First, let's talk about average draft position (ADP).

ADP shows where players are typically being selected across many fantasy drafts, giving you a sense of the consensus value for each player. Our Consensus ADP takes this a step further. We combine the ADPs of several sites into one. We also only allow sites with quality ADP to be factored into the overall ranking.

RELATED: See 3 Underrated Quarterbacks here
RELATED: See 4 Sleeper Quarterbacks here

We asked our staff to compare quarterback ADP with our projections to identify quarterbacks available in the top half of your draft who should underperform their draft position.

Four overrated quarterbacks quickly gathered interest. See what our staff has to say about each player.

Overrated QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

• Current ADP: QB21
• FBG Projections: QB27

Jason Wood: I generally subscribe to the view that every NFL player carries significant injury risk, so I'd rather target those whose ADPs already discount that downside than chase "iron men".

However, Tua Tagovailoa is the rare exception. His history of head trauma is well documented, and after his last concussion, many speculated his career was over. That proved false, but another similar incident could sideline him for an indefinite period.

On top of that, Miami's current vibe is unsettling: an aging superstar who may want out, a productive tight end rumored to be on the block, and a WR2 who can't stay healthy or meet expectations. The combined volatility makes Tagovailoa a pass at his current price.

Ben Cummins: There is a plethora of quarterback options available this season, making it hard to lean into a player in Tua Tagovailoa with a concussion history. Is the added risk of Tagovailoa missing time with another head injury worth the risk?

He hasn't rushed for a touchdown in three seasons and has run for just 193 yards over his past 41 games. That's 4.7 rushing yards per game over that span. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa ranked 44th out of 44 (In other words: dead last) qualifying quarterbacks in average depth of target (6.1) last season. Miami's offense was broken last year, and now Tyreek Hill is 31 years old after showing decline a season ago.

So, to summarize: Tagovailoa doesn't offer rushing upside in an NFL where almost all quarterbacks do, his offense struggled so much in 2024 that he threw the shortest passes in the league, and there is added risk of games missed.

Being risk-averse is not always a winning strategy in fantasy football, but in this instance, it's the right move. If drafting a quarterback in this ADP range, grab Michael Penix Jr., Bryce Young, and/or Matthew Stafford instead.

Gary Davenport: It's not difficult to see the allure with Tagovailoa. The flashes of elite talent. The wideouts at his disposal in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

It's the reason why Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier hope against hope they will still have a job a year from now. The reason why those same gentlemen gave the 27-year-old $53 million a season a little while back (Um…Oops?). But that's wishful thinking—as is trusting Tagovailoa as even a fantasy backup. It goes well past the 55-foot-tall neon-red “NO!” sign that is his injury history.

Tagovailoa has one season in five years in which he passed for more than 3,600 yards. Even with that high-end duo of wideouts, Tagovailoa has never thrown 30 touchdown passes in a season. And perhaps most importantly, Tagovailoa's air yards per attempt have fallen off significantly since he threw for 4,624 yards in 2023.

Opposing defenses just aren't letting Hill and Waddle get past them like they did back in the day. And as bad as that is for those pass-catchers, it's infinitely worse for the fantasy prospects of a quarterback who is going to miss games at some point.

Maurile Tremblay: Tua Tagovailoa's efficiency is tempting, but too many red flags make him a poor fantasy investment in 2025. A third documented concussion in Week 2 of 2024 sidelined him for four games, and a hip injury cost him the final two, so he managed only 11 starts.

Each added brain injury amplifies recurrence risk, and Miami has already hoarded insurance by signing Zach Wilson and two rookies. Protection also worsened when five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead retired, leaving second-year Patrick Paul on the blind side.

Even at full health, Tagovailoa supplies almost no rushing floor (just 49 yards and zero touchdowns last season), so virtually all of his fantasy production must come through the air. That air game is less secure now that Tyreek Hill is 30, rehabbing from two wrist surgeries, and dealing with off-field turmoil.

Offensive coordinator Frank Smith admits the offense is "starting over," emphasizing size and balance after a late-season collapse—coachspeak for more ground game, fewer deep shots.

A quarterback who regularly misses games, lacks rushing upside, may lose elite protection, and could open the year without his game-breaking receiver is simply too fragile a portfolio item.