We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Cincinnati Bengals Coin-Toss Questions:
- Where do you rank Joe Burrow?
- Where do you stand on Chase Brown?
- Do you expect the Bengals to add an impact rookie running back?
- Do you expect Mike Gesicki to open camp as the starting tight end?
- Are you comfortable drafting Tee Higgins as your WR2?
Q: The Bengals quietly finished 11th in sack rate allowed (37 sacks). Assuming the line plays as well in 2026, where do you rank Joe Burrow?
Maurile Tremblay: If Burrow stays healthy, I'd slot him around QB3 to QB5. The talent is unambiguous: when he's on the field, he plays at an elite level. Chase and Higgins are one of the best pass-catching duos in football. What's historically been missing is decent pass-blocking. Correcting that would unlock a meaningful bump in production.
Jeff Haseley: If the line holds up like it did last year, Burrow is a top-3 fantasy quarterback. He's the engine of that team, and with a clean pocket, he's as clinical as they come.
Meng Song: Burrow will once again be called upon to win games in shootout mode, but it's hard to trust him staying healthy given the recent history of multi-week and season-ending injuries. Plus, his lack of rushing production makes him a slightly less enticing fantasy asset. I'd rank Burrow around QB9 heading into 2026.
Andy Hicks: The biggest concern with Burrow remains his durability. He has missed significant time in two of the last three seasons. He would be the highest-ranked, non-rushing-threat quarterback in the league. The reality is that only Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Sam Darnold belong in that same tier of fringe QB1 options. Without a meaningful rushing floor, it's easy to rank more mobile quarterbacks ahead of Joe Burrow. That said, the strength of the offense, Burrow's control within it, and his elite supporting cast still make him a clear top-six fantasy quarterback when healthy.
VERDICT: He's a top-5 fantasy quarterback.
Joe Burrow's injury history leaves much to be desired. However, we can't ignore his on-field performance. One could argue that he's the best pure pocket passer in the league. Would you honestly take Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, or Brock Purdy over Burrow if you knew all of them would be healthy for the entire season? Of course you wouldn't. Don't let what's happened in the past cloud your ability to project the future. Burrow is no more or less likely to miss time in 2026 than anyone else you're going to target as your QB1.
Q: Chase Brown finished RB8 last year on a per-game basis, but is being drafted as an RB2. Where do you stand on him?
Maurile Tremblay: Brown is a solid RB2. That draft position feels roughly correct, even if the per-game finish from 2025 looks tantalizing. Brown benefits from facing light boxes impelled by the passing game. But he's in a three-back rotation with Samaje Perine and Tahj Brooks that puts a soft ceiling on Brown's volume. He's the clear lead, but the Bengals aren't running him into the ground as a true bell cow.
Jeff Haseley: I'm a believer in Brown, but RB8 may be a bit lofty. I view him as a solid RB1/RB2 fringe player. He's explosive, but the Bengals usually like to mix up their backfield to maintain health throughout the year.
Meng Song: The market seems to be high on Burrow but not pricing in his injury risk of tanking the whole offense. However, that is adequately affecting Brown's draft position. He's probably slightly undervalued and should come off the board as a back-end RB1.
Andy Hicks: Brown was drafted higher in 2025 and, after seven weeks, was ranked 31st. He clawed back some value for those who needed him over the second half of the season, but some of those early games were brutal. He enters the last year of his rookie deal with a somewhat cloudy future ahead of him. The Bengals are working on an extension, but I remain skeptical until that happens. Brown needs to survive the draft without a legitimate threat to his role, and the Bengals need to be awake in the early part of the season. Back-to-back borderline RB1 seasons will likely inflate his draft cost beyond where it should be. At this stage, he's better valued as a low-end RB2 unless clear signs are pointing to a larger role or increased upside.
VERDICT: Brown is a low-end RB1 as long as the Bengals don't draft a high-end rookie.
I wouldn't worry about Samaje Perine or Tahj Brooks; Brown has proven over the last two seasons that he's a critical piece of the offense capable of helping regardless of the game script. I also don't think it's worth pointing out Brown's difficult start last year, because he went from RB31 in the first seven weeks to RB3 over the final ten. He was as elite a fantasy asset as you could ask for over the final 2.5 months. Unless the Bengals draft a running back in the first two rounds, Brown is and should remain an easy pick in the second or third round of 12-team drafts.
Q: Do you expect the Bengals to add an impact rookie running back? If not, is Samaje Perine a functional No. 2?
Maurile Tremblay: The Bengals shouldn't prioritize a running back in the draft. Defensive reinforcement should be the priority. The running back room already has competent depth. Perine is a reliable pass protector and short-yardage option, and Brooks could carve out a growing role. If the Bengals spend a draft pick on a running back, I'd expect it to be on Day 3.
Jeff Haseley: I think they add a mid-round rookie to push for touches. If they don't, Samaje Perine is a perfectly functional No. 2 back, especially in pass protection, which we know is priority number one for keeping Burrow upright.
Meng Song: Perhaps, but I think they're content with entering the season with Brown and Perine leading the backfield. Perine is exactly that — functional.
Andy Hicks: The Cincinnati Bengals need to improve their depth at running back. Samaje Perine has been in the league for nearly a decade, and his 394 rushing yards in 2022 remain his highest total since 2017. He's a capable No. 2 option or short-term starter, but little more. At this stage of his career, he's better suited to a third-string role. Tahj Brooks, a sixth-round pick from last year's draft, failed to impress in limited opportunities. While the draft remains the most logical path to address the position, the roster has multiple needs, and running back may not rank highly among the team's priorities.
VERDICT: A rookie No. 2 would be advisable, but not to challenge Brown.
I'm with Andy on this one. Calling Samaje Perine a functional No. 2 is an insult to the No. 2s throughout the league who can actually help carry an offense if their number is called. Perine is a change-of-pace option on his best day, and given his age and lack of career achievement, we can safely say his best days are behind him.
