Rostering Bryce Young continues to be an infuriating proposition. His best performances likely took place on your bench, while his frequent duds are capable of sinking a matchup. That alone is a fantasy nightmare. I need to give Young his flowers, though. He landed among my fantasy dreams from Week 13.
Welcome back to our weekly deep dive/therapy session. This is fantasy dreams and nightmares, my weekly look at the developments that made and broke our fantasy fortunes for the week. We're at the point now where some of these could dictate the direction of our season. The dreams become euphoric, the nightmares devastating.
That's why we play, right? That's what I keep telling myself.
If you're reading this as a manager locked into your league's tournament, remember you're just getting started. Making it is the easy part. The next few weeks are when legacies are forged. Those of you fighting for a spot, it's not over until it's over. If you're scoreboard watching, that's perfectly normal. I'm there, too. That's part of it. That's what makes those of you who are eliminated important, too. You're the agents of chaos. Don't check out. What you do next could create some havoc in the group chat. It might also keep the manager who has driven you crazy all season from sneaking in. That might not win you a title, but it's still sweet.
Week 14 is when tickets are punched, or the journey ends. If you've been playing for long enough, you've experienced both outcomes. The triumph is why we keep coming back.
As bad or as good as things get over the next few weeks, remember, the process starts over again in August.
Let's dive in.
The Thanksgiving/Black Friday Round-Up
I'm tweaking the formula a little this week. I hope that's cool with you. I'll assume it is. Given that eight teams had already played entering Sunday, our matchups may have already been settled by the time the entries in today's edition took effect. Instead of extracting a single dream or nightmare from four games, I figured I'd instead extract some of the most consequential pieces of information, with context, from the Thanksgiving and Black Friday slate.
For those of you who enjoy the deep dives, it's all good. I've still got some of those today, too. Here's what I pulled from Week 13's four-game appetizer.
Thanksgiving/Black Friday Dream-Worthy Data
- The Bears averaged six rushing yards per carry in Week 13. That was the second-highest figure of the week behind only Los Angeles. They were stuffed on only 6.4 percent of their rushing attempts and averaged 2.15 yards before contact per carry. Chicago is now third in rushing yards before contact per carry this season, at 1.88.
- With Amon-Ra St. Brown sidelined, Jameson Williams handled a 37 percent share of Detroit's targets. He forced four missed tackles and finished with 87 yards after the catch, 54 over expected. His five yards per route run on 8.1 air yards per target more closely resembled the efficiency before his Week 12 dud.
- Since making his season debut in Week 8, Christian Watson is the WR11 in Half-PPR, averaging 10.9 points per game. He's handled a target share north of 30 percent in each of the last two games, including 33.3 percent on Thanksgiving. 9 of his 10 targets in Week 13 came on attempts of 10 or more air yards.
Jordan Love's 51-yard TD pass to Christian Watson traveled 58.2 yards in the air, the longest TD pass of Love's career.#GBvsDET | #GoPackGopic.twitter.com/5z4I7xJMlV
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 27, 2025 - Patrick Mahomes II finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback for the fifth time this season. That's tied with Dak Prescott for the most.
- Speaking of Dak Prescott, he continues to feed George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. Lamb's 3.2 yards per route on a 23.1 percent target share pushed him to his third top-five positional finish of the season. Pickens was the WR20 with a 33.3 percent target share, his ninth finish among the top 24.
- Joe Burrow is back. In his first start since Week 2, Burrow finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. There was some rust; his -6.4 completion percentage over expected was 22nd among quarterbacks in Week 13. He still took a single sack on 13 pressures and finished 11th in expected points added per dropback with 0.07.
Thanksgiving/Black Friday Nightmare-Worthy Data
- Saquon Barkley's 2.7 rushing yards after contact per attempt is tied with Tyrone Tracy Jr. for the lowest total among running backs with at least 100 carries. He averaged 2.9 in Week 13. For reference, he averaged 3.4 YACo/att. last season.
- The Eagles are averaging 1.42 rushing yards before contact per carry through 12 games. They averaged 2.17 in 17 games last season. Watch as much or as little of the video below for examples.
40% of Saquan Barkley’s total carries into a 5 minute compilation.
