RELATED: See 4 ADP Steals at RB
In fantasy football, having productive running backs is crucial to success. It's often the most difficult position to project due to workload splits, vultured touchdowns, and frequent injuries. Because of that, drafting a running back in the early rounds who doesn't live up to ADP expectations can set a fantasy football team way back right out of the gate in Week 1. Here are a few best ball traps to avoid at the running back position for the 2026 season.
Christian McCaffrey (Underdog ADP: RB4, 7.3 overall)
Christian McCaffrey has been nothing short of phenomenal. Even having languished on a mediocre Carolina team for years, he was a fantasy superstar. Then, after joining Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, he's been nothing short of spectacular. And after an injury-riddled 2024 campaign, McCaffrey bounced back in a big way last season with over 2,100 yards from scrimmage and 17 total touchdowns.
All that being said, color me skeptical of a soon-to-be 30-year-old running back coming off a career-high season of 413 total touches. Now, a heavy workload for a running back in one season doesn't necessarily significantly increase the risk of injury the following year. A much more adept mind than mine at evaluating the physical aspect of fantasy, Footballyguys' own Adam Hutchinson, already debunked this myth last year.
However, Adam does posit that heavy usage increases injury risk with a minor four percent decrease in availability, but the drop-off in durability is subtle. On top of this slightly elevated risk due to 2025 workload, McCaffrey has had multiple soft tissue injuries in the past, plus the Achilles tendinitis in 2024. So, given McCaffrey's age, high number of touches last year, and prior injury history, I'm not sure his current ADP in the middle of the first round properly accounts for his injury risk.
Beyond the injury risk, there are questions about whether McCaffrey can replicate his 2025 fantasy output in 2026. With Brandon Aiyuk inactive all year and Ricky Pearsall hurt for much of the season, McCaffrey became the focal point of the offense even more so than before.
The resulting volume of touches led to an elite 22.3 0.5 PPR points per game (PPG) average, which led all non-quarterbacks. Yet, in spite of elite fantasy output, McCaffrey ranked just 13th in yards per touch and 31st in yards created per touch, a far cry from his last fully healthy season in 2023 (3rd in yards per touch and 13th in yards created per touch).
Can McCaffrey's efficiency increase with a hopefully healthy Pearsall and the addition of Mike Evans? Perhaps, but that's a risky bet considering his age. Ultimately, he's not guaranteed to be one of the worst best ball traps this year, but McCaffrey's ADP is just a tad too high. I'd rank McCaffrey near the end of the first round heading into 2026. Players I prefer over him include CeeDee Lamb and Ashton Jeanty, who I listed among my best-ball steals for the coming season.
