All Roads Lead to Rome Odunze in 2026

Best Ball Drafters are Backing the Wrong Bears Receiver

It's only May, but we're seeing a massive mistake in early offseason best ball drafts: fantasy managers are erroneously drafting Luther Burden III (WR21) a full round ahead of Rome Odunze (WR28).

Odunze is being drafted at his absolute floor, while Burden is being priced at his ceiling.

Last season, Odunze was the WR10 in points per game before a midseason foot injury cratered his efficiency. Now, the market is overcorrecting for Burden's late-season volume and Loveland's playoff heroics. If you want to win your league, you need to ignore the recency bias and scoop up as many shares of Odunze as possible before his ADP reflects his true WR1 status.

Time is a Flat Circle

Odunze burst out of the gate red hot last year and was the WR3 in 0.5 PPR through Week 4. He hauled in five touchdowns in the first four games and seemed poised for a massive sophomore breakout. Heading into their Week 5 bye, Odunze was on pace for a ridiculous 85-1,258-21 season.

Yahoo's Matt Harmon noted that through three games last year, Odunze and Ricky Pearsall (who I also like), were the only two sophomore wide receivers who had gained a first down on over 10% of their routes. Both also ranked in the top 13 among all wide receivers in first downs per route run (1DPRR) after Week 3.

In fact, Harmon even hailed Odunze as "the breakout wide receiver of the 2025 NFL season". The sky was the limit for Odunze with Williams in Johnson's offense, and no one was arguing otherwise.

Of course, hindsight is 20/20, and Odunze's production cratered just a few short weeks later. But what exactly happened, and why?

Had Us In the First Half, Not Gonna Lie

Odunze was the clear focal point of Chicago's offense early on last season. As mentioned above, he found the end zone an astounding five times in the first four games. On top of that, Odunze was averaging a healthy 68 receiving yards on 8.0 targets per game and a strong 2.21 yards per route run (YPRR) from Weeks 1 through 8.

Sadly, after the bye, he scored just one touchdown over the rest of the season in eight games. And from Weeks 9 through 13, before the Bears shut him down for the remainder of the regular season, Odunze's usage and efficiency both imploded. In those five games, he averaged just 38 receiving yards on 6.8 targets per game with a horrendous 1.18 YPRR over that span.

Why the emphasis on this split? Well, we now know that Odunze played through a stress fracture in his foot for much of last year.

Although he didn't technically miss a game until Week 14, Odunze first appeared on the injury report in practice just before their Week 9 game at Cincinnati. Looking back, his mysterious zero-catch, zero-yardage game against the Bengals makes more sense now. Initially classified as a heel injury, it's very likely that this stress fracture in his foot affected his performance from Week 9 onward, and possibly prior to that as well. 

Before his first limited practice in Week 9, Odunze was the WR10 in 0.5 PPR PPG from Weeks 1 to 8. From Weeks 9 to 13, he was the WR55 in 0.5 PPR PPG.

The Fall of Rome

Odunze's limited effectiveness and eventual absence led to the rise of Burden and Colston Loveland over the second half of the regular season and into the playoffs.

To an extent, it makes sense why there's so much hype surrounding Burden and Loveland. After all, fantasy football managers are fickle creatures with short memories. Drafters love pointing to shiny metrics like Burden's phenomenal 2.79 YPRR as a rookie, which ranked 3rd among all wide receivers.

And of course, Loveland's 137-yard effort in the comeback win over the Packers in the Wild Card round has already become the stuff of legends, gleefully reminisced about over shots of Malort. But, lost in the shuffle are other important metrics.

Shouldering the Burden

For starters, fantasy football managers have glossed over Burden's 7.7 average depth of target (aDOT), which ranked 87th among wide receivers. Johnson manufactured many of Burden's touches at or behind the line of scrimmage last year following the loss of Odunze, which should come as no surprise. At Missouri, he had a 15th-percentile aDOT, and a staggering 44% of his receptions came behind the line of scrimmage.

It's also concerning that after a sophomore breakout in 2023, Burden was able to earn just 6.8 targets per game in his final college season in 2024. That tied Theo Wease Jr., who recently went undrafted in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Another glaring red flag is the lack of touchdown production as a rookie. Burden had zero end-zone targets as a rookie, and he saw just seven red-zone targets last year, fewer than even Olamide Zaccheaus. And even in the four games without Odunze at the end of last season, Burden scored just one touchdown, and that came in a 38-42 shootout loss where Williams attempted a season-high 42 passes.

The ancillary metrics are great on paper, but Burden had just 1 game with over 12 fantasy points in 0.5 PPR scoring in his 4 games with Odunze inactive, and that was the aforementioned shootout against the 49ers in Week 17. While Burden showed flashes of tantalizing talent and speed as a rookie, he also contributed just six receptions across two playoff games.

His usage should and will increase with DJ Moore now in Buffalo, but Burden's projected target share and production in 2026 are far from certain. It's likely that Burden is being drafted closer to his ceiling than his floor at his current WR21 ADP.

All You Need is Loveland?

Another potential misstep for drafters correctly avoiding Burden's outrageously high ADP is pivoting to Loveland. Don't get me wrong: I'm thrilled with what we saw from him as a rookie. Many questioned the Bears' decision to draft him over Tyler Warren last year, but Loveland became the primary driver of Chicago's offense down the stretch in 2025 following Odunze's injury.

That said, it's also too early to anoint Loveland as the next Brock Bowers or Trey McBride. Neither of those elite fantasy tight ends has much target competition. The Raiders' wide receiver corps is a mess, and Marvin Harrison Jr. has yet to prove himself a legitimate No. 1 target in lieu of McBride.

Remember how Odunze first appeared on the injury report heading into Week 9? Well, it's quite a coincidence that Loveland's breakout performance was the shootout win over Cincinnati that week. From Weeks 1 through 8 last season, Loveland averaged just 1.8 receptions for 19 yards on 3.0 targets per game.

Then, from Week 9 through the postseason with Odunze active but not 100%, Loveland per-game averages shot up to 4.9 receptions for 66 yards on 7.4 targets. And in the five games Odunze missed from Weeks 14 to 18, Loveland's per-game averages spiked to 5.8 receptions for 70 yards on 8.3 targets per game!

Loveland projects to be an impactful piece of Chicago's offense going forward. He's too good not to be. But as with Burden, Loveland's impressive 1.96 YPRR (6th among tight ends) and 9.1 aDOT (3rd) are clouding the fact even in 5 games with Odunze inactive, Loveland still scored just 0.5 touchdowns per game and was the TE7 in 0.5 PPR PPG.

Lest we forget, Sam LaPorta was hailed as the next elite fantasy tight end once upon a time after he finished as the TE1 in fantasy as a rookie in 2023. He saw 120 targets and scored 10 touchdowns that season, but the volume was somewhat driven by Jameson Williams' suspension. With Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown both healthy and active the following year, LaPorta dropped to the TE9 in 0.5 PPR PPG in 2024.

What will Loveland's production look like in Year 2 with Odunze back healthy? It comes down to whether you think Odunze is an ancillary piece like Harrison in Arizona, or if he's more of a true No. 1 receiver like St. Brown in Detroit, albeit with a much different skill set and play style. 

Rome Wasn't Built in a Day