Makai Lemon: There's A Lot to Like, If You Look Beyond Pageantry
NFL Draft season -- and arguably the NFL Draft itself -- is a football beauty pageant that becomes hyper-focused on factors that aren't as important as the public, analysts, and teams make them. Some of you will argue that draft capital plays out and is an indicator of talent.
Draft capital is a rigged game. Although considered a top, if not the top, wide receiver prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft, Makai Lemon does not fit the classic archetype of the NFL Draft season's beauty pageant contestant.
Public appreciation is fickle, especially in the soap opera of the draft. What looks like love now could turn sour for a variety of reasons -- often the dumbest ones.
A 5'11, 195-pound wide receiver at USC, Makai Lemon is not a George Pickens-like swan. If he doesn't run to the standard of a classic split-end or big-play flanker, his value could drop 1-2 rounds by mid-February.
Draft capital isn't a measure of talent -- more on that in a moment -- but it is an indicator of a player's early opportunities, the early labeling from coaches and executives, and a financially biased system.
Early-round players earned the biggest contracts. The finances lead to executives expecting coaches to use these players early. It means these players get the most first- and second-team reps during the spring and summer, and their failure to develop is also considered a failure of the coaching staff.
This has nothing to do with Makai Lemon's talent or any other receiver, for that matter. Amon-Ra St. Brown was a fourth-round pick in 2021 -- the 17th receiver taken off the board.
Ja'Marr Chase was the first WR, followed by Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. While we can argue the merits of St. Brown versus Waddle and Smith, we can at least agree St. Brown has delivered in their tier -- and then some. In hindsight, St. Brown probably belongs in a tier by himself between Chase and the other two.
I picked St. Brown because he's my early comparison stylistically for Makai Lemon. If Lemon doesn't deliver the goods in the 40-Yard-Dash, the NFL Combine's version of the swimsuit competition, he could feel St. Brown's pain on draft day when players like Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Dee Eskridge, Tutu Atwell, Terrace Marshall Jr, Joshua Palmer, Dyami Brown, Amari Rodgers, Anthony Schwartz, and Dez Fitzpatrick get called before you.
Nico Collins had a similar experience in the same draft, but he went a round earlier and two receivers ahead of St. Brown. Collins had the size, but he didn't run at the NFL Combine, which made his 4.45-second 40-Yard Dash at his Pro Day suspect for scouts due to the variables of different environments.
Makai Lemon could see his profile go through this ridiculous pageantry and come out the other side as a second- or, as much as I doubt it, an early third-day pick. If he does, this scouting report will cut through the narratives of the loudest mouths with the biggest platforms and limited context.
Draft Capital IS NOT An Indicator of Talent
This rant may matter for Makai Lemon if he slips in 2026 like St. Brown.
Draft capital is an indicator of who will get the most opportunities in a system rigged to give early-round players more opportunities to fail and ultimately succeed from mistakes. There are rarely real competitions in training camp.
Coaches often need permission from the front office to allow late-round or undrafted players enough reps to truly compete for a contributing or starting role.
These late-round players have to do more with fewer reps to make an impression. When they make mistakes, the latent bias of their late-round status is a bigger barrier to overcome.
Nothing about draft capital is truly an indicator of talent -- it just mimics our idea that it does if we don't examine the context of underlying factors that grease the skids for early-round talent. Most fantasy analysts who believe this live in a fantasy world, and the bubble isn't about to burst.
Even after St. Brown delivered 90 catches, 912 yards, and 5 scores, it was doubtful most imagined three of his next four seasons would produce 115-catch, 1,200-plus-yards, and 10-plus-TDs. If 2025 continues as it's going, it will be a reality.
St. Brown is the leader of the 2021 receiver class in career receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He's not the biggest, fastest, quickest, or most mobile mover, either. Neither is Makai Lemon.
There are already questions about Makai Lemon's hip mobility and whether it will limit his route tree. We'll get to that in more detail, but the best answer is that good scouting is about finding out what a player can do and whether those things match what a team wants from a player.
Makai Lemon has enough things he can do -- and do as well or better than most in this class or any other class -- to become an NFL starter, if not the leading contributor in an NFL passing game.