. That equated to almost 12 fewer completions, on 15 fewer dropbacks. The disparity in plays run while trailing looms large. Atlanta's 4.7 yards per play were the eighth-fewest in Week 16, while its +0.02 expected points added per play was 13th-best. It was a methodical, efficient approach. That afforded the Cardinals time to maintain more balance than they have in weeks. It wasn't until Arizona was down by 10 with 12:28 remaining that we saw the fantasy-friendly version of Arizona be rolled out.
It was a brutal day for most startable Cardinals. Michael Wilson continued his run with a circus touchdown catch, but Trey McBride, Michael Carter, Marvin Harrison Jr., and, of course, Brissett had rough days. I wasn't lucky enough to survive the week. If you were, Cincinnati presents as good a bounce-back spot as you'll find in Week 17.
