The Brian Thomas Jr. Panic Meter: The Gut Check No. 658

Brian Thomas Jr. is off to a slow start and has earned criticism for his play. Should we panic? Matt Waldman investigates.

Matt Waldman's The Brian Thomas Jr. Panic Meter: The Gut Check No. 658 Matt Waldman Published 09/17/2025

© Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Brian Thomas

Brian Thomas Jr.: Things You Can't Unsee? 

Brian Thomas Jr. went from a surefire top-15 draft pick in August to one of fantasy football's biggest lightning rods in September. As an industry, we tell you not to panic after Week 1, but it sure feels like a lot of folks are looking for the Pampers after Thomas' two weeks of lackluster performances. 

Considering that you can probably search Brian Thomas Jr. + Alligator Arms in the Google Box and find two targets against the Bengals, that alone will quell enthusiasm faster than taking an ice bath with Zak Galifianakis -- or Cecil Lammey in a Jaguar-print speedo. 

That cleared the pool at the Footballguys Vegas retreat. At this moment, many fantasy GMs are reacting to Thomas' performance as if they had just seen Lammey in a speedo.  

What should you do about Brian Thomas Jr.? That's what we're going to figure out in this week's Gut Check. 

Brian Thomas Jr.'s Film

I created 20 clips from 2023 to 2025 for you to see. Most of them are from the 12-target disaster of Week 2's Bengals game. The rest are contested targets from last year and two seasons at LSU. We'll look at most of them.

After this game, Brian Thomas Jr. told the media that he had a wrist injury going into this game. Trevor Lawrence told the media that he and Thomas both had moments that they - individually - would like to have back.

Lawrence also shared that he and Thomas are still developing their connection in this new Liam Coen offense.  Coen has told the media that he expects to funnel this passing offense through Brian Thomas Jr. 

I watched a lot more than these 20 clips, so my conclusions are based on more information than what I'm sharing here. These are short clips with no audio commentary. I'm adding my thoughts below each clip. 

After I share each clip and my corresponding thoughts, I'll provide an overall analysis of what I saw -- including questions that the film didn't answer. 

If Thomas had a wrist injury entering this game, this attack shows that the injury isn't bothering him to begin this game. What we don't know is the severity of the injury and how the injury potentially impacted his performance. We also don't know if Thomas took a pain-killing injection early in the game, and it wore off at some point. 

What we can see is that Brian Thomas Jr. extended for the target with traffic behind him and made the play against contact with good technique. 

Target No. 2 is an important play to remember as we delve further into this Bengals game. Thomas runs a route settling under the zone, and Trevor Lawrence leads him inside. 

Thomas makes the catch while working toward an oncoming defender. We have no evidence of alligator arms here.

Based on what I've seen of Brian Thomas Jr., the presence of a defender in the periphery of his vision doesn't distract him when he's moving toward that defender at a slow or moderate pace. 

Target No. 3 is the first display of alligator arms in this game. Lawrence leads Thomas into the path of two oncoming defenders on this in-breaking route.

Thomas slows the pace of his break as he spots the underneath defender breaking from the opposite direction. He comes to a stop and extends one arm when the defender over the top from the opposite direction comes into view.

It's a fact that Brian Thomas Jr. alligator-armed the target. What's subjective -- and likely polarizing -- is whether you think it was justifiable. 

Trevor Lawrence displayed poor placement when there was a lot of room to place this target on Thomas's frame or behind his break path so Thomas could make a back-shoulder adjustment and protect himself. Ask Chris Olave about his concussion history with Derek Carr because of poorly placed throws? 

Is it worthwhile for a receiver to make those catches and miss the time that he does because of them? The answer may depend on the gravity of the play. Will it win the game, a playoff spot, the division, or the conference championship? 

Coaches preach consistent effort, and many of them claim you can't turn that effort on and off like a light switch. According to them, you must be a thermostat that sets the tone. 

Tell that to Nkamukong Suh. I listened to him recently on a podcast where he turned that point on its ear. 

Suh understood the context of the message but said that if he hadn't turned off the effort in practice, he would have disrupted the offense's goal, which would have been detrimental to the team. One can argue that selling out for a target in the first half of a Week 2 game at the risk of season-ending injury isn't wise for the team, either.  

I've been watching pro football for 52 years, watching it with at least half a clue for 40 of them, and studying football with a formal process for over 20. I've seen Hall of Fame receivers alligator arm targets similar to the one we just saw from Brian Thomas Jr.

The more valuable question is whether there's a pattern of behavior that Thomas displays with targets breaking over the middle that could hurt his overall game and limit what Liam Coen wants to do with him in this offense.

Let's continue watching.

Target No. 4 is an underthrown fade from Trevor Lawrence while working off-script. This is likely one of the plays that Lawrence wanted a do-over. 

