Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.
The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are more fun to root for.
How It Works
Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.
Tracking Last Week
I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
- Last Week (2-3), + $20
- Season (39-38), - $174
None of the receiving overs in the Jacksonville-Indianapolis game hit, but that was a correlation play based on the possibility that we got a pass-heavy shootout. So, not necessarily discouraging that they all went in the same direction. We did hit our 3X on receiving overs for Mike Gesicki and Trey McBride, to salvage a winning week.
Week 18 Prop #1
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Purdy is finally healthy and has been playing as well as any quarterback in the league in recent weeks. Over his last three games, he has completed 74.2% of his passes for 893 yards and 11 touchdowns.
The @49ers are leading the league in PPG (35.7) since Brock Purdy's return 🔥#FTTB pic.twitter.com/uA9BlWkzZv
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) December 31, 2025
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He has thrown for at least 295 yards in three straight games and put up 277 yards against Seattle in the Week 1 win.
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Since Purdy’s return, this column has targeted 49ers game overs. The market has not fully adjusted to how battered the San Francisco defense is and how aggressive and effective the offensive game plan has become, with the clear intent to outscore opponents in shootouts.
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In the Week 1 matchup against San Francisco, Smith-Njigba accounted for 124 of Seattle’s 150 receiving yards.
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He has posted at least 103 receiving yards in 9 of 16 games this season.
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The 49ers are unlikely to have their top cornerback shadow him, and San Francisco has already shown they can win even when Smith-Njigba puts up big numbers. San Francisco's defense is generally vulnerable and has allowed 29.7 PPG since its Week 14 bye.
I asked Robert Saleh if he’ll let Deommodore Lenoir shadow Jaxon-Smith Njigba. Saleh’s answer was fascinating and educational. pic.twitter.com/yDRCKx38IA
— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) December 31, 2025
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Despite being the focal point of opposing defenses and seeing heavy volume, Smith-Njigba has remained extremely efficient, averaging 11.0 yards per target on the season.
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Pearsall had 108 receiving yards in the Week 1 matchup against Seattle.
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When healthy, he has consistently produced. He averaged 93.7 receiving yards per game over the first three weeks before suffering a Week 4 injury. After returning in Week 11 and playing through lingering issues, he has looked much healthier since the Week 14 bye with games of 96 and 85 yards.
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He is averaging 9.9 yards per target on the season and has seen 15 targets over the past two weeks, emerging as a trusted option in San Francisco’s red-hot passing attack.
#SF Receiving Recap vs. CHI
— SFdata9ers🏈📊 (@sfdata9ers) December 29, 2025
Impressive numbers over the board for #SF's pass catchers. Ricky Pearsall led the #49ers with 9 expected points added on 8 targets.
Jauan Jennings with 7 INTs on the season as targeted receiver. pic.twitter.com/KX9yPadsl4
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When close to full health, like he was last week, Pearsall consistently creates separation and looks like a high-end route runner.
Ricky Pearsall creating just a liiiittle bit of separation against Nahshon Wright here pic.twitter.com/ViPJmyPMAv
— Jake Hutchinson (@hutchdiesel) December 29, 2025