A competent -- effective? -- game from Shedeur Sanders unlocked the elite upside of Harold Fannin Jr. It also happened in a matchup and under circumstances that made me nervous. That's why I wanted to lead with Fannin for Week 14. Fannin's performance is a storyline we should celebrate from a bittersweet Sunday for fantasy managers. Or lament, depending on which side you were on.
Welcome to the final regular-season edition of Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. All season, I've used this weekly piece as a place where we can come together and bond over our shared fantasy trials and triumphs. For some, the journey ended this week. I've been there, too. Sometimes, the defeats were so crushing, I'd have to go completely dark. No sports apps, no social media, no communication with my family.
Then, Wednesday would hit, and I'd come back around. If you're there, just know, tomorrow's going to feel a little easier.
For those of you still looking for some insights from Week 14, Fannin will get us started here shortly. First, there are some other storylines I want to touch on that didn't crack my six big-hitters. Omitting them completely didn't feel right. I'll talk about Sanders briefly when I get to Fannin Jr., but it was hard not to be impressed by the rookie. His -0.01 expected points added per dropback was the best mark he's posted to this point as a starter, despite also attempting 42 passes. It didn't translate to a win, but it was certainly a positive step. Tyler Shough slotted right behind Sanders in expected points added per dropback on the week. His rushing production was the catalyst for some unlikely production. He attempted 22 fewer passes than Sanders and was slightly less efficient. While Jaxson Dart and Cameron Ward seemingly have the luxury of a runway as franchise quarterbacks, Shough and Sanders are at least giving their respective organizations something to think about before investing in any replacement.
I also want to mention the personification of the unfair nature of fantasy football. I don't think many playoff hopeful teams were firing up Tony Pollard against one of the league's best run defenses. Those who did, though, are feeling like savants. Conventional wisdom would tell you that the league's sixth-worst qualified running back in terms of expected points added per attempt against the team allowing the second-fewest expected points added per attempt was an easy fade. Logic doesn't always win out here.
Tony Pollard 65-yard TOUCHDOWN.
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
TENvsCLE on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/UZ9c5ifvfN
Chase Brown, on the other hand, made sense against Buffalo. He scored twice. It's a balance.
I've talked about Michael Wilson before. At this point, Wilson's role on a brutal Cardinals team when Marvin Harrison Jr. is out of the lineup makes him a must-start commodity. When Harrison played against Tampa Bay, Wilson still saw seven targets. It didn't translate to production, but the involvement is notable. I don't think it's outlandish to say Wilson has a top-24 floor for the playoffs, with top-five positional upside if Harrison is inactive.
All right, let's run it. Here's Week 14's Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares.
Fantasy Dream: Harold Fannin Jr. Won't Stop
I try to be as transparent as possible in my analysis. I won't hide when I'm wrong. I'm going to do all I can to understand why I was. I think that's the best way to find success more consistently. I was wrong on Fannin this week.
I noticed Tennessee allowed 1.6 fewer points to tight ends than average, and had improved in recent weeks when it came to limiting yardage after the catch. I thought that could lead to an underwhelming week for Fannin, who was averaging 2.9 air yards per target in Sanders' first two starts.
Fannin instead solidified his standing as a set-and-forget TE1 with a massive showing against the Titans.
Harold Fannin Jr.'s Last Four Games
| Metric | Week 11 - BAL | Week 12 - LV | Week 13 - SF | Week 14 - TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snap Share | 72.2% | 89.6% | 91.7% | 92.2% |
| Target Rate | 19.2% | 30% | 19.2% | 26.2% |
| Expected Points Added Per Target | -0.36 | +0.16 | +0.19 | +0.52 |
| Yards Per Route Run | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Catch Rate Over Expected | -18.4% | +0.3% | -19.9% | +4.6% |
| Air Yards Per Target | 7.3 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 7.3 |
| Yards After Catch | 5 | 45 | 20 | 60 |
| Red Zone Targets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Half-PPR Points Per Route | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Half-PPR Points | 3.6 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 21.4 |
In Week 14, Fannin's regular usage translated to his most efficient game as a pro. With his team-high 26.2 percent share of Cleveland's targets, he averaged 3 yards per route run on 7.3 air yards per target. The uptick in air yards per target with Sanders at quarterback was encouraging, given his aforementioned number through Sanders' first two starts. He nearly matched his yards after catch total from the previous two games.
David Njoku was banged up on his touchdown reception in Week 14. Regardless of his status, though, Fannin's status as the Browns' focal point in the passing game feels more secure than it has all season. His ability after the catch has offset Cleveland's limited red zone opportunities. The team's 100 red zone plays are the sixth-fewest in the league this season. They've thrown at a 53 percent rate on those attempts; that's the league's 13th-highest red zone pass rate.
In Week 14, Fannin's volume melded with efficiency. That's an exciting proposition for his upside on playoff-bound rosters.
Fantasy Nightmare: The Commanders
This one isn't as much the fault of the team. Few have been as snakebitten by injury as Washington this season. Still, a shutout in Minnesota on fantasy's most consequential week won't do much to help spurned managers forgive.
We know Week 14 was brutal. Let's instead look at the Commanders on a macro scale. There are varying degrees of damage that an investment at cost did to fantasy rosters. Zach Ertz, who is done for the season, outperformed his ADP, as did offseason addition Deebo Samuel Sr.
Washington's Fantasy-Relevant Players
| Metric | Jayden Daniels | Deebo Samuel Sr. | Terry McLaurin | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Zach Ertz |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 7 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 13 |
| 2024 Half-PPR Fantasy Points/Game | 20.6 | 8.5 | 13.3 | Rookie | 8.3 |
| 2025 Half-PPR Fantasy Points/Game | 16 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 7.6 |
| Footballguys ADP | QB3 | WR37 | WR19 | RB38 | TE18 |
| Positional Ranking | QB29 | WR23 | WR75 | RB38 | TE12 |
Training camp darling Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the rare case in which the average draft position lined up exactly with his positional standing. That doesn't tell the full story, though. Since his 26-point day against the Chargers in Week 5, Croskey-Merritt hasn't cracked the top-35 running backs once. He's failed to surpass four points in each of his last four games. He's the RB61 in Half-PPR scoring since Week 6, averaging 3.5 points per game.
Relative to where the hype was following Brian Robinson Jr.'s release and his subsequent rushing touchdown against Cincinnati in the preseason, Croskey-Merritt has been a disappointment. That probably has more to do with the hype being unfair than anything he's done.
Samuel and Ertz, to their credit, returned value despite Daniels dealing with injuries and the 19th-ranked offense by expected points added per pass. Samuel's 338 yards after the catch are the 12th-most among receivers, while Ertz was relied on as more of a downfield target. His 8.7 air yards per target is his highest average since 2019. That helped offset his lowest targets per game average since his 5.56 in 2014.
Injuries are the story for Daniels and McLaurin. While the per-game metrics regressed for Daniels in his second season, equating that to anything other than the revolving nature of his status feels disingenuous. He still averaged 19.9 points per game before his first injury in Week 2. The rumblings about his durability, though, are getting louder.
If you avoided the Commanders' minefield, you dodged one of fantasy's more detrimental situations.