— 🦅 8-4 (@PhillyNick100) November 25, 2025
A lot of blame being placed onto Barkley, and while I do think it’s fair to say he doesn’t look quite as good as last year, I think it’s a complete myth that he’s not seeing holes and dancing too much pic.twitter.com/dUaQhaNlNM - From Weeks 1-8, Dallas Goedert was the TE3 in Half-PPR points per game with 12.3. Since Week 9, he's the TE35 with 4.1 PPG. He played 88.2 percent of the snaps in Week 13 and 93.1 percent in Week 12. He logged target shares of 11.8 and 5.1 percent in those games, respectively.
- Zay Flowers and Devontez Walker combined for 169 incomplete air yards in Week 13. Lamar Jackson's -0.68 expected points added per dropback was the second-worst figure of the week, behind only Max Brosmer. Over his last three games, Jackson's averaging -0.43 expected points added per dropback.
- In Samaje Perine's return, Chase Brown played 58.8 percent of Cincinnati's snaps, his smallest share since Week 8. His third-down snap share dropped from 84.6 percent in Week 12 to 21.1 percent in Week 13. He still totaled 22 opportunities and 0.7 Half-PPR points per opportunity.
- Isiah Pacheco played 26.7 percent of the snaps in his return, equating to five opportunities. That's more than likely the product of a ramp-up. He's averaging 12 opportunities per game this season. His 0.6 Half-PPR points per opportunity are tied for 32nd among running backs who have played at least 250 snaps this season. Kareem Hunt is averaging 0.8 points per opportunity on a 48.2 percent snap share.
- Rome Odunze averaged 14.8 Half-PPR points per game from Weeks 1-6. He was the WR7 through six games. Since Week 7, he's the WR51, scoring 7.2 points per game. Despite six end zone targets since Week 9, he's caught one touchdown. He's also up to 357 incomplete air yards over that span.
Fantasy Dream: A Bryce Young Peak
If the Panthers got the Week 13 version of Young consistently, they're probably a nine-win team. The fact that they're 7-6 with losses to the Saints and Cardinals and wins over the Packers and Rams, encapsulates their mixed-bag nature. It all starts with the quarterback.
Comparing Bryce Young's Season and Week 13 Averages
| Metric | 2025 (12 Games) | Week 13 vs. Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Team Pass Rate | 53.8% | 35.5% |
| Yards/Game | 194.8 | 206 |
| Completion Percentage Over Expected | -1.3% | +8.2% |
| Expected Points Added/Dropback | -0.09 | +0.61 |
| Pressure Percentage | 37% | 29.2 |
| Sacks/Game | 1.8 | 2 |
| Touchdowns/Game | 1.5 | 3 |
| Interceptions/Game | 0.8 | 0 |
| Fantasy Points/Game | 13.1 | 22.5 |
The first noteworthy extraction is the Week 13 pass rate. Young only attempted 20 passes, tied with Justin Herbert for the fewest. The efficiency skyrocketed as a result. His +0.61 expected points added per dropback figure was the highest of the week. The accuracy looked significantly better, too. His completion to Jalen Coker on fourth down in the third quarter couldn't have been placed any better, in a situation where he couldn't miss.
His throw on the next fourth-down touchdown pass to Tetairoa McMillan may have been his best throw of the day. His recognition that the single-high safety wasn't in position to help on the deep crosser and subsequent decision to lead McMillan vertically, instead of toward the sideline, was big-time. You can't overlook his ability to then make the throw from the opposite hash, either. Credit to the offensive line for giving him time. Still, Young's potential flashes on this play.
Tmac and the T is for Touchdown
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) November 30, 2025
Tetairoa McMillan x #ProBowlVote
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/fN5tchb342
The difficulty with analyzing Young is forecasting the next big performance. After the Week 13 showing, he's now finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback twice in the last three weeks. He followed his 29.8 fantasy points on 50 dropbacks in Week 11 against the Falcons with 8.3 on 34 dropbacks in San Francisco in Week 12. The glaring difference is the nature of the production. The Panthers threw at a 66.7 percent clip in Week 11. Young finished with 448 yards and three touchdowns.
The low-volume, high-efficiency approach to the passing game we saw in Week 13 seems to be a clearer path to a more consistently productive version of Young. The emergence of a true one-two punch out of the backfield with Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle helps if the offensive staff continues to lean on a run-heavy approach.