It's difficult to high-point a ball while behind the defender on an underthrown target. There was room to lead Thomas for a much better target. 

My only criticism of Brian Thomas Jr. on this play is that he could have attacked with an overhand position. Using an underhand position limits how much you can adjust to the ball and protect it after the catch. 

We're skipping Target No. 5 because it's an underthrown crossing route. Target No. 6 is as important as Target No. 2: Brian Thomas Jr. runs the over route, and Lawrence leads him into the cornerback peeling off his assignment. 

Thomas has two steps after the catch before the defender hits him head-on. Thomas likely sees this defender in the periphery as he high-points this ball, and he has no problem making the play.  

If you're a pro-Thomas advocate who justifies him for alligator-arming the target lead into two defenders, targets No. 2 and No. 6 provide evidence that when Thomas has a reasonable amount of space to protect himself, he'll take the impending contact and make the catch.

If you believe Thomas should have sold out for the target he alligator-armed, there are a few arguments that will likely sway you to believe otherwise. 

Target No. 7 is a catch versus contact, but not a reception. The Bengals defender pushes Brian Thomas Jr. out of bounds while airborne. 

Again, Thomas attacks the ball with an underhand position on a target where he would have had more control to earn the ball and position inbounds if he used an overhand attack. He could have extended a foot earlier to the ball, and this would have created a chain of events that might have made a difference: 

  • An overhand attack would have allowed Brian Thomas Jr. to extend a foot earlier. 
  • He would have caught the ball earlier. 
  • He could have then turned his frame earlier. 
  • He might have gotten those few inches back to tap inbounds. 

Thomas is a good young receiver, but not an elite receiver. It's these details that often make the difference that the spreadsheet or box score can't show.

Target No. 8 is the other one Brian Thomas Jr. alligator-armed. You'll see Thomas is running a crosser, and Lawrence leads him into the cornerback peeling off his assignment. Thomas is running at full speed until he suddenly spots the flash of the cornerback in his line of sight, and his reaction is instinctive self-care. 

To me, there are two clear patterns to distinguish from the targets we've seen in this game: 

  1. Brian Thomas Jr. wins targets against oncoming contact if he has room to catch the ball before he's hit. 
  2. Brian Thomas Jr. protects himself when the oncoming contact flashes suddenly and late in a break he's making at full speed, or the defenders are coming at full speed. 

Both throws that Thomas protected himself against were possibly, not probably, catchable, but the possibility was low.  Lawrence displayed poor placement with the first alligator-armed target.

As for this one, the target was on Thomas' jersey in an attempt to give him room to protect himself in a compressed area of the field. Lawrence didn't have any reason to anticipate this cornerback peeling off to get into the play. At the same time, Lawrence placed the ball in a way to account for the compressed nature of the red zone.

I would advocate for Thomas on the first target, which was a clear hospital ball, but this one is on Brian Thomas Jr. Maybe the wrist factored into his reaction. Still, we'll look at targets in games where the wrist can't be a convenient excuse to see if there's a pattern of behavior.  

Target No. 9 is a fade route that Lawrence places to the back shoulder, but Thomas isn't expecting it there. 

While I would side with Lawrence's placement based on the position of the defender, we don't really know without speaking with the Jaguars involved with the play and the offense. I'm showing this because it's another piece of evidence that Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. are still adjusting to the Coen offense.  

So far, two targets in this game could have resulted in big chunks of yardage and at least one touchdown if they were on the same page. The panic meter on Brian Thomas Jr. would not be as alarming for the fantasy public if the box score had another 2 catches for 80-120 yards and a touchdown. 

Many of the panickers would have shrugged off some of the plays they were calling into question. Keep that in mind. 

Target No. 10 is a slant with Thomas breaking at full speed and the ball being placed between two defenders -- one defender has an angle to make contact if the placement isn't good. That defender is easily in Brian Thomas Jr.'s line of sight as he makes his break to attack the ball. 

There are three targets where Thomas wins against oncoming defenders in his sightline and two he has alligator-armed the ball. The two plays where he shied away from the targets were plays I would characterize as understandable -- even if there is a history of receivers who have attacked targets like these. However, I would argue that many of them didn't see the oncoming defender until they caught the ball. 

Target No.11 is an inaccurate pass, so we'll skip that one. Target No. 12 is not an alligator-arm situation. There's no shying away from contact here, but I'd bet there are some people who will interpret it as such. 

This is simply a focus drop. Brian Thomas Jr. is trying to turn downhill and run before he secures the ball. This is a common type of drop in the red zone on targets like this one.

His body language is not shrinking away from the ball like the two alligator-arm targets. He simply turns to run before he secures it. 

Let's examine some of Brian Thomas Jr.'s contested catches from last year that share similar dynamics with the Bengals' game. Target No. 13 is not a reception because the Lions knock him out of bounds, but it is a catch.

It's also a catch with a safety traveling across the field into his line of sight as he's leaping for the ball. No problem there. 

Target No. 14 is a catch with a defender's arm in front of his face as he tracks the ball over his shoulder. 

I think it's safe to say Thomas is good at catching vertical targets with his back to the quarterback. 

Target No. 15 is a drop. Brian Thomas Jr. initially catches the ball with an underneath defender in his face as he extends for the target, but the defender rips it loose. 

Again, there's no problem with him shying away from the contact here.  

Target No.16 is a drop after contact. The trailing defender, plastered to Brian Thomas Jr., rips the ball loose after the initial catch. An oncoming defender is breaking into the area as Thomas makes the catch. That flat defender does not faze Thomas. 

Target No. 17 is a dig with the safety in Brian Thomas Jr.'s line of sight and break path. Thomas makes the catch on a well-placed target that gives Thomas a chance to protect himself. 

Target No. 18 is a contested play of an underthrown vertical route against the Chiefs.

Most of Thomas' targets last year were boundary plays or targets over the middle without a looming defender. The same was true with his college tape. 

Target No. 19 is a slant that Jayden Daniels throws high and behind the target. It forces Brian Thomas Jr. to turn toward the trailing defender to earn the ball. 

Mission accomplished. 

The final target is a curl in the middle of a triangle of zone defenders. Brian Thomas Jr. has to see the flat defender when he is at the top of his stem. He has no worries about high-pointing this ball and taking the impending hit. 

Brian Thomas Jr. Analysis

Brian Thomas Jr. has primarily been utilized as an outside threat at the boundary at LSU and last year with the Jaguars. In this capacity,  Thomas has shown starter-level skill as a big-play option who can also run routes breaking back to the quarterback. 

When asked to deliver on quick-breaking routes inside or in-cuts in wide-open zones, Thomas has also been productive. Even when there's impending contact from a defender in his break path, Thomas will earn the ball when he has reasonable time to protect himself. 

Compressed areas where defenders pop up quickly within his sightline, with a potential for violent collisions, are where Brian Thomas Jr. shies away from the ball. Although there are storied examples of tough guys who didn't shy away from these situations often, even they have examples where they have broken character. 

Thomas alligator-armed two targets. One, in my opinion, only the Anquan Boldins, Larry Fitzgeralds, and Steve Smiths of the NFL (not many) might have earned. The other was on Thomas. 

From my standpoint, here's the tally: 

  • One alligator-armed target he could have caught in the end zone. 
  • One caught ball where he was pushed past the end line. 
  • An underthrown sideline fade that could have led him downfield for a TD.
  • A fade where Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. weren't on the same page with the placement.

If Thomas caught two of these four targets, the panic wouldn't exist. There'd be minor concerns, at best. 

Advice on Brian Thomas Jr. for 2025

Don't trade him. Thomas will continue earning a strong volume of targets. He caught three targets where he was led into an oncoming defender and did just fine. 

Trevor Lawrence acknowledged that the duo is still acclimating to the offense. They'll be fine. 

If you can buy into Thomas -- as long as the wrist injury isn't a significant issue -- I'd do it. If you're the cautious type, consider waiting another week, hoping for a mediocre stat line, and then making the offer if we hear no more about the wrist.

Bottom Line: Panic over Brian Thomas Jr. is likely unjustified. 

Until next week, good luck!

Follow Matt Waldman on Twitter: @mattwaldman

YouTube Channel: RSP Film Room

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a PRO subscription.

Join Now
Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Brian Thomas Jr. Matt Waldman the gut check fantasy football week 3 20205 NFL Jacksonville Jaguars Wide Receivers WR
Share This Article

More by Matt Waldman

 

The Top 10: Week 3

Matt Waldman

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

09/16/25 Read More
 

The Replacements: Week 2

Matt Waldman

The weekly list of preemptive additions before their fantasy emergence and candidates who could contribute due to unexpected late-week events.

09/12/25 Read More
 

Roundtable: Horrifying and Thrilling Week 1 Performers

Matt Waldman

The Footballguys roundtable discusses Week 1 performances that thrilled and horrified us.

09/11/25 Read More
 

Roundtable: Undrafted and Late-Round Week 1 Performers

Matt Waldman

The Footballguys roundtable discusses which undrafted and late-round Week 1 performers will emerge as weekly values.

09/11/25 Read More
 

Roundtable: Rookie RB ADP vs. Reality

Matt Waldman

The Footballguys roundtable discusses eight rookie RBs and how their August ADPs will compare to their in-season realities.

09/11/25 Read More
 

Roundtable: Jacksonville Jaguars Backfield

Matt Waldman

The Footballguys roundtable discusses their assessment of the future of the Jaguars' backfield.

09/11/25 Read More