Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.
The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are simply more fun to root for. All else being equal, I'll try to focus on prime-time games and the most entertaining spots on the schedule. However, I won't force plays just to have action on every night game.
How It Works
Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.
Payouts
Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:
- Two picks: 3x your entry
- Three picks: 6x your entry
- Four picks: 10x your entry
- Five picks: 20x your entry
Tracking Last Week
I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
Last Week: (5-5), -$94
We started with a frustrating Week 1, coming up just short on a number of picks.
Jerry Jeudy hit his receptions over, but Chase Brown came up shy of 3.5 catches.
Went 2-for-3 on the Patriots-Raiders game with Jakobi Meyers easily hitting over 4.5 catches and Rhamondere Stevenson going way lower on his 57.5 yardage prop (27 yards). However, TreVeyon Henderson came up shy of his 64.5 total yardage prop, primarily due to averaging just 4.0 yards per catch on his six receptions.
Also went 2-for-3 in the Broncos-Titans game. RJ Harvey topped 35.5 receiving yards, and Elic Ayomanor had more than 1.5 catches, while Chig Okonkwo had just 19 receiving yards (needed 30).
Lastly, went 0-for-2 in the Monday night game with T.J. Hockenson catching just three passes (needed more than 4.5) and D'Andre Swift managing just 12 receiving yards (needed more than 14.5).
This Week's Plays
Pick 1
- He had 51 total yards on 11 touches despite playing just 35% of the snaps in Week 1.
- His snap share should increase since he is the most talented weapon on this offense.
- The backfield is likely to move to at least a 50-50 split soon, as he was more impactful than Stevenson and graded better in all categories according to ProFootballFocus.
- He was targeted on 33% of his routes, which is elite usage for a running back.
- The Dolphins allowed 139 total yards to Colts running backs last week.
- Over his last four games, he has 343 receiving yards, an average of 85.8 per game.
- Dolphins cornerbacks Jack Jones and Rasul Douglas struggled in Week 1, both earning coverage grades in the 40s.
- His teammates are buzzing about him, with Demario Douglas saying, "Just his mindset, it switched on, and he's unstoppable. He's been balling since camp."
Pretty impressed with Kayshon Boutte after week 1.
— Alfredo Brown (@AlfredoABrown) September 8, 2025
He won in a lot of different ways. He's got the timing down with Drake Maye.
At least 7 targets and 90 yards in 3 of his last 4 games. pic.twitter.com/GykkIXVtCe
- He caught four of five targets for 30 yards in Week 1, ranking second on the team behind Tyreek Hill.
- He will remain a significant piece of the Dolphins' passing game, though the question is how much volume he will see.
- Tua Tagovailoa should throw for far more than the 114 yards he posted in Week 1.
- In last year's matchup against the Patriots, Tagovailoa threw for 317 yards, and Waddle led the way with eight catches for 144 yards and a touchdown.
- Waddle has faced the Patriots six times in his career and has had at least 46 receiving yards in every single one of those games